2 10NL AI flop decisions not closing action

it occurred to me in my recent session that, as obvious as i'm sure it will be when i learn the answer, i don't know how to calculate the EV of a call of an all-in when there is another player to act behind me, ie im not closing the action. i mean if it's heads up we calculate equity versus villain's shoving range and compare that to the pot odds we are receiving. i can't just do that when there is someone to act behind me. anyway. here are the hands.


Hand 1

-limp/caller is 25/13 over 8 (iso might be a bit light but meh)
-CO is 60/20 over 5, and recently called an UTG open with J6s in the CO or HJ and bet an A62 flop something small like 1/4PSB or something. he quite probably sucks and is not straighforward.
-SB is 50/0 over 6.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (MP3) ($25.16)
CO ($18.96)
Button ($12.97)
SB ($7.77)
BB ($10.71)
UTG ($12.03)
UTG+1 ($6.96)
MP1 ($5.33)
MP2 ($22.07)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K, J
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.50, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB calls $0.45, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.40
Flop: ($2.28) J, 2, 5 (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.70, CO raises to $3.50, SB raises to $7.25 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero?


some ranges then:
i'd say the CO is raising with 22,55,JJ,J9+ and some combos of flush draws, i'll say A3cc,A4cc,A6cc-ATcc,AQcc,AKcc,KQcc,KTcc,QTcc

against this range in isolation i have
Board: Js 2c 5c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.826% 58.92% 00.91% 18665 288.00 { KdJc }
Hand 1: 40.174% 39.26% 00.91% 12439 288.00 { JJ, 55, 22, AcKc, AcQc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac4c, Ac3c, J9s+, J9o+ }


then the SB jams. based on the small sample of hands, if we can tell anything at all, it is likely this guy is bad (because he has limped 3 times, all of which would have been in LP, most good regs are raising most pots they enter from LP, definitely more than 0/3). because he has seen most of the action on the flop, i think even the dumbest of players know that JQ or worse is no good here. i'll say he's jamming 22,55,JQ+,and all 9 Axcc draws.

against which i have:
Board: Js 2c 5c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.208% 35.14% 08.07% 13219 3036.00 { KdJc }
Hand 1: 56.792% 48.72% 08.07% 18329 3036.00 { JJ, 55, 22, AcKc, AcQc, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac4c, Ac3c, KJs, QJs, AJo, KJo, QJo }

against both ranges (if they were both already all in with the same ranges) i have:

Board: Js 2c 5c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.092% 17.58% 05.51% 222890 69876.00 { KdJc }
Hand 1: 31.438% 28.29% 03.15% 358651 39926.00 { JJ, 55, 22, AcKc, AcQc, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac4c, Ac3c, KJs, QJs, J9s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+ }
Hand 2: 45.470% 41.04% 04.43% 520267 56202.00 { JJ, 55, 22, AcKc, AcQc, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac4c, Ac3c, KJs, QJs, AJo, KJo, QJo }

i'm assuming flatting is out of the question because of the ridiculous SPR? do we jam or fold? or is flatting an option?

Hand 2

flop leader is 26/14/0 over 35 and is yet to have the chance to donk
C/Raiser is 29/7/0 over 68 and HAS check/raised 2 out of 8 prior opportunities on the flop

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($14.26)
BB ($27.31)
UTG ($10.61)
MP1 ($13.71)
Hero (MP2) ($39.81)
CO ($54.04)
Button ($11.20)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 2, 2
2 folds, Hero bets $0.40, 2 folds, SB calls $0.35, BB calls $0.30
Flop: ($1.34) 2, 8, 9 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $1, Hero raises to $3, SB raises to $5.90, BB raises to $26.89 (All-In), Hero?

against BB alone (in terms of pot odds and equity) i am getting 1.5(ish):1 on my call, so i need 42% against his range, which means he only needs to be doing this with 3 flush draw combos in order to be roughly breakeven against his range:

Board: 2d 8s 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.182% 43.18% 00.00% 5130 0.00 { 2h2s }
Hand 1: 56.818% 56.82% 00.00% 6750 0.00 { 99-88, As7s, As6s, As5s, 98s }

however, as y'all may notice, we are quite deep, and remarkable strength has been shown on this flop already. i'm not sure many 10nlers just jam 250bb over 100bb with a FD when the flop has been already 3bet.
anyway, thoughts on either hand, or dealing with all-ins when not closing the action, would be appreciated. thanks

oh, i'm also interested to know how you guys feel stack sizes affect these. you'll notice that in hand 1, i am deep against the player who closes the action. whereas in hand two, the effective stack has already been put in the middle. does this change how conservative i should be in putting my stack in?

