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 Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
LOL
Now it could be that I am just running really well over such a small sample size, but I doubt it.
If that is all the hands you have, there is no way you can deduct your true winrate from it. In fact I am pretty sure that you are indeed running good playing a very swingy aggressive style of play. I say this because I believe winrates of 20ptBB/100 over the long term are extremely rare to non-existant at anything but the lowest stakes.
Lets say your unknown true winrate is 10BB/100(which is very good) and you play your first 5000 hands. If we use my SD of 30BB/100(what is yours?), then we can make the following statement.
"We can be 99% sure that your results will be within -2.7BB/100 to 22.7BB/100 after having played 5000 hands"
or
"We can be 95% sure that your results will be within 1.6BB/100 to 18.6BB/100 after having played 5000 hands"
As you can see the range is quite wide.
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