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 Originally Posted by DoubleJ
he'll likely call again
and will do the same on the River
So there's a very good chance that we'll get paid off big time OTR whenever we hit (~45% of the time) vs. losing Flop and Turn bets 55% of the time.
any good?
still not sure how the Flop bet complies with the conventional interpretation of a a Value Bet, tho...
With semi-bluffs early in the hand (ie: the flop), you need very, very little fold equity to be making a ton of money, and this is especially true if your implied odds are huge (eg: if they are not often folding when you hit).
On the turn, you need a little more fold equity, and whatever the turn card is can help you to achieve that at times. It's not such a big deal to just check if you know (for whatever reason) that you have no sizable fold equity whatsoever. However, do not overestimate how much fold equity you need in these spots to have a positive expectation if you aren't being raised often. Let me work out a quick example:
Say you have eight outs on the river, and you're putting in a $12 bet into a pot of $18. Say you get raised 5%, Villain folds 25% and Villain calls the other 70%. If there is no future betting, then your EV is:
EV = (0.05)(-12) + (0.25)(18) + (0.7)(8/46)(12+18) + (0.7)(38/46)(-12)
EV = -0.06 + 4.5 + 3.65 + -6.94
EV = 1.15
On top of that, you're getting value on the river from the times you get in a big ass bet into that fat $42 river pot.
Suppose that of the times you hit, you get in a $30 bet just 40 percent of the time that's called. Your extra EV from that is (0.7)(8/46)($30)(0.40) = $1.46.
If you're never beat on the river (and Villain never puts in more than $30 on the river), then your EV would be in the range of $2.61 which gives your turn c-bet in that situation an ROI of about 20%.
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