|
If on the flop, you put at least one of them on 9x, why the hell would you bet the turn? that makes no sense. I wouldn't assume these loose donks have 9x given the flop action, but given the turn action I would say one of them has it or better most of the time.
So given that you're beat, you have 14 outs to improve, but given some boat possibilities, we've gotta take some of those outs away.
I'm gunna assume that both donks are getting their stacks in the middle here, which means it's about $8 to win $30 for you, or 1:3.75 on yer monies, which means you need about 21% equity to breakeven.
14 outs gives you roughly 28%, so the question is "how likely is a boat?". These are donks we're dealing with, there's probably a lot more trips/straights in their ranges, so maybe we take away 3-4 outs giving you about 20-22% equity?
It's pretty damned close and I don't really hate either option. Kinda a gross spot yah. I maybe err on the side of the lower variance fold cuz like zomg of course one of the donk has a boat, and there is always some slight chance that the seemingly committed SB will do something stupid like fold which hurts your pot odds (slight chance I know), and I'm not sure I took enough outs away.
|