[5NL] KQs in BB...Got the 2nd nuts

Villain was 26/17/5 through 762 hands. 57% cbet on flop & 57% cbet on turn.

Had a few notes on villain. He didn't get out of line a lot but was capable of spewy moments. I had seen him stack off with TPGK before. Had also seen him stack off with a GSSD & FD on flop. Which obviously tells you he likes to play his draws aggressively.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $5.00
CO: $6.56
BTN: $8.31
SB: $19.96
Hero (BB): $6.31

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q K

UTG raises to $0.20, fold, BTN calls $0.20, fold, Hero calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.62, 3 players) 8 7 T
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.60, fold, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($1.82, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($1.82, 2 players) 2
Hero bets $1.50, UTG raises to $4.20 and is all-in, Hero ???

Interested to see what people would put villain on?

Obviously I have the 2nd nuts but what else can we put villain on other than A high flush?

We know he plays his draws aggressively, which would explain the PSB on flop. Can we put villain on 2P/set and slows down because of the straight that could be out there on the turn? If that was the case though, he wouldn't suddenly wake up on the river and shove would he?

Can anybody put villain on anything other than the nut flush?

Bluffs and A high flushes, never folding.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

Bluffs and A high flushes, never folding.

Every time I have spoken about people possibly bluff-raising the river I have been told, or they have fixed my post, to villain is shoving for value. Why would this be any different?

Was his 4x open standard? I think their is a lot of hands that he would spew with on the river, sets 2pairs straights etc maybe he thinks he is value betting you but they are bluffs on this board, and you stated he was capable of spew.

Their are 7 A high flushes in his range though but im not folding unless he shows me Ax of spades. He might also have a worse flush J9s but i dunno how wide 17 PFR is. I just put them on general ranges on how they play and what hands they could have, i don't have a HUD you see.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

Was his 4x open standard? I think their is a lot of hands that he would spew with on the river, sets 2pairs straights etc maybe he thinks he is value betting you but they are bluffs on this board, and you stated he was capable of spew.

Their are 7 A high flushes in his range though but im not folding unless he shows me Ax of spades. He might also have a worse flush J9s but i dunno how wide 17 PFR is. I just put them on general ranges on how they play and what hands they could have, i don't have a HUD you see.

Ah right OK. Yeah 4x open was his standard raise. He was 15/15 UTG, so with that in mind I think we can rule out J9s.

77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo thats 15% range in Pokerstove

You can modify it to suit him add more pp's remove some suited A's etc then there would be less A high flushes in his range or whatever you think he was opening. And if he plays his draws aggro then he's betting this turn more often than not.

I hope you didn't fold.

As stated above, you can't really fold this river. As9s and As7s beat you, but would he really raise any smaller suited A UTG? It's true it's not a happy call, but there are also bluffs and straights and a worse flush in his range (missed straight draws, slow played straights, etc).

Also:
1) you cold call raises a lot OOP (looking at the other hands you posted). Start 3-betting more (or folding). If you think he is the kind who raises all suited aces UTG, then surely there is value in 3-betting KQs.

2) I check raise this flop all day long against this opp with a flush draw and two overcards. And get it in if he shoves over.

^^ don't take my word for it, some better player may be around shortly saying how dumb that is

Originally Posted by daviddem

As stated above, you can't really fold this river. As9s and As7s beat you, but would he really raise any smaller suited A UTG? It's true it's not a happy call, but there are also bluffs and straights and a worse flush in his range (missed straight draws, slow played straights, etc).

Also:
1) you cold call raises a lot OOP (looking at the other hands you posted). Start 3-betting more (or folding). If you think he is the kind who raises all suited aces UTG, then surely there is value in 3-betting KQs.

2) I check raise this flop all day long against this opp with a flush draw and two overcards. And get it in if he shoves over.

^^ don't take my word for it, some better player may be around shortly saying how dumb that is

In this example, I am not really comfortable 3betting KQs OOP to 2 players, especially an UTG raise. If you bump any other threads where I have done this, I will try to explain my reasoning in those threads as well.

Sorry I missed the fact that the button had called. Depending on who the button is, this may be a squeeze opportunity though.

Yes this is a good squeeze spot UTG's range isn't super tight and depending on how willing the BTN is to call a 3bet this is a decent spot to raise/fold.

Now Coby...didn't u say u were going to include ur range estimations in ur HHs from now on?

Don't make me have to tell you again, young man.

AsJs is the only hand that beats you and makes sense. I doubt he checks As9s on the turn, and its unlikely he has As7s or lower even though he does raise 17%.

So i mean, there is exactly 1 combination of hands that beat you. You said he stacks off with TPGK, so surely he can have TP, two pair, a set, or a straight here enough of the time to outweigh when he has this one combination? Surely he can be just "clicking buttons" enough to outweigh it?

What's your range on the river when you bet?

Villain has AJss often here as it's really the only combo that makes any sense that beats us - villain pots flop 3-way, checks the joint worst card in the deck on the turn and then he wants to play for stacks when you look pretty nutted with that sizing (not a fan of river sizing btw).

This would only be a fold against the world's biggest nit though - we're getting such good pot odds and there's always a chance that this is just a terribly played 99, aces, set or bluff.