10nl 87s BU line/logic check

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

BB: $4.89 (48.9 bb)
MP: $9.10 (91 bb)
CO: $15.36 (153.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $13.28 (132.8 bb)
SB: $12.49 (124.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8 7
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, SB raises to $0.90, BB folds, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.90) T 4 9 (2 players)
SB bets $1.20, Hero raises to $4


Villain is 15/12, 26A%, 8.3 3bet (1/12 SB, 3/10 BB), 3/3 cbet

Unsure about pre, though my thinking at the time was that this should be a part of my call 3bet range, especially vs. a 3x.

So assuming Villain cbets his entire range he's cbetting something like 88+, AJo+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs.

Lets say he doesn't call with anything and jams over the raise with 99+, ATs, KTs, QJs. (I realize this may be a little overly simplistic as he might just call a hand like JJ or QQ, maybe KT or something)

This leaves me with like 56% fold equity which after I did the math came out to be roughly breakeven for the flop raise itself as a bluff in a vaccuum.

The problem I'm having trouble with is I now have enough equity to call vs. this jamming range and make it slightly +eV. So this leaves me wondering, should I be raising the flop in the first place if it leads to a lot of spots where I SHOULD be calling a jam? Like, basically if I raise the flop to 4 I should be willing to get stacks in, and this doesn't seem right to me given I have 8 high at the moment.

So there you have it. Hopefully someone can point out the holes in the logic and/or math here.

Just move to Macau. They love to gamboooooolll!

Seems like pure spew to me. I don't disagree with your logic to call the 3-bet IP, but I don't do it every time... depends on the Villain. It looks like this is the first time this villain 3-bet from the SB, so I'd give him a little respect and fold this one PRE.

OTF, I think you're right about your semi-bluff leading to a stack off with 8 outs and no chance you're ahead at the moment. However, if there is enough fold equity for this to work against this villain, then it's perfectly fine and the fact that you'll have decent equity when you do stack off light, is just icing on the cake you'll be stealing from him.

I think pre is close. 15/12 3betting isn't nice, but you do have position with a hand that can flop pretty well.

I don't like the flop raise though. As you said, if he shoves, you're calling with 8 outs and 8 high. You have a decent draw, on a board with no flush draws, I probably just call and see the next card. If he shoves, or even just calls your raise, you have to think you're way behind.

How many hands did you have on villain?

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I think pre is close. 15/12 3betting isn't nice, but you do have position with a hand that can flop pretty well.

I don't like the flop raise though. As you said, if he shoves, you're calling with 8 outs and 8 high. You have a decent draw, on a board with no flush draws, I probably just call and see the next card. If he shoves, or even just calls your raise, you have to think you're way behind.

How many hands did you have on villain?

like 120

call flop. if you're checked to twice after that (and you don't improve) you can bluff him off missed overs.

pre is standard. flop i'd rather just call to avoid having to fold a heap of equity if he jams. i imagine he'd just jam anything top pair + and maybe even some draws given how much of our stacks are in the pot after we raise. we don't want that. plus we are IP, and this board hits our range reasonably well. so we can steal it on later streets if we feel he's somewhat airy

edit: i'd probably open 2.5x pre as default in this spot

Your head is basically in the right place. One problem with raising the flop is that you have exceptional implied odds in this spot, so calling is +EV as hell. It's not so much that raising is necessarily -EV, but calling is just so much more +EV. As an aside, you're never raising this flop for value since you would likely just call with anything that beats a single pair.