10nl 6max 4h4d - Turning my hand into a bluff on a monotone board.

[Dex]

Edit: Title should read monotone flop. Apologies to anyone who comes in expecting different.

There's been a lot of interesting discussion in the thread "Bluff on monotone flop" in the short-handed forum. I had a similar hand from the start of the month and thought I'd post it for some discussion.

Villain is 27/23 over 60 hands, agg 2.0, cbet 7/9 opportunities.

Some notable hands:

Open ep 4x QQ, flatted by 48/3 fish ip, cbet .70 into .95 flop, $1.70 into $2.35 turn, c/c $5 shove by fish into $5.75 on river - Js8c5h 3c Ad. Pretty standard attempt at letting the fish hang themselves when all draws have missed/the pot is a tempting size. Or he nitrolled and couldn't fold, I guess that's possible if we want to balance out with a lack of credit too.

Vs same fish open 4x UTG, fish flats ip again, cbet .70 into .95, fish calls, c/f to .70 on turn 9d8d8s 9s.

Open 4x UTG, flatted by 49/22 fish ip, cbet .70 into .95 call and $1.50 minraise, c/f turn $1 into $3.95 on Jc9c5d 2d.

Read: So I'm assuming villain doesn't initially like to give up but he's not stupid and doesn't mess around on bad boards.

Preflop: I flat 44 in the sb vs villain's 4x UTG open, I think this can be a fold sometimes given we're OOP vs someone who seems fairly competent for these stakes, if on the looser side of that. But I'm confident enough in myself that I'm not just playing for set value every single time I call.

Flop: I intended to just c/f this flop but when villain's cbet is so much smaller than the usual on such a wet board, I think he has a hand he's not happy with on this board texture and c/r him. I agree that if I had a big hand I would probably c/r bigger than 3x on such a wet board, but I was trying to size my bets in such a way because:

1) If villain reraises I saved myself a few bb.
2) If villain flats and a diamond falls on the turn I can c/f safe in the knowledge I'm not being bluffed, and having saved a few bb.
3) Assuming villain does not reraise my flop raise or raise my turn bet, I need to maximise the amount I get to the river with for fold equity while still having repped a credible hand getting there.

Villain thinks for a few seconds and flats my raise. This heavily discounts sets and two pair that I expect to reraise often for protection and value. So I think villain's flop flatting range after cbetting weak are overpairs with and without diamonds, broadways with a single diamond and some made flushes.

Turn: After villain flats my flop raise I am always bet/folding this turn. Although QdJx and QxJd - which I don't expect to be a huge part of villain's UTG range - have improved to the point they will be calling a river shove but not raising the turn, hands like KdQx, KxQd and JdTx have just found another reason to continue and I expect this. Any overpairs with diamonds will continue, and any overpairs without diamonds will strongly consider calling if the flop logic was to continue if another diamond doesn't come. Given what I have left behind and the size of my bet, which I think could have been smaller given the planned river shove, I expect flopped flushes to start raising now to get the last of my money in.

Villain timebanks for a second or so and then calls.

River: Villain essentially never has a full house and none of his hands have improved past what they were on the turn. The river pairing the board is pretty good for me too. I wait a couple of seconds and shove which is 65.5% of the pot. The breakeven point on this is villain folding over 39.5% of the time.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($12.35)
Hero (SB) ($10)
BB ($16.50)
Villain (UTG) ($10.40)
MP ($14.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4, 4
Villain bets $0.40, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.90) 10, 8, 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, Villain calls $1

Turn: ($3.90) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.40, Villain calls $2.40

River: ($8.70) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $5.70 (All-In)

Thoughts?

[DrakaZ]

I do not really like the way you played this hand. He can have a flush/straight higher pair. I think it was nicely played until the river. You should wait for others opinion.

[Donachello]

Hmm. I definitely see your thought process here, though I do believe there is a pretty big point in having a plan and sticking to it with marginal hands.

Generally from extensive experience at the micro 6m game I am really learning to pretty much never 3-barrel with air. Granted, there are those spots where you have the correct read to do so but you stated that this guy is 1) a pretty solid reg-ish player and 2) doesn't mess around on scary boards. With that said I can definitely see how you might want to bluff here and I think you managed your bet sizing pretty well to do so.

If he folded then nice hand.

If not then here's a few things to look at. Not being hyper aggressive, there's definitely a chance that he flops a flush here and chooses to bet small so as to not scare you out of the pot. Once you raise, if he has a flush it's pretty much like christmas and he's definitely flatting the turn expecting you to fire the river as well when a 4th diamond doesn't come. I also feel like he can safely take this line with AdAx, KdKx, QdQx.

That said, I'm interested to see what he shows up here with. I'm probably folding this 80% of the time preflop and definitely c/fing this board 99.9% of the time he bets.

I do like your detailed analysis though.

[Dex]

I also feel like he can safely take this line with AdAx, KdKx, QdQx.

Yeah, I mean by the time the river comes the board is pretty scary and you can expect someone to at least have to consider folding an overpair but there's never any guarantee.

Any other thoughts on the hand people?

[Horace]

I like the thought process though, good to see you have a logical structure of thinking.

[surviva316]

fold pre.

i really don't understand flop. i don't get why his range is weak enough for us to c/r at it with a hand with terrible equity on a board that's gonna see a lot of 3b's.

[Dex]

fold pre.

i really don't understand flop. i don't get why his range is weak enough for us to c/r at it with a hand with terrible equity on a board that's gonna see a lot of 3b's.

I guess it's all assumption at the end of the day, isn't it? Of the 7 previous cbets this villain had made this was the first time he had deviated from his standard sizing, and his timing on the flop seemed suspicious although I don't think I mentioned that. It's easier to assume he's playing weak with a draw or a hand he's unsure of than to give him credit for slowplaying flop and turn with a nut hand, especially when as noted the fish at the table are getting the better of him. Like, can we give him credit for betting small to induce?

If villain is only ever chasing a 4th diamond that he will bet checked to on the turn or river, then if that diamond hits and he checks back it's possible 4d is the best hand and he will let me show it down. Is he going to turn JsJc into a bluff if the river is a 4th diamond? Is he really chasing JdJs just to show down for free?

But yeah, if we assume all overpairs, with or without a diamond, bet the flop bigger, than that leaves tricky flopped flushes, weak made hands and diamond draws. So wouldn't that range be weighted to weak made hands and diamond draws?

Anyway, results: Villain used most of their timebank and folded.

The reason I've posted a couple of hands like this is because I'm trying to get a feel for the ranges I'm putting people on and the weakest hands people can call with in the spots I've posted. I appreciate the input I've had from people in this thread and the others.