you need to set up the co's calling range, if you think he is stacking off that entire range you gave him then its just like with the other,

How much you win * equity, minus how much you lose * 1-equity = EV

if you dont think hes calling his entire range, then you do the %of the time he calls(how much you win vs both of them* equity- how much you lose vs both of them * 1-equity) + %of the time he folds ( how much you win vs the SB * equity - how much you lose vs sb * 1-equity)


i hope this makes sense

there's a lot to address here, and i'm at work so i neither have enough time nor the proper tools (i.e. pokerstove) to get to it all. but philly sufficiently answered your general question and as for hand 1:

the iso of the 25/13 is not marginal, and i'm interested to hear why you think it is: 1) if you're at a table where you can't profitably OPEN KJo from the HJ, then you should consider leaving the table 'cause it likely sucks, 2) the fact that there's a limper in front of you makes this even more +EV--if he's a fish, then you're iso'ing someone so you can value town him when you hit, if he's a setmine fish, then you're printing money for the times he plays fit or fold postflop.

kind of nit picky, but this could be helpful. i wouldn't take so much time to note positions in your note on the 60/20. my note would prolly just say "1/4 PSB IP w J6s on A6x when villain waived cbet," or something like that. it doesn't matter where villain opened from or what position HE'S in or even the fact that he called with a garbagy suited jack preflop 'cause he's not noting position and i would always have this hand in his range.

as for the hand itself, it's a shame you don't have any postflop reads on CO, but i'd still definitely lead toward takin' just about all the combos of value hands that we have beat out of CO's c/power raising range. He could have a lot of the FD's that you mentioned, but i wouldn't expect all of them. i would also make SB's range stronger, like mostly the nuts, AJ, and combo draws. i know he's an unknown, but i don't expect this player to re-re-raise shove here without something that he thinks is the nuts. that means that most of the time we're going to behind drawing to very little if not drawing dead, and the other times we're going to be up against very very strong draws. CO'll be taking a weird line and fold here every once in a while, but even then, we're far behind SB's range anyway.

well i thought that i didn't have time to address hand 2, but the only question really to be asked in this hand is whether you wanna snap call or make it look like you're thinking a little bit before calling.

he needs to have almost no combos of spazzes in his range for this to be a call and his overshove looks more spazzy, then it looks like 99/88. I'm not totally completely utterly shocked when he shows up with something as bad as A9s here

thanks for the replies guys.

@ surviva

i'm getting confused by each answer. in hand one...

"would also make SB's range stronger, like mostly the nuts, AJ, and combo draws. i know he's an unknown, but i don't expect this player to re-re-raise shove here without something that he thinks is the nuts. that means that most of the time we're going to behind drawing to very little if not drawing dead, and the other times we're going to be up against very very strong draws"

we are giving a 50/0 credit for a monster hand when he check/jams with 70bb stack

and in hand two, a 26/14 leads from the SB, and 4bet jams 250bb and

"the only question really to be asked in this hand is whether you wanna snap call or make it look like you're thinking a little bit before calling."

don't these player tendencies and actions make hand 2 a far harder decision? what makes villain in hand 2's range so much weaker? there is a flush draw on both boards. if anything i would have thought a 50/0 70bb deep fish would have way more spazz than a 26/14 250bb deep player, especially since this player lead the flop and made the 4th bet?

re analysis, you're doing the stove part fine. Get a % vs the range, etc. Now you can typically assume that everyone is getting it in for spots like these, then it all gets pretty simple.

hand 1 - preflop iso is absolutely standard. So is flop c-bet. I think you should take out a few of the flush combos from CO's range, and add a few Jx hands. SB has a very few nut draws and Jx+ (i.e. hands top pair and better) about always - he typically thinks his hand is nut once he cold 3bets the flop, the remaining question is merely 'does he think JT is nut?'. Thing about this hand is that folding isn't awful for stacks deep with a fairly marginal hand - cos all it takes is for your ranges to be a bit out and your close call is in fact awful. Anyway, snap folding ain't a leak here.

