10NL : Horrible turn card OOP

Less than 50 hands on villian so no reads.

Preflop and flop very std imo.

What a horrible turn card. Should i continue with the lead. Is this a check/call turn or a check/fold?

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

CO: $10.10
BTN: $6.10
SB: $3.75
Hero (BB): $10.50
UTG: $12.90
MP: $11.50

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with Q Q
3 folds, BTN calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) 8 J 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, BTN calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.05) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1, Hero?

Bet/fold turn like $1.70ish.

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Bet/fold turn like $1.70ish.

+1

As played - its villain dependent for me. I think I call here and re evaluate the river.

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Bet/fold turn like $1.70ish.

Is this the standard line OOP with an overpair HU? Arent i value owning myself a lot here when a card hit that completes flushes and straights ?

If i was in position then would a check be be better ? Going for a check/call on river.

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Bet/fold turn like $1.70ish.

I like this also.

Look at his range and your other options. Say we check, he is likely to check back the turn with most hands that we beat (Jx, Flush draws, combo draws, etc). So a check/raise is bad as we rarely, if ever, get it in good. And a check/call isn't great because there are so many terrible river cards for our hand.

So really anything that involves checking on this turn isn't that great, other than maybe check/folding, but I still think we are likely ahead of his turn calling range as we can expect to see him call with hands like {QJ+, pair + FD, straight draw + flush draw, etc} and there are quite a few out there. So not only does our bet still get value on the turn, we can also be pretty sure we are beat if he ships over the turn.

Ok i am now understand that betting the turn is the right line here, but now what is our river line ?

Say another suit or connector card drops are we then check/folding ?

Say the river bricks are we then check/calling ?

River plays comes down to a huge range analysis. You need to make some assumptions about the player given your stats/reads. Is this villain likely to still call a river bet with his Jx hands? If so, how many combos is that? How many combos of draws do you think is in his range? Given his range do you have enough equity (>50%) to value bet? If so, then a value bet becomes +EV, but it doesn't mean it's the best play. Checking could hold my value in that he is might be likely to bet worse hands with a higher frequency when you check to him, than he is willing to call your bets with worse hands. If this is the case, and given pot odds he gives you on a check/call, then that might be the appropriate action.

It's really all dependent on the assumptions you can make about the villain, and what's left in his range on the river (would he flat his completed draws on the turn or not?).

Originally Posted by Evilpopcorn

Is this the standard line OOP with an overpair HU? Arent i value owning myself a lot here when a card hit that completes flushes and straights ?

If i was in position then would a check be be better ? Going for a check/call on river.

i wouldn't worry about straights so much, only one of them completed and we don't even know if that one made it this far. you HAVE to b/f here and i know it sucks but this is like THE DEFINITION of why being OOP sucks.

i would say that if we were in position with an overpair and the flush completed that we can check behind and extract on the river, but let me ask you this. can you name more than like 10 cards that AREN'T a scare card for you on the river. gotta get some of his monies in here.

as played call this against most opponents. if you have a read on opponent that this bet is probably a draw, then i'd c/r his buns.

check/call is a much beter line with with a heart. Without a heart bet/fold has more merit.