2 hands vs the same dude

this guy is 13.6/10.9 over 110 hands he has an aggression factor of 4 and a cbet of 100%


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP2) ($12.31)
CO ($19.82)
Button ($3.90)
SB ($3.62)
BB ($7)
UTG ($10.15)
UTG+1 ($10.15)
MP1 ($5.34)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J, J
UTG bets $0.40, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.40, 1 fold, Button calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.35) 8, 5, 5 (3 players)
UTG bets $1, Hero calls $1, 1 fold

Turn: ($3.35) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $2, Hero calls $2

River: ($7.35) K (2 players)
UTG bets $6.75 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $7.35 | Rake: $0.49

gay river...his utg range seems to be 77+Ak, AQs...i guess with such a high AF he could be 2 barrelling the entire range, but probably more likely just the sets, overpairs and his AKss (maybe a few more AK's) and AQss.
On the river I think its just 88,99,KK AA AKss (again maybe a few more ak's), and i guess for balance we can throw in a missed AQss.

I need about 32% equity to call the river based on the pot odds, and even if i include JJ and TT in his range (which i highly doubt are there) then i still only have 25% equity (range i used was 88+,AsKs,AsQs)



Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($11.47)
SB ($9.75)
BB ($3.85)
UTG ($11.35)
UTG+1 ($10)
MP1 ($7.77)
MP2 ($10)
MP3 ($10)
CO ($6.72)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 10
1 fold, UTG+1 checks, 1 fold, MP2 bets $0.60, MP3 calls $0.60, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.60, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.65) J, 5, A (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 1 fold

Turn: ($6.65) 6 (2 players)
MP2 bets $4, Hero folds

Total pot: $6.65 | Rake: $0.44

turn commits me so i guess if i am going to play i need to just shove, it sucks because he is so aggressive (again AF of 4) that i am not sure how much more air i should be including in his range. But here i think he has sets and higher aces and two pairs, a lot more than Gutshots, KK,QQ

anyone?

1 fold, UTG+1 checks .............. wat?

Anyway. Hand 1 looks fine. I assume if the river was anything but a A,K,Q you'd be calling even if he still bet the same amount? At least I hope you would.

In hand 2 I assume you are calling with some sort of implied odds hope since this guy clearly has a very strong UTG range and AT is almost never going to be the best hand on an A high board where he continues to lead. With that said, I think the flop peel is fine since he could be cbetting this with his lower PP and you can also pick up quite a few cards to help your equity as you have runner runner flush and straight draws along with a T for 2pair. However, once he leads twice and you don't improve you have to be able to get away from the mediocre A hands which is something most micro stakes players are incapable of doing.

Against a looser opponent I wouldn't have a problem calling the turn or getting it in even vs a UTG. But against this guy folding seems fine.

Originally Posted by Donachello

1 fold, UTG+1 checks .............. wat?

Dead blind, aka he's a moran.

Hand 1) With 100% cbet don't we have to assume he's firing air w/ hands like AK?Raise flop,shove river.
Hand 2)It seems like more of villains starting range hits this flop but for me it's hard to get away from tpgk here.It's prolly a fold.

Originally Posted by supahaole

Hand 1) With 100% cbet don't we have to assume he's firing air w/ hands like AK?Raise flop,shove river.

I don't think you quite understand the concept of range vs range play

Originally Posted by Donachello

I don't think you quite understand the concept of range vs range play

Thats defo true.I should prolly state when I chime in on a post that I have no clue what I'm talking about and that it's purely for my own education.So any reasoning as to why I'm wrong or what points I'm missing is greatly appreciated.

I'll try this using Phillys original range on villain since I believe that w/100% cbet we need to assume that villains range hasn't changed postflop.My reasoning is that out of 13 or 14 hands he's gotta be firing on air some of the time.Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Flop-

356,400 games 0.005 secs 71,280,000 games/sec
Board: 8s 5d 5s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.064% 54.27% 00.80% 193413 2835.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 44.936% 44.14% 00.80% 157317 2835.00 { 77+, AQs+, AKo }

So yeah,raise.

Turn-

15,048 games 0.005 secs 3,009,600 games/sec
Board: 8s 5d 5s 9c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.595% 50.72% 00.88% 7632 132.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 48.405% 47.53% 00.88% 7152 132.00 { 77+, AQs+, AKo }

We only need 27% equity here so w/51% I still think we shove.Again,please correct me if I'm wrong.

River-

The K changes things quite a bit but I don't think we should be here in the first place so as played...

300 games 0.005 secs 60,000 games/sec
Board: 8s 5d 5s 9c Kc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.000% 32.00% 01.00% 96 3.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 67.000% 66.00% 01.00% 198 3.00 { 77+, AQs+, AKo }

If we only need 32% equity then we call.

