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10NL AQs BTN v/ oddball
Villains: UTG+1 is standard 10NL full stack donk. Only opens JJ+ (and sometimes not JJ) with PSB, limp/calls from all positions about 30%. I suspect the min-bet/call is with the upper 50% of that range, so something like 16%:
{ JJ-66,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo }
MP1 has a unique move: sometimes opening to $0.22 - $0.28 from any position pre-flop. I'm marking down hands against this villain because on anonymous tables, that's an identifying characteristic I can use to my advantage. To that end, I've seen him show down with 65s once. He is capable of min 3-bet from EP w/ JJ, so probably w/ AK as well. His range to call/call is with anything that draws relatively well.
{ TT-22,AQs-A2s,K9s+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,98o }
Bovada - $0.10 NLHE - 9 players
UTG: $8.95
UTG+1: $7.85
MP1: $14.86
MP2: $8.06
HJ: $12.73
CO: $3.00
Hero BTN: $9.85
SB: $7.93
BB: $8.95
SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A Q
fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.20, MP1 calls $0.20, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.90, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.70, MP1 calls $0.70
Flop: ($2.85, 3 players) 5 9 5
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $0.26, Hero folds
I'm getting over 10:1 on a call, which is clearly a +EV move if my outs are clean... but I feel like if I call this bet, I'm facing a monster bet on any turn card and then even if I catch an Ace I'm going to be wanting a cheap showdown in a bloated pot. Also, I don't close the action.
$0.26 donk-bet in a 3-handed pot, paired board with no big draws... It feels like
{ 5x, 9x, PP, 2 broadways }
Against which I have ~55% equity, if UTG+1 folds... and ~36% if UTG+1 calls with a similar range.
I'm a favorite, but not by much. Is this just a scared fold or a good time to pick a better spot?
I feel like if I call this bet, I'm facing a monster bet on any turn card
Should this be an argument for calling, since the implied odds are so high?
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