@ surviva
thanks for clarifying that. i pretty much treated my hand as the same in relative strength in both spots. didn't really consider the effect the 8 combos of AJ have in making my equity so much worse in hand one.
here we have my hand vs practically (if not precisely) identical ranges of sets, 89s, roughly 3 combos each of TT+ (discounted because KK+ gets 3bet pre at least 50%, and most villains will realise TT,JJ are no good facing such flop heat), ATss+, and the mother draws (7s6s, JsTs)
Board: 2d 8s 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.933% 46.93% 00.00% 300901 0.00 { 2h2s }
Hand 1: 25.166% 25.11% 00.05% 160995 351.00 { AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 99-88, AsKs, AsQs, 98s }
Hand 2: 27.901% 27.85% 00.05% 178532 351.00 { AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ, JdJh, JhJs, TdTh, ThTs, 99-88, AsKs, AsQs, JsTs, 98s, 7s6s }
so hand 2 is looking like a snapcall, as surviva first said. i just felt that if both villains ranges are either really strong hands (all sets beat me) and strong draws, the likelihood of ONE of them having a set is too great to risk getting 250bb in because, despite my absolute hand strength, it doesn't take pokerstove to know that bottom set<flush draw<top set if we get it all in and with such hands.
anyway, i feel this thread has reached its potential in that my question regarding how to calculate the EV has been answered, as well as good input about villain's ranges. so i'll let the cat out of the bag.
hand one i jammed, CO folded, SB showed Axcc and binked the river
hand two i folded, and SB called, showing 88, which held up against the BB's JsKs.
i realise now that i gave the BB way too much credit in hand two. i just weighted his range so much towards "made hands" when he leads and then 4bet jams 250bb. i honestly felt it was exclusively 88,99, and sometimes 89s, however i am way more dead to 88,99 (6 combos) than he is when he has 1 of the 3 possible combos of 89s vs my 22. however what i didnt adequately consider is that the combos of hands that beat me are so thin that he doesn't need many combos of FD's or retarded TT+ to make this a call. which it obviously was (results aside).
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