2-pair + flush draw on turn

Consider villian's range to be 72o - AA at $25NL

Board:


Hero holds:


Deep stacked, facing a 100BB+ shove, how often are we shipping it in?

Things to consider:
villain has a made straight
villain has a set
villain has a better 2-pair/worse 2-pair
villain has nut flush draw
villain has AK
villain has second/third pair or a total bluff

What's the preflop and flop action?

against a straight we have 4 outs to a boat, 9 outs to the flush, none of which could be spades since we already hold those two cards, so we have 13 outs with 46 cards left in the deck, that's 28.2% to win
against a set of 8s, we need a king or ten or a spade, which is 28.2%
against a set of queens or tens we need a flush or a king only which is 2 + 9 cards = 11 outs which is 23.9% to win
against a set of kings we can only get a flush to win, which is 9 outs = 19.6% chance to win
against a KQ we have a ten or flush draw = 23.9% to win
against another KT we need 9 cards to win, otherwise we draw, 19.6% to win, 80.4% to tie - 59.8% equity
against K8 he needs an 8 to win, we win 95.7% of the time
against the nut flush draw he has 9 cards to win, we have 80.4% chance to win
against AK he needs a non-spade A to win, of which there are two in the deck, we win 95.7% of the time
against second pair he needs a queen to win it, which is 95.7% the time our pot
pair of eights needs another 8, we win 97.8% of the time
a total bluff is drawing dead, we win 100% of the time

we're shipping it in if we can put our villain on the bottom part of the range you just gave

if the villain only plays two pair+ here I think we have to fold unless pot odds dictate a call

If I'm at the Turn, and villains range is that wide, he's uber-retarded...

so I ship it in pretty much 100% of the time 'cause he's gonna have bullsh!t far more often than he has any of the things that beat me.

Originally Posted by iopq

against a straight we have 4 outs to a boat, 9 outs to the flush, none of which could be spades since we already hold those two cards, so we have 13 outs with 46 cards left in the deck, that's 28.2% to win
against a set of 8s, we need a king or ten or a spade, which is 28.2%
against a set of queens or tens we need a flush or a king only which is 2 + 9 cards = 11 outs which is 23.9% to win
against a set of kings we can only get a flush to win, which is 9 outs = 19.6% chance to win
against a KQ we have a ten or flush draw = 23.9% to win
against another KT we need 9 cards to win, otherwise we draw, 19.6% to win, 80.4% to tie - 59.8% equity
against K8 he needs an 8 to win, we win 95.7% of the time
against the nut flush draw he has 9 cards to win, we have 80.4% chance to win
against AK he needs a non-spade A to win, of which there are two in the deck, we win 95.7% of the time
against second pair he needs a queen to win it, which is 95.7% the time our pot
pair of eights needs another 8, we win 97.8% of the time
a total bluff is drawing dead, we win 100% of the time

we're shipping it in if we can put our villain on the bottom part of the range you just gave

if the villain only plays two pair+ here I think we have to fold unless pot odds dictate a call

This is a great post and I like the way you layed it out. However, I wish there was a way to include the total per centage of his chance of hitting.

His chance of hitting is 100% - our % {acronym Renton hates}

would you please post the HH?

equity in iopqs post is assuming that there is not a cent in the pot on the turn... which seems to be the case as far as we know.

Originally Posted by settecba

would you please post the HH?

There is no HH. This hand popped in my hand the other night so I posted it here to get some feedback on different people here would play it.

Originally Posted by Mezza Morta

Originally Posted by settecba

would you please post the HH?

There is no HH. This hand popped in my hand the other night so I posted it here to get some feedback on different people here would play it.

"Results may very"

depends on previous action

dont you mean "popped up in my HEAD"?

LOL why not, but you know what I meant. I'm calling this game on account of a technicality.

wellrounded is right...results may vary depending on previous action, so trying to figure out what to do with this hand without further information is useless. If this is an example you just made up, you might as well think of the preflop-flop action and post it

Originally Posted by settecba

wellrounded is right...results may vary depending on previous action, so trying to figure out what to do with this hand without further information is useless. If this is an example you just made up, you might as well think of the preflop-flop action and post it

Well, it's still a good exercise to figure out what the odds are against possible villain's holdings

Originally Posted by iopq

His chance of hitting is 100% - our % {acronym Renton hates}

Thanks for your rapid reply.

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by settecba

wellrounded is right...results may vary depending on previous action, so trying to figure out what to do with this hand without further information is useless. If this is an example you just made up, you might as well think of the preflop-flop action and post it

Well, it's still a good exercise to figure out what the odds are against possible villain's holdings

It is. I agree. It wouldn´t answer OPs question "how often are we shipping it in?" without a range for villain, but it is a nice exercise.

Originally Posted by iopq

Well, it's still a good exercise to figure out what the odds are against possible villain's holdings

= the reason I posted this.

Villain's wide open range combined with this situation asks what types of hands can villain show us and still make the call.

This pretty much nailed it:

against a straight we have 4 outs to a boat, 9 outs to the flush, none of which could be spades since we already hold those two cards, so we have 13 outs with 46 cards left in the deck, that's 28.2% to win
against a set of 8s, we need a king or ten or a spade, which is 28.2%
against a set of queens or tens we need a flush or a king only which is 2 + 9 cards = 11 outs which is 23.9% to win
against a set of kings we can only get a flush to win, which is 9 outs = 19.6% chance to win
against a KQ we have a ten or flush draw = 23.9% to win
against another KT we need 9 cards to win, otherwise we draw, 19.6% to win, 80.4% to tie - 59.8% equity
against K8 he needs an 8 to win, we win 95.7% of the time
against the nut flush draw he has 9 cards to win, we have 80.4% chance to win
against AK he needs a non-spade A to win, of which there are two in the deck, we win 95.7% of the time
against second pair he needs a queen to win it, which is 95.7% the time our pot
pair of eights needs another 8, we win 97.8% of the time
a total bluff is drawing dead, we win 100% of the time