10NL : Can i fold river ?

Villian Stats : (VP$IP/PFR/AF 3-bet%)

21/9/1 5% over 86 hands.

My Thoughts And Questions

Guess i could 3bet the JJ here preflop. Is the calling very bad or ok ? Villian seems to be raising a tight range from the small sample.

Flop i go for the c/r thinking that flop hit his range well, but alas he checks back.

Turn i gotta bet now and when flats his hand looks like a draw. KQ, flushes ? He might play KJ like this. I dont think this villian is opening KT and QT.

River i gotta bet with such a stroing hand, and would have folded to a shove as i dont see him with hands here like AT, AJ, JT, 22, 66, TT. Then he makes it 2.3x my bet...... giving me 3.4 to 1 to call. Do i just call and top up ? Do i expect to win here 22%+ of the time ?

Party $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players

BTN: $10.29
Hero (SB): $10.42
BB: $4.52
UTG: $1.95
CO: $10.64

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J J
1 fold, CO raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.90) A 2 J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($0.90) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.67, CO calls $0.67

River: ($2.24) T (2 players)
Hero bets $1.68, CO raises to $3.96, Hero calls $2.28

That's a really interesting hand. I don't know much but KQ is 5x as likely as AJ and 4 times as likely as any single Jx. If you're going to consider AJ I think you have to consider AA as well since it actually fits here pretty well too from such a passive opponent with 1 AF.

I agree that would be a hell of a sick lay down since TT fits SOME times and you don't need a lot of equity but he's flatting the river w AK AQ imo.

Board: Ad 2c Jh 6h Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.143% 32.14% 00.00% 9 0.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 67.857% 67.86% 00.00% 19 0.00 { AA, TT, AJs-ATs, KQs, JTs, AJo, KQo }


So yeah go ahead and make the call if you figured you only need 22% but I'm not expecting you to win there a lot.

edit: and of course if he has AK AQ ever than its even more profitable, and he might since you checked the flop- I just don't see opponents raising rivers w TPTK when they have 1AF at my stakes

edit 2: I calculated that you need 27%... not that it makes a huge difference here

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.143% 32.14% 00.00% 9 0.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 67.857% 67.86% 00.00% 19 0.00 { AA, TT, 66, AJs, KQs, AJo, KQo }

so i would defffff be cawling here

i'd bet the flop and start building a pot so we can get stacks in by the river

Originally Posted by AFchung

i'd bet the flop and start building a pot so we can get stacks in by the river

+2....big hand big pot....

Call me crazy, but i definitely wouldve bet the flop strong here's why.
First and foremost i've learned it never pays to slowplay a set on any street in the micros. Also, if he's playing a tight range by your estimation, he either loves or loathes the ace on the flop. If he's a taggfish sitting there with AT+, hes calling a pot sized bet on the flop no doubt. If he has a middle pair like TT+, hes probably going to call at least one street anyway. If he has a couple broadways, by giving him the free card you're allowing him to hit his gutterball for free. If he has a small pair, hes a big dog to improve, and you're not likely to make much money on the hand anyway.

So for those reasons BET THE FLOP.

"Flop i go for the c/r thinking that flop hit his range well, but alas he checks back. "

Read OP's post

Originally Posted by saranacJACK

Call me crazy, but i definitely wouldve bet the flop strong here's why.
First and foremost i've learned it never pays to slowplay a set on any street in the micros. Also, if he's playing a tight range by your estimation, he either loves or loathes the ace on the flop. If he's a taggfish sitting there with AT+, hes calling a pot sized bet on the flop no doubt. If he has a middle pair like TT+, hes probably going to call at least one street anyway. If he has a couple broadways, by giving him the free card you're allowing him to hit his gutterball for free. If he has a small pair, hes a big dog to improve, and you're not likely to make much money on the hand anyway.

So for those reasons BET THE FLOP.

I like this.

Originally Posted by saranacJACK

Call me crazy, but i definitely wouldve bet the flop strong here's why.
First and foremost i've learned it never pays to slowplay a set on any street in the micros. Also, if he's playing a tight range by your estimation, he either loves or loathes the ace on the flop. If he's a taggfish sitting there with AT+, hes calling a pot sized bet on the flop no doubt. If he has a middle pair like TT+, hes probably going to call at least one street anyway. If he has a couple broadways, by giving him the free card you're allowing him to hit his gutterball for free. If he has a small pair, hes a big dog to improve, and you're not likely to make much money on the hand anyway.

So for those reasons BET THE FLOP.

I like this.

wtf@betting the flop, yea, let's make sure that we don't gain any value from the bluffs in his range

lol @ bet flop.

please do no fold river.

the problem with leading flop is that we only do it with a set on this board. it's not even a good play with AJ.

i might even c/c flop because it's the best way to get value from Ax. it's far and away the best way to get value from all of his garbage that completely missed. i mean if you're in the boat that says that we have bet to protect against him possibly getting a free card, then i mean, c'mon...really?...is there such thing as a safe board?

also, if villain checks behind, then i'm leading turn more than half the time with my whole range, so i'd like to have a wide range when i make that bet, so villain doesn't insta-raise.

it's not like we were set-mining PF and have to make up some arbitrary $ amount postflop, we should be playing the hand in a way that maximizes its value vs. our opponents range, which is going to be somewhat wide/weak here.

c/c flop for sure. As spenda said villain's range isn't all that strong here. He's opening in the CO. We have to play our hand in a way that will maximize against villain's entire range, not just build the pot the fastest against his strong hands.

Say we check, villain is betting most Ax, 22, and most air. If we bet, we are rarely ever getting raise. Sure he is calling 22, Ax, and maybe QQ/KK, but he's folding all of his air (usually). So we check, if he bets, we get value from his good hands + his air, whereas leading gets value only from his good/marginal hands (not air). With respect to his marginal hands, we aren't getting but 1 (maybe 2) streets of value. If we check flop, and he checks back, he's almost certainly calling the turn. Therefore, we still get value from that portion of his range just as we would if we lead the flop. Actually he will call with a higher frequency just because now he only have 1 future bet to worry about instead of 2.