|
Hey Chemist. Yeah, I can't really go into too much detail in each video, due to the short length of each one. But I do think I perhaps should have included at least one example hand against a competent reg where we go postflop. The problem is then that we have so many options on different flops, and then more options on the turn, that the whole video could end up being just about one specific hand. I guess it's not a problem, in itself, to have a whole video about one hand, and maybe in the future I could do something like that.
Regarding the 97s call, there are a couple of things that make it, in my mind, a profitable call. The first is that the raiser only made the raise 3x, even after there were some limpers ahead of him. Not only does he make the limpers get odds to call pretty much with anything they have, but other players behind him (like us) can call wide and are getting pretty sick odds. If all the limpers call, then we're getting about 4.5-1 effective odds on our call. Of course, something bad might happen like a limp-reraise or someone 3betting behind us, but on the other hand, someone in the blinds may come along as well, making our effective odds even better.
If we call and all the 3 limpers call when it comes back to them, the pot will be about $3.75 on the flop, or 15 big blinds. The SPR will be a relatively low 7ish, so it's not a great spot for bluffing or semi-bluffing, especially multi-way. I think we'll have to kinda just play the strength of our hand. But it should be pretty easy to get paid off pretty well when we do flop a monster. If someone bets out 2/3 pot, that's already 10bb of value and if someone else calls, we've already gotten 20 bb from our big hand, in addition to the 12 bb that we get from the pot that our opponents had put in preflop. If we just get another 2/3 pot of value on the turn or river half of the time, I think it makes our preflop call profitable.
Then we do have some equity from our draws that we will flop. We can't really bluff-raise or float, I think, against such a large field. But, there are so many players in the pot that by the time it comes to us, we may be getting enough odds to profitably chase our draw, especially if it is an OESD. Consider that many of these guys probably don't know much about betsizing, so we may draw for a very cheap price. Or, even if someone cbets 2/3 pot on the flop, he may get scared and make a little 5bb bet on the turn, which we can call very profitably when we have a good draw.
If we flop just a pair, we'll have a tricky spot, for sure. If someone leads 3/4 pot and someone else calls and it's on us, and let's say we have flopped a 9 for top pair and no draws, I really have no problems just folding here, unless the betsize is really small. It's hard to get value multiway, even in position, with a low top pair and a bad kicker. It's also probably wrong to bluff-catch multiple streets against fish. So, even though we'd probably call in position against two players in that spot if we could somehow be all-in, the fact that we have a stack behind and reverse implied odds makes it a close fold, imo.
Different things could happen though where we DO want to play top or middle pair. We might have top pair + gutshot + BDFD and the betsizing into us is pretty small. In that case, our hand probably has enough possibilities that we can at least call and see the turn. Or maybe all the limpers fold preflop and the original raiser checks to us. Then we have different options and we can play "what if?" all day. But over the sum of all possibilities, I think perhaps 85%+ of the time, we're gonna be playing pretty face up on the flop against these guys. But it doesn't matter. They don't know what they are supposed to do, and they have already made such big mistakes preflop that I think it's OK to play face up, and we should still show a good profit here.
|