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 Originally Posted by Openside
Hows it going iLike? You know whats funny? I make this exact play every night, yet this morning, as i sip my coffee, im thinking wow that was played badly. No offence bud, i am worse because i know what i should do but dont do it.
He is in the CO so whether he is a TAG or a LAG his range is going to be relatively wider than EP. You could safely put him on broadway, 22+, suited connectors preflop. What information do you have on him? What does he think of you? What % of CBets does he call IP and how loose is he preflop. With none of that information you have played yourself into a tough situation by not betting the turn and river, inviting a bluff that you really cant call. With no info on him I would b/f the turn and river. As it stands i think he floated your continuation bet and then bluffs into the weakness you showed on the turn and river, but thats irrelevant. With no info you have to fold imo.
If his % C CBet IP is <35% it would increase the probability you are up against a J or worse ( set, over pair). If its >50% then he doesnt respect the CBet and you should b/f turn and river.
he says he only has 33 hands on him, hardly enough to rely on his cbet fold % that much.
That being said, at 2nl id def be betting the flop, 8x, 5x call, T9s, QT, Q9s, maybe even T7s. (obv im not saying thats the co's range but between him, the utg limp/caller, an d the bb (both of whom you failed to give any stats on) id sayits in their range)
Turn is a little thin, some of his hands got there, the 8x and 5x may fold to a second barrel, and the Q draws might fold their gutshot as well (but they may bet them), so unless you think youre getting floated a ton here or that he will bet all the hands i just mentioned if checked to, id check/fold. If you think he is floating you a lot then obviously check/call could be profitable. And lastly if you think hes calling with worse pairs, gutshots to a second barrell then bet/fold is probably best.
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