10NL AA MP 4-handed flop

This table has been moody. My EP raises have either won it pre-flop or gone 4+ handed for the past 30 minutes or so. So when I raise my Aces, I'm thinking, "call, call, call!" Then I got 3 calls. Crap!

Flop comes scary as can be for AA, and I've got 3 Villains, each on a super wide range.

Horrible time to turn AA into a bluff?

Bovada - $0.10 NLHE - 7 players

UTG: $28.45
Hero MP: $17.37
HJ: $6.80
CO: $14.45
BTN: $9.03
SB: $10.95
BB: $9.84

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A A
UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, HJ calls $0.50, fold, BTN calls $0.50, SB calls $0.45, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.20, 4 players) T J 8
SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, fold, BTN calls $2.50, fold

Turn: ($7.20, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, BTN bets $6.03 (all-in), Hero folds

BTN shows: J 7

I'm definitely turning AA into a bluff OTF. What do you think of the flop bet? Is it too big? Too small? Just bad timing?

What would you do here?

It's not a bluff you got called by worse

Worse? He has 53% equity!

Yeah mate badass

Nobody is folding better than AA it's not a fucking bluff

Why do you see flop bet as a bluff?

i think you've got ~40% against 3 loose ranges (or 2:1:1:1, if u can do it like that?), and you're still 3:2 fav after he calls.

i think i'd play it same-same

Originally Posted by kickass

Nobody is folding better than AA it's not a fucking bluff

^ this

fwiw you are VALUE-betting AA on that flop. Probably quite a bit too big given that you are bet-folding.
check-fold that turn unless you have reads that villain is uber-maniac

Originally Posted by daven

Probably quite a bit too big given that you are bet-folding.

Planning on bet/folding is not a reason for altering your bet sizing when your motivation for betting is value.

What do you do on a blank turn?

yeah i mean 54% of villains con't range otf has gutters , seems turn dependent,

if we b/f flop, shouldn't we do the same on a blank turn

Originally Posted by d0zer

Planning on bet/folding is not a reason for altering your bet sizing when your motivation for betting is value.

ja, i probably could have worded that better

any thoughts on the hand?

Originally Posted by WeldPhaser

yeah i mean 54% of villains con't range otf has gutters , seems turn dependent,

if we b/f flop, shouldn't we do the same on a blank turn

yes

Your thought process is seriously screwed up here monkey dude. You don't know his equity during the hand. When this board came you was your mindset to either bluff or c/f? Obv not, it was to pot it for value and to not give odds to draws yeah?

Hand was played fine imo. Villain got into your head.

edit* actually betting turn is better I think cuz we have like 50% vs his continuing range.

Originally Posted by supa

Hand was played fine imo. Villain got into your head.

I agree there. You actually had 4 players you were playing against when you bet, with one showing weakness by checking to you. If you look at Pokerstove, and input your AA vs 3 other villains with a fairly tight 11% pre-flop calling range, you get 37.391% equity. Multiply that by $2.50 continuation bet by four players for $10 * 3.7391 equity, and you get...

Win: $3.74
or
Lost: $1.57 ($2.50 * 62.609% chance of losing)

net: $2.17 equity in the bet.

It also served the purpose of chasing off two players and reducing your chances of being drawn out on. And with the only other player being in the pot, you now had a 68.843% chance of winning. In other words, his call was negative EV.

(More seasoned members. Please correct me if this is wrong.)

I think your flop bet was good. It chased out all but one of your drawers, and the one remaining one just happened to have a flush plus gutshot draw that he hit.


Edit: Oops, I forgot to add the equity from the pre-flop pot into the flop bet, so your EV is even better on that. And removed turn analysis that didn't narrow the hand range.