10nl flopped quads - max value?

Villain is 50/27. I have him marked as a spewfish, but he's slightly cannier at 10nl than he was at 5nl. I personally think my river overbet was greedy.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($18.06)
UTG ($13.99)
MP ($12.34)
CO ($10.55)
Hero (Button) ($15.71)
SB ($10.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 8
1 fold, MP bets $0.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.40, 1 fold, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) 7, 8, 8 (3 players)
BB bets $1.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.20

Turn: ($3.65) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.70, BB calls $1.70

River: ($7.05) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12.41 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $7.05 | Rake: $0.34

Bet more turn, fairly draw heavy etc etc. Than probably like 1/2 pot river depending on what the river is(unless he's an absolute station than just bet enough on turn to setup stacks properly on river)

I agree, I think it was too big. To call the bet is almost the same as the pot size which means he has to pretty much certain he is going to win the hand to call. Also, to call the all-in will cost him most of what he has left in his stack.

Awful river card. I'm betting 1/2 pot and hopefully getting a call from Tx, 7x and pocket pairs. Doubt he'll call 1/2 pot with A-high here. If he's got sets or an unlikely J9 you stack him but even a spewfish isn't calling a 120bb river bet without a very strong hand.

in b4 lock.

Max value is 1 penny less than the amount you think your opponent will fold for.

A huge overshove on the river is not going to get any other reaction at your level then "oh ok I fold" here.

Also, I'm pretty sure you could have made turn larger to help induce a river crying call if your opponent isn't drawing to a flush/straight, and River you probably don't get anything ever from flush/straight unless opponent is me.. but I'm terrible.

Put him on a range first of all. If you bet turn small then I def. bet river small (think ranges); therefore, I'd bet bigger on the turn and bet river like 2/3 or something. Honestly it looks like he has shit but then again we have no reads.

$3.15 on the turn. On the river, the hands you can expect to get value from are usually Tx shit like 99 and maybe 7x. If he's really stationy I'd bet close to pot on river since I doubt he folds too much of this range. Bet the turn corrctly while he has a bunch of draws in his range that aren't folding and you have an easier time extracting on the river without giving him a reason to fold Tx 99 etc

50/27? Why not 3-bet for value pf.. then you are all in by the turn

Put your opponent on a range, decide how he plays that range, and the best EV river bet size falls in your lap.

Originally Posted by Outlaw

50/27? Why not 3-bet for value pf.. then you are all in by the turn

There's probably more value in calling with 88 since it's only barely ahead of even rather wide ranges. For example, you have less than 60% equity against 40% of hands.

Shoving is likely the most +EV river play.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Shoving is likely the most +EV river play.

How many times does villain have to call this to make it more +EV than say a 1/3 psb where villain calls a large portion of the time? (This is prolly an easy calc. but I'm feelin a little math retarded at this time of the day).

well I'll try some numbers i guess
gonna use 3.00 for your 1/3psb donkfish
pot:7.05
bet size (A):12.41
bet size (B):3.00
%they call A: X
%they call B: Y
%called X A = %called X B (We don't include the size of the pot anywhere here because we have the nuts and there is no way that we can lose this hand. We win the money in the pot no matter what)
12.41X=3Y
now we can isolate for X and Y and get the ratio of how more frequently one has to work over the other, but we can't actually ever know the number exactly because we can't be certain of our opponents exact tedencies in these situations.
To answer your question though, a $3 bet has to be called 4.1367 times as often as a $12.41 shove.

meh - i just fold quads cos it's way too complicated othewise

as played bet turn bigger means that you don't have to overbet river to get it in...

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Max value is 1 penny less than the amount you think your opponent will fold for.

Only if you put him on one specific hand.

Originally Posted by Outlaw

50/27? Why not 3-bet for value pf.. then you are all in by the turn

Much easier to play a reraised pot vs this player type