[5NL FR] Flopped set... raise flop or turn?

Villain is 15/7, 5.5 aggr, 100%cbet over 108 hands

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from Play Online Poker, Site Reviews & Poker Forum | FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($5.78)
MP1 ($4.54)
MP2 ($5.30)
CO ($2.37)
Hero (Button) ($5.24)
SB ($2.96)
BB ($2.27)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, 2
UTG bets $0.20, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.20, SB calls $0.18, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.65) 2, 7, Q (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $0.45, Hero calls $0.45, 1 fold

Turn: ($1.55) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $1.08, Hero raises to $2.16

Do you prefer raising the flop? Thoughts on min raise OTT (if he calls the minraise, pot would be $5.87 with $2.43 left behind in effective stack)?

I don't see any reason to raise the turn. the board is not scary at all, and you have him shoveling you monies right now. Let him fire another barrel if he has it in him, but jam river either way.

With no raise, it leaves a PSB for the river.

Reasons for raising:
1) lots of scare cards can come on the next street (mostly scary for him if he has a top pair type of hand), which could stall him. But that is true on the flop as well which is why I was asking whether raising the flop would be an idea.
2) getting the rest of the monies in easier OTR
3) possibly induce a shove
4) charge a possible flush draw (also true OTF)
5) true, the minraise may fold him if he is 2nd barrel-bluffing or if he is capable of folding top pair/overpair.

The main reasons I didn't raise the flop:
- deception
- not folding his bluffs and hoping that he second barrels them or hits OTT
- other than the flush draw the board is dry. That is still a risk though because SB is still in the pot, so that's two villains who could have a flush draw.

I think I just call on turn as well and see if Villain will fire again on the river. Same as MMM said, I'm probably shoving the river either way.

Deception shouldn't be one of your reasons for not raising the flop as it's highly unlikely he puts you on a set of 2's anyway.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Deception shouldn't be one of your reasons for not raising the flop as it's highly unlikely he puts you on a set of 2's anyway.

FWIW, the only things I would ever raise with on this flop against the UTG raise of a 15/7 are a set, and maybe a nut flush draw (but only if I have a seriously good read that he is capable of folding TPTK or an overpair to a couple of barrels, or at the very least that it will slow him down and give me two free cards).

Now it's true he doesn't know that (although my image is very tight as well), and maybe he could put me on AQ or a slow played AA-KK, or a flush draw after a raise. However my experience with tight players is that they are often very wary when they get raised. But it is also true that people still overplay their TPTK or overpairs a lot.

Originally Posted by daviddem

FWIW, the only things I would ever raise with on this flop against the UTG raise of a 15/7 are a set, and maybe a nut flush draw (but only if I have a seriously good read that he is capable of folding TPTK or an overpair to a couple of barrels, or at the very least that it will slow him down and give me two free cards).

Now it's true he doesn't know that (although my image is very tight as well), and maybe he could put me on AQ or a slow played AA-KK, or a flush draw after a raise. However my experience with tight players is that they are often very wary when they get raised. But it is also true that people still overplay their TPTK or overpairs a lot.

That's exactly why you don't want to raise the turn. Call again and shove the river.

Originally Posted by daviddem

FWIW, the only things I would ever raise with on this flop against the UTG raise of a 15/7 are a set, and maybe a nut flush draw (but only if I have a seriously good read that he is capable of folding TPTK or an overpair to a couple of barrels, or at the very least that it will slow him down and give me two free cards).

There are many different styles of post-flop play that are equally effective winning strategies.

That said, raising big draws OTF is for balance as much as anything. There is no need for balance against fishies, but when playing a pot vs. someone slightly sophisticated, you need some high equity bluffs in your flop raising range.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

That said, raising big draws OTF is for balance as much as anything. There is no need for balance against fishies, but when playing a pot vs. someone slightly sophisticated, you need some high equity bluffs in your flop raising range.

This is a different topic, but I would not say it is only for balance. The play is profitable by itself whenever you have sufficient fold equity (and with big draws, you often don't need much of it).

Im raising the flop you want to play a big pot with this hand and get your stack in. I think you will make the most value vs this guy by raising the flop. Call, call, jamming may make him fold the river too often with a hand he might of stacked off with on the flop.

Villain has a monster and will put all his chips in for us. Let him and don't give him a reason to fold.

Originally Posted by supa

Villain has a monster and will put all his chips in for us. Let him and don't give him a reason to fold.

OK, but what if a club or a second Q comes on the turn/river, or even a second broadway that could make us two pairs? Is he still going to stack off then?

Originally Posted by daviddem

OK, but what if a club or a second Q comes on the turn/river, or even a second broadway that could make us two pairs? Is he still going to stack off then?

I don't think he has many flush draws in his range when he bets the flop that big and I'm not risking him fold AQ or whatever cuz I'm scared of a 2 outer.

Originally Posted by supa

I don't think he has many flush draws in his range when he bets the flop that big and I'm not risking him fold AQ or whatever cuz I'm scared of a 2 outer.

I think what daviddem was referring to was not him actually drawing out to a better hand but him refusing to contribute anything more to the pot if the board becomes too dangerous. A valid fear. I often call on such flops and then regret it when the third of a suit falls on turn and opponent becomes visibly wary.

I raise flop all day long

^^ yes, that is right. Villain could well stall when a flush card or another Q pops up on the next street.

Min raising turn looks really strong, I don't think it's a good way to get value. Just raise the flop.

Gee whiz, I wonder what you have on the turn.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Gee whiz, I wonder what you have on the turn.

Yeah, I know, pretty transparent... do you raise the flop to try and rep an overplayed top pair or semibluff, or not?

Originally Posted by daviddem

do you raise the flop to try and rep an overplayed top pair or semibluff, or not?

You raise the flop to give your opponent the chance to make a mistake.

We've got some air, some flush draws, some sets and some top pair/second pair type hands on the flop. I probably call on the flop with some single pair hands and flush draws while raising with sets and some of the best air like backdoor diamond draws.

raise flop
as played don't raise turn
if you do choose to raise turn then don't min-raise