10NL - AQ oop on paired board.

[kiwiMark]

Villain is 45/9 over 50 hands with a 33% fold to cbet.

Critiques of bet-sizing would be greatly appreciated. I'm more and more noticing how often when I go to drag the slider across that it's just to some arbitrary point rather than with a purpose.

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG deniss123327 ($8.15)
UTG+1 tripsaholic ($9)
CO pvel899 ($9.85)
BTN kotmizer ($14.30)
SB Hero ($10)
BB CircuZcirkuz ($11.35)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is SB
deniss123327 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 1 fold, deniss123327 calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.10, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, deniss123327 calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.70, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.90, deniss123327 calls $1.90

River: ($6.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, deniss123327 goes all-in $4.95, $2.45 to Hero ($4.3)?



Preflop: I imagine villain's limp/calling range is something like {A2+, K6s+, K8o+, Q8s+, Q9o+, J8s+, J9o+, 22+, 54s+, 75s+}

Flop: Villain's continuing against a cbet here with any piece of anything, so with a range of aces, tens, deuces, all pocket pairs, flush draws and gutshots.

Turn: I think my sizing here could have comfortably been bigger. Villain probably folds low missed pockets and deuces here, making his range: aces, tens, sets, JJ, QQ, flush draws, straights and gutshots (now + pair of kings).

River: Here I was pretty confused as to if I should just shove all in or not- I don't like checking as I think villain checks behind a bunch of stuff I could get value from, but I don't think I can ever fold if I bet small and villain shoves over, so yeah...
In any event, villain shoves, and because of bet sizing I only need like 15 or 16 percent equity to call. So if he's shoving sets, straights, kings and AJ+ then I have that. *shrug*

[surviva316]

pot control imo

[Gobbatino]

On turn? I don't understand why we would. Dude doesn't fold to c-bets a lot so he could have any Ax crap, some mid/low pocket pairs. His range is super wide here and he's a fish, why no value bet?

[Carroters]

Fuck pot control vs this drooler. Bet the turn such that you can shove the river to make him call with all the Ax crap and KQ etc in his range. This river isn't the best in the world, but I'd still just shove for value.

As played, bleh you're not often good I wouldn't think, but you've sized the bets so weirdly that you really can't bet/fold this river unless you know he'd never "ahh fuck it" jam AJ or some random fish stuff once in a while.

Btw even with your bet size on the turn I'm still shoving the river, because he likely can't fold any ace here. Once all those combos of Ax are in his calling range a shove looks fine. His calling range probably wont chnage much vs a small bet so if that's +EV (which it obv is) then shoving will be more so.

[Gobbatino]

Basically what Carroters said. I'd bet 2.20 on turn and shovel river.

[surviva316]

inside joke. fwiw i didn't even read the HH. i +1 2.20 turn, shovel river

[kiwiMark]

Okay cool, yeah as I said in op I've realised turn sizing was dumb, and that mistake compounded to an awkward river. But consensus seems to be awkward river or not, open shipping lets him call when he's behind enough, whereas having him ship over puts me up against an annoyingly strong range.

Thanks, guys!

[texa8]

having him ship over puts me up against an annoyingly strong range.

i dont think c/c'ing is too bad on this river given villians range. id much rather do that than b/c..

shoving river has us being called by better more often than not i would have thought...

[Gobbatino]

i dont think c/c'ing is too bad on this river given villians range. id much rather do that than b/c..

shoving river has us being called by better more often than not i would have thought...

If you bet $2.20 on turn and villain calls that, he has $4.65 behind on the river with $7.10 in the pot. If you think villain is prone to bluffing a lot then check calling is ok. Villain would have to be really really bad to try to bluff with that much behind after previous street betting. And he wouldn't try to get value out of us with anything we beat; I mean, our range is pretty heavily weighted towards a strong ace anyways.

On the other hand if we bet worse aces could call a lot that wouldn't otherwise bet.

Sometimes we'll see a K and that sucks, too.

Without going too far in depth:
His calling range is a lot of weaker aces and any hand that beats us.
His betting range is any hand that beat us.