10NL, rivered set facing shove

OP hand is different from bikes' hand in a ton of ways

hard to imagine bikes' hand isn't a crying call given we have correct odds to call if his range is nothing but boats and quads. so in order for it to be a fold, villain has to NEVER vbet worse than a boat, NEVER EVER EVER EVER bluff, ALWAYS play 99/KK AND be significantly less likely to play 22 this way

as for OP's hand, we only have a 6 hand sample on villain and there's no certainty he's a reg much less a nit. in fact, in order for him to play 54s this way, he has to be a fish. a fish is definitely going to view any set or better as the nuts since our hand looks so weak, and our line looks so full of shit. i'm not even completely surprised if villain spazzed here, afterall we're repping three combos (we just happen to have that hand)

Originally Posted by surviva316

hard to imagine bikes' hand isn't a crying call given we have correct odds to call if his range is nothing but boats and quads. so in order for it to be a fold, villain has to NEVER vbet worse than a boat, NEVER EVER EVER EVER bluff, ALWAYS play 99/KK AND be significantly less likely to play 22 this way

This is FR and he is a nit, so it seems very reasonable to think that 22 is not in his UTG opening range pre. Even if he does it with AdQd, it's still a fold. Also I don't play at these stakes, but it doesn't seem to me it's a good spot for a bluff?

Pot odds are 36.2%.

3 combos of KK, 1 combo of JJ, 1 combo of AdQd: we win only 20%.

I agree that Mike's hand is different and 6 hands is not enough to call the guy a nit.