I'll try the second hand later.

Originally Posted by supahaole

I'll try this using Phillys original range on villain since I believe that w/100% cbet we need to assume that villains range hasn't changed postflop.My reasoning is that out of 13 or 14 hands he's gotta be firing on air some of the time.Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Flop-

356,400 games 0.005 secs 71,280,000 games/sec
Board: 8s 5d 5s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.064% 54.27% 00.80% 193413 2835.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 44.936% 44.14% 00.80% 157317 2835.00 { 77+, AQs+, AKo }

So yeah,raise.

Turn-

15,048 games 0.005 secs 3,009,600 games/sec
Board: 8s 5d 5s 9c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.595% 50.72% 00.88% 7632 132.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 48.405% 47.53% 00.88% 7152 132.00 { 77+, AQs+, AKo }

We only need 27% equity here so w/51% I still think we shove.Again,please correct me if I'm wrong.

River-

The K changes things quite a bit but I don't think we should be here in the first place so as played...

300 games 0.005 secs 60,000 games/sec
Board: 8s 5d 5s 9c Kc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.000% 32.00% 01.00% 96 3.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 67.000% 66.00% 01.00% 198 3.00 { 77+, AQs+, AKo }

If we only need 32% equity then we call.

I'll try the second hand later.

he is not firing his entire range on the turn...and either way you have to think of his calling range vs his betting range...he is firing his entire range on the flop true..if i raise he is probably only calling with sets overpairs and flushdraws a range against which i have only 25% equity...also on the river he is not shoving all of his AQ hands so we have a lot less equity than that.

H1- ss is tiny so his agg. may be meaningless, but I guess it's ok. Folding the turn is nitty but the villain is also playing nitty, and it seems like you're facing a bet on most rivers here.
H2- I squeeze. I dont think your hand is rly that great IO wise but has nifty card removal for his continuing range vs. a squeeze, so I would argue that's where you'd get the most value.

Something interesting is your analysis for the turn in H1 vs. H2, when you're very nearly committed when you call in H1 and probably so in H2 as well. Makes me want to fold both turns even more tbh.

Originally Posted by Illfavor

H1- ss is tiny so his agg. may be meaningless, but I guess it's ok. Folding the turn is nitty but the villain is also playing nitty, and it seems like you're facing a bet on most rivers here.
H2- I squeeze. I dont think your hand is rly that great IO wise but has nifty card removal for his continuing range vs. a squeeze, so I would argue that's where you'd get the most value.

Something interesting is your analysis for the turn in H1 vs. H2, when you're very nearly committed when you call in H1 and probably so in H2 as well. Makes me want to fold both turns even more tbh.

h1 i have 6.75 left for river after turn thats not very committed imo and i know im facing a bet on most rivers, i want a bet, i want value from his tt,and overcards, but the river kicks me in the nuts.

h2 i would like the squeeze but i think its a lot stickier squeezing an utg raise cause the majority of his range can continue, also i guess i should have posted it but he has a fold to 3bet of 50% (although only 4 opportunities)

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

h1 i have 6.75 left for river after turn thats not very committed imo and i know im facing a bet on most rivers, i want a bet, i want value from his tt,and overcards, but the river kicks me in the nuts.

h2 i would like the squeeze but i think its a lot stickier squeezing an utg raise cause the majority of his range can continue, also i guess i should have posted it but he has a fold to 3bet of 50% (although only 4 opportunities)

H1- Imo when most nit types triple barrel this board JJ isn't ever good. If you want value from TT there's also the caveat of the other 18 combos over overpairs that you're towning yourself against. If you think he's barreling his entire UTG range on f/t then the call is cool but I don't think you can call a bet on even non-K rivers, nor should you want one.

H2- Maybe I misread the hand or it's misconverted, but it appears it's a MP iso raise/flat you'd be squeezing...which is not a strong range at all, and I'd expect two folds 90% of the time.

Originally Posted by Illfavor

H1- Imo when most nit types triple barrel this board JJ isn't ever good. If you want value from TT there's also the caveat of the other 18 combos over overpairs that you're towning yourself against. If you think he's barreling his entire UTG range on f/t then the call is cool but I don't think you can call a bet on even non-K rivers, nor should you want one.

H2- Maybe I misread the hand or it's misconverted, but it appears it's a MP iso raise/flat you'd be squeezing...which is not a strong range at all, and I'd expect two folds 90% of the time.

1. so you advocate folding turn?
2. yea i am an idiot its an mp raise...still worried about his low fold to 3b but yea i feel ya, i like squeezing in general but its not something i had even considered in this spot for some reason...good looks