[5NL] Good time to bluff?

Villain was ridiculously tight. 7/2 through 57 hands.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $10.26
Hero (CO): $5.97
BTN: $24.31
SB: $2.89
BB: $5.40

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has K 6

fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, SB calls $0.13, fold

Flop: ($0.35, 2 players) 3 2 9
SB bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.55, 2 players) 9
SB bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.55, SB calls $0.35

River: ($1.65, 2 players) 4
SB checks, Hero bets $1.00, fold

Hero wins $1.58

I figure with villain being so tight he might have an overpair although most likely he holds 2 big cards as he prob 3bets QQ+.

On the flop, I put him on a diamond FD and called just planning to take the pot away on the turn.

On the turn, when he bets pretty small again, I am pretty much convinced he is on a FD and seems as the perfect turn card fell for me I decided to rep the 9. When he calls I am obviously praying no diamond on river.

River looks clean