[5NL] TT, IP...Villain's range?

This was my 4th hand at the table.

I think it's worth noting that I had played all 3 previous hands and played them aggressively. Defending my BB with a 3bet and cbetting the flop. Raising my SB against the BB, raising on the button and cbetting the flop, and then this hand.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $5.88
BB: $9.46
UTG: $2.20
MP: $12.50
Hero (CO): $5.44
BTN: $3.05

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has T T

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.32, 2 players) 2 8 3
BB checks, Hero bets $0.25, BB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.82, 2 players) J
BB bets $0.95, Hero calls $0.95

River: ($3.72, 2 players) 5
BB bets $1.45, Hero ???

First thing I thought was, is villain giving me no credit for a hand and overplaying his own hand?

Flop - When he raises the flop, I figure he is just giving me no credit and trying to get a fold. I doubt he would raise with sets here as from my image, he could just keep letting me barrel off into him. What are thoughts on my flop call?

Turn - He bets 1/2 PSB here. Is he just following up his flop raise as he doesn't seem scared of the J which I think he would be with A8/A3/A2 type hands. Can we rule out an overpair? Would he 3bet these pre or slow play them because of my image? Could he be holding 55-77, 99 thinking he is good? How do we play an unknown in this spot?

River - This bet just seems so small, almost like he has given up.

What range are we putting villain on?

I think the correct way of analyzing this situation is to use bet/(bet+pot) and if you have more equity that the output of that formula it's a call.

I think it's because you're closing the action and are either calling or folding and not raising. So the decision ultimately boils down to your pot odds and your equity vs villains range. This is a similar situation to facing an all in, in a HU pot when your last to act with only two options; fold or call.

This may be incorrect though not 100% sure.

Why no 3-bet OTF? I don't like the call.

As played, call river. 50/50 on a turned Jx or weak 2 pr vs air and smaller pairs.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

I think the correct way of analyzing this situation is to use bet/(bet+pot) and if you have more equity that the output of that formula it's a call.

I think it's because you're closing the action and are either calling or folding and not raising. So the decision ultimately boils down to your pot odds and your equity vs villains range. This is a similar situation to facing an all in, in a HU pot when your last to act with only two options; fold or call.

This may be incorrect though not 100% sure.

OK I will try to do that. The call comment was more a throw-away comment, I am more interested in what people think villain's range could be.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Why no 3-bet OTF? I don't like the call.

As played, call river. 50/50 on a turned Jx or weak 2 pr vs air and smaller pairs.

I didn't 3bet as I thought with my current image he may be placing me on a bluff/weak hand or he himself might be overplaying a weaker hand that he might fold if I 3bet him so I decided to call.

3bet flop bad.

if you're calling flop & turn, then call river. I don't mind it tbh but I'm a station who would just say "spades missed", click call, and be sad when shown a set.

yah don't call turn if you are uncomfortable calling the blankest river in the deck vs a tiny sizing. i would call turn and river

oh yeah and don't 3b flop. most of his flush draws will be favourites against you. sets have you crushed. he won't call your 3b with enough worse to outweigh these hands

I think it's played OK. otf he's got sets in his range, maybe some slow played overpairs and flush draws with 1 or 2 overcards.

The rest of his line is consistent with this same range (with his semi bluffs, he barrels turn and bluffs river).

However his sizing does not seem to indicate he wants to get the stacks in, which I would think he would want to do with a set. This makes me want to call the river (although he may have picked up a J ott, which he is thin value betting).

Call and whatever he has, make a note.

Originally Posted by rpm

yah don't call turn if you are uncomfortable calling the blankest river in the deck vs a tiny sizing. i would call turn and river

I wasn't worried about calling the river. Again, it was just a throw away comment about calling. I am more interested in what range people would give villain.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

I think the correct way of analyzing this situation is to use bet/(bet+pot) and if you have more equity that the output of that formula it's a call.

OK so bet is $1.45 and pot is $3.72.

1.45/(1.45+3.72) = 0.28. So I need 28% equity to call right?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PokerStove gives me;

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

117 games 0.001 secs 117,000 games/sec

Board: 2c 3s 8s Jd 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.769% 30.77% 00.00% 36 0.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 69.231% 69.23% 00.00% 81 0.00 { 99-22, AJs, A8s, KJs, QJs, JTs, 83s-82s, 32s, AJo, A8o, KJo, QJo, JTo, 83o-82o, 32o }

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pokerstove gives me 30% equity even if I involve hands like 82s/82o, 32s/32o so I guess that makes it an easy call.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

OK so bet is $1.45 and pot is $3.72.

1.45/(1.45+3.72) = 0.28. So I need 28% equity to call right?

No.

You have to divide the amount you call by the total pot after you call:
1.45/6.62 = 21.9%

note: taking rake into account, you probably really need about 24-25%. You could make it an exercise to calculate exactly how much. Tip: you need to set up the full EV equation to do that, not just use the ratio shortcut. As usual: 0) the equity E you need to call is unknown 1) list all the outcomes 2) list the probablity of each outcome 3) list the profit for each outcome 4) setup the EV equation 5) set EV to zero and solve for your equity E. You don't need algebra for steps 0 to 4.

Also, as yAAwn would say, on the river, it is a good exercise to not use pokerstove to estimate your equity. Instead, list all the possible winning hands in the range and the number of combos for each hand, then do the same for all the loosing hands. The reason for doing that is training yourself to estimate your equity and counting combos on the fly while you play.

Example:

Winning hands:
KJ - 12 combos
etc

Also in your range, should you really include stuff like 83, 82 and 32? You think he would call a raise preflop with this trash?

Also I would include some busted NFD's and maybe some combos of slow played AA,KK.

Originally Posted by daviddem

No.

You have to divide the amount you call by the total pot after you call:
1.45/6.62 = 21.9% - OK, that's even better.

note: taking rake into account, you probably really need about 24-25%. You could make it an exercise to calculate exactly how much. Tip: you need to set up the full EV equation to do that, not just use the ratio shortcut. As usual: 0) the equity E you need to call is unknown 1) list all the outcomes 2) list the probablity of each outcome 3) list the profit for each outcome 4) setup the EV equation 5) set EV to zero and solve for your equity E. You don't need algebra for steps 0 to 4. - I have seen you write this a few times and I have absolutely no idea how to go about doing it.

Also, as yAAwn would say, on the river, it is a good exercise to not use pokerstove to estimate your equity. Instead, list all the possible winning hands in the range and the number of combos for each hand, then do the same for all the loosing hands. The reason for doing that is training yourself to estimate your equity and counting combos on the fly while you play. - I will probably start doing this when I have had more practice using Stove

Example:

Winning hands:
KJ - 12 combos
etc

Also in your range, should you really include stuff like 83, 82 and 32? You think he would call a raise preflop with this trash? - I included them just for the sake of it to show that even including stupid 2pr type hands, I still had 30% equity.

Also I would include some busted NFD's and maybe some combos of slow played AA,KK.

.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I have seen you write this a few times and I have absolutely no idea how to go about doing it.

Start by doing 1, 2 and 3. You need zero algebra to do that, just some logic.

You don't even need to do it with rake to start with. Without rake, it will only make you realize where the ratio shortcut is coming from.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

OK so bet is $1.45 and pot is $3.72.

1.45/(1.45+3.72) = 0.28. So I need 28% equity to call right?

bet = the bet size you'll be calling to close the action
pot = the size of the pot when it's your turn to act (this is the part you messed up)

Also, I think daviddem should avoid complicating the math here when there's not much of a gain from it since you're just starting to get comfortable with it.