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10NL AQs BTN v/ oddball

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  1. #1
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Default 10NL AQs BTN v/ oddball

    Villains: UTG+1 is standard 10NL full stack donk. Only opens JJ+ (and sometimes not JJ) with PSB, limp/calls from all positions about 30%. I suspect the min-bet/call is with the upper 50% of that range, so something like 16%:
    { JJ-66,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo }

    MP1 has a unique move: sometimes opening to $0.22 - $0.28 from any position pre-flop. I'm marking down hands against this villain because on anonymous tables, that's an identifying characteristic I can use to my advantage. To that end, I've seen him show down with 65s once. He is capable of min 3-bet from EP w/ JJ, so probably w/ AK as well. His range to call/call is with anything that draws relatively well.
    { TT-22,AQs-A2s,K9s+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,98o }


    Bovada - $0.10 NLHE - 9 players

    UTG: $8.95
    UTG+1: $7.85
    MP1: $14.86
    MP2: $8.06
    HJ: $12.73
    CO: $3.00
    Hero BTN: $9.85
    SB: $7.93
    BB: $8.95

    SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A Q

    fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.20, MP1 calls $0.20, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.90, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.70, MP1 calls $0.70

    Flop: ($2.85, 3 players) 5 9 5
    UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $0.26, Hero folds

    I'm getting over 10:1 on a call, which is clearly a +EV move if my outs are clean... but I feel like if I call this bet, I'm facing a monster bet on any turn card and then even if I catch an Ace I'm going to be wanting a cheap showdown in a bloated pot. Also, I don't close the action.

    $0.26 donk-bet in a 3-handed pot, paired board with no big draws... It feels like
    { 5x, 9x, PP, 2 broadways }
    Against which I have ~55% equity, if UTG+1 folds... and ~36% if UTG+1 calls with a similar range.

    I'm a favorite, but not by much. Is this just a scared fold or a good time to pick a better spot?

    I feel like if I call this bet, I'm facing a monster bet on any turn card
    Should this be an argument for calling, since the implied odds are so high?
  2. #2
    bikes's Avatar
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    raise button is on the right
  3. #3
    R/f flop feels good. If called, shutting down unimproved.
  4. #4
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    don't fold flop please
  5. #5
    Kinda feels like 9x , or 66,77,88, IDk,

    do you like playing that anonymous shit mojo?
    "We're all just a million little gods causing rainstorms, turning every good thing to rust...."AF
  6. #6
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    It's the only site that accepts deposits from my state. So I don't have any choice. Also, I've never played for monies on any other site, although I spent years goofing off on PS play money tables.

    Do I like it? Well, I guess it's better than PS play-money tables. I can't imagine a poker site with more fish & recreational players in the pool than Bovada (who offers online sports betting just a click away from a poker table).

    Basically, all of the oddities of Bovada are subtle slaps to the serious winning grinder. So someone at my level... better than average, but still under-rolled for live games... can do fairly well there. I'm probably approaching the skill level when not having a HUD is more working against me than for me... but I don't think it's too big a deal right now.

    Also, I either caught a 9-day heater OR the level of play at 10NL on Bovada is just laughable. If I can hold the winnings I've made over the past 2 weeks and just NOT LOSE over the next 10,000 hands, then I'll have solidly tripled my BR in less than a month @ 10NL. So it's kinda hard to not like it... today, at least.

    EDIT: Oh yeah
    Spoiler:
    The fyooker had 7 6

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