10 nl fold flop? check river?

28/17/2 AF /42.86 AFq/7 3b...0 fold to 3b..30 ats...85% fold to cbet, i dont have my full tilt up so idk what reads i have on this guy (i guess i should start taking the notes in pt3 instead of FT), he has raised a cbet once before (out of 7 times), but with only 100 hands between us, idk how reliable this stat is.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($10)
MP1 ($10.60)
MP2 ($12.04)
CO ($10)
Button ($2.40)
SB ($10)
Hero (BB) ($10.38)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
2 folds, MP2 bets $0.20, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.65, MP2 calls $0.45

i see him raising a wide range here, and calling, obviously, still pretty wide

22+,78s+,T8s+,Axs, A9+,KT+, QT+,JT,

Flop: ($1.35) 7, J, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, MP2 raises to $1.60, Hero calls $0.80

At the time i thought this minraise was a bluff, looking at it i feel like it is probably for value.

I narrow his range to Jx (AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9), maybe a gutshot like 89 or T9, 77 and 33. I guess peeling on such a dry board is pretty bad although i am calling 80c to win 4.55, so i only need 17% equity to continue.

Turn: ($4.55) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $3, Hero calls $3

I hit my dream turn...i am beating the majority of his range and trail like 15 combos. He raised my flop bet so i check to him to let him A. continue being the aggressor, B. let him bluff at the scare card because i have shown weakness by checking it.

When he raises i keep his range as pretty much the same as his flop range, maybe some j9, jt's check behind (they probably just call on the flop too tbth).

River: ($10.55) K (2 players)
Hero bets $5.13 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $10.55 | Rake: $0.70

river doesnt really change anything. I dont want to check and give him the chance to check behind, but given the course of the hand i feel like if i check he will def put the money in. Whereas i thought he would definitely call also if i put it in, thats why i went that route. What do you guys think?

idk if i got him to fold a jack, or if he was just full of shit the whole time, or what

turn seems like a pretty clear bet to me, unless you checked to induce another barrel. he's certainly calling a much larger value range than he's betting.

once he folds the river, i tend to think he's the type to min raise 88 on the flop as a bluff or to find out where they're at or because betting's fun or idk what. this type of person is wicked common in live games

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

although i am calling 80c to win 4.55, so i only need 17% equity to continue.

It doesn't work like that because you aren't all-in.

so then how do i work out whether to peel or not in situations like that

coming to a decision on a purely mathematical basis is damned near impossible here because there are so many variables (how villain is going to play the rest of the hand, how much of the rest of the 8 dollars of stack goes in and on which streets and on which cards and against which ranges, etc.), whereas when the call closes out the action for the hand (either because there is no money left behind or because it is a call that closes the betting action on the river), there are no variables beyond how frequently you are going to win at showdown.

For starters, your 3bet is pretty small OOP. I'd prefer to see it around .80. I feel like the flop is a pretty clear fold or if you think he's bluffing then I'd probably 3bet.

Regardless, the turn is most likely a bet unless he is barreling a high % of the time although it does turn your hand very face up.