hand 2 - you can fold bottom set sometimes. Thing is that two players are getting pretty damn aggro, meaning that only one of them can have the ace draws. This leads to a situation that forces one player's range even further towards sets. BB's range is TsJs/6s7s/88/99/89s/TT+/AsKs/AsQs with weighting towards QQ+ and sets, SB has a very strong range, make it similar and then stove how you're doing against the both of them. And then fold, and don't even hate life too much when they flop TsJs/AsKs to block each other

i'll do some more in cold hard mathematical analysis later when i have the time. but thanks for the replying. basically what you said in analysis of hand two was what was fucking with me. it confused me that both of their ranges were pretty similar (ie nut hands and nut draws), in such a way that heads up it's probably a call, but 3-handed i pretty much have 4% if anyone has a set (which i felt was super likely, though i couldnt put a % on it), and i'm usually just providing some extra $$ for the dude with the flush draw when he hits. i'll do some ranges and weighting and equity and other such mathematical activities and post them here later.

just to clarify, daven, in hand two, you're saying that we assume that the guy behind us calls 100%, so we can effectively count his stack as part of the pot? and then compare that to how much we are calling (aka pot odds) and then decided whether it's a call or not based on our equity against both ranges? is that correct?

oh yeah and i would have considered the PF iso in hand one super-standard a month ago, but then it came to my attention that i may have been isoing super wide, so i decided to tighten up. now i am questioning whether i am too tight. waddafish.

Originally Posted by rpm

we are giving a 50/0 credit for a monster hand when he check/jams with 70bb stack

and in hand two, a 26/14 leads from the SB, and 4bet jams 250bb

the biggest, most obvious difference between the two hands is that in hand 2 there are 6 big whopping combos of hands that beat us, whereas in hand one, we have to scrape together hands that we beat that he could be doing this for value. also, in hand 2, we have more equity against draws (obv a smaller difference).

another big difference is that CO's range in hand 1 is stronger than SB's in hand 2...in fact i expect SB to fold a decent amount here.

basically in hand one we're hoping that one player shows up wiht the unlikely QJ/JT BS that he's rarely going to show up with and the other player to show up with the NFD (which has like 45% equity against us), and for our hand to hold. in hand 2, we're hoping we don't see the 6 combos of hands that have us beat.

@ surviva
thanks for clarifying that. i pretty much treated my hand as the same in relative strength in both spots. didn't really consider the effect the 8 combos of AJ have in making my equity so much worse in hand one.

here we have my hand vs practically (if not precisely) identical ranges of sets, 89s, roughly 3 combos each of TT+ (discounted because KK+ gets 3bet pre at least 50%, and most villains will realise TT,JJ are no good facing such flop heat), ATss+, and the mother draws (7s6s, JsTs)


Board: 2d 8s 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.933% 46.93% 00.00% 300901 0.00 { 2h2s }
Hand 1: 25.166% 25.11% 00.05% 160995 351.00 { AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 99-88, AsKs, AsQs, 98s }
Hand 2: 27.901% 27.85% 00.05% 178532 351.00 { AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ, JdJh, JhJs, TdTh, ThTs, 99-88, AsKs, AsQs, JsTs, 98s, 7s6s }

so hand 2 is looking like a snapcall, as surviva first said. i just felt that if both villains ranges are either really strong hands (all sets beat me) and strong draws, the likelihood of ONE of them having a set is too great to risk getting 250bb in because, despite my absolute hand strength, it doesn't take pokerstove to know that bottom set<flush draw<top set if we get it all in and with such hands.

anyway, i feel this thread has reached its potential in that my question regarding how to calculate the EV has been answered, as well as good input about villain's ranges. so i'll let the cat out of the bag.

hand one i jammed, CO folded, SB showed Axcc and binked the river
hand two i folded, and SB called, showing 88, which held up against the BB's JsKs.

i realise now that i gave the BB way too much credit in hand two. i just weighted his range so much towards "made hands" when he leads and then 4bet jams 250bb. i honestly felt it was exclusively 88,99, and sometimes 89s, however i am way more dead to 88,99 (6 combos) than he is when he has 1 of the 3 possible combos of 89s vs my 22. however what i didnt adequately consider is that the combos of hands that beat me are so thin that he doesn't need many combos of FD's or retarded TT+ to make this a call. which it obviously was (results aside).

now you have to adjust future ranges vs this guy to include kjss cause that was not i nthe initial range when you decided whether to call or not.

"donk/4bet jams 782tt w/KhFD 250bb deep"