[spoonitnow strategy] Thinking About Your Ranges When Continuation Betting

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

Kinda

So, in this spot, with an opponent who is going to be putting in quite a bit of money when he’s facing bets, we should be betting with a strong range and our strong range would consist of medium-to-strong draws, TP/TK, O.Pairs, 2Pairs and Sets? Yes?

Which kinda begs the question "what are we trying to acheive by betting the flop w/ 8s7s?". It can't be for value as there's nothing much weaker in his range, and it can't be a semi-bluff as we've established that the guy won't be folding anytime soon.

Not trying to be a smart-arse nor nuffink; just trying to get my brain around this.

Thankin' yew

What if you fire on the turn?

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

What if you fire on the turn?

he'll likely call again

and will do the same on the River

So there's a very good chance that we'll get paid off big time OTR whenever we hit (~45% of the time) vs. losing Flop and Turn bets 55% of the time.

any good?

still not sure how the Flop bet complies with the conventional interpretation of a a Value Bet, tho...

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

he'll likely call again

and will do the same on the River

So there's a very good chance that we'll get paid off big time OTR whenever we hit (~45% of the time) vs. losing Flop and Turn bets 55% of the time.

any good?

still not sure how the Flop bet complies with the conventional interpretation of a a Value Bet, tho...

With semi-bluffs early in the hand (ie: the flop), you need very, very little fold equity to be making a ton of money, and this is especially true if your implied odds are huge (eg: if they are not often folding when you hit).

On the turn, you need a little more fold equity, and whatever the turn card is can help you to achieve that at times. It's not such a big deal to just check if you know (for whatever reason) that you have no sizable fold equity whatsoever. However, do not overestimate how much fold equity you need in these spots to have a positive expectation if you aren't being raised often. Let me work out a quick example:

Say you have eight outs on the river, and you're putting in a $12 bet into a pot of $18. Say you get raised 5%, Villain folds 25% and Villain calls the other 70%. If there is no future betting, then your EV is:

EV = (0.05)(-12) + (0.25)(18) + (0.7)(8/46)(12+18) + (0.7)(38/46)(-12)
EV = -0.06 + 4.5 + 3.65 + -6.94
EV = 1.15

On top of that, you're getting value on the river from the times you get in a big ass bet into that fat $42 river pot.

Suppose that of the times you hit, you get in a $30 bet just 40 percent of the time that's called. Your extra EV from that is (0.7)(8/46)($30)(0.40) = $1.46.

If you're never beat on the river (and Villain never puts in more than $30 on the river), then your EV would be in the range of $2.61 which gives your turn c-bet in that situation an ROI of about 20%.

Here's another one...

to me, checking the Flop with a strong range sounds a lot like Slow Playing, which i'm always being told not to do

what am i missing?

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

Here's another one...

to me, checking the Flop with a strong range sounds a lot like Slow Playing, which i'm always being told not to do

what am i missing?

Slow playing in general is extremely good under a particular set of circumstances. Reference http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slow_play_%28poker%29 for Sklansky's treatment from Theory of Poker.

The key criterion that applies to what we're talking about here is, "The player must believe that he will drive out opponents by showing aggression, but can win a big pot if the opponents stay in the pot."

The idea that I'm presenting that you're asking about is that if your opponent is extremely unlikely to put money in with one line, that's an indicator that it could be better to put good hands (ie a strong range) in another line. So if your opponent is folding something crazy like 75-80 percent to a continuation bet in a particular spot, then it can easily be [though it won't always be] better to check with a strong range.

The premise of all of this is pretty simple: Play in a way that gets the money in when you have a good hand.

I'm only advocating a ton of slow playing as a hyper-exploitative measure in very specific situations like the ones ImSavy described. If your opponent is folding a ton when you bet and betting a ton when you check, then you get a fuckton of value by checking a strong range and betting with a weak range.

super-cool little doggies

thx

any comment on this bit: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...66#post2158366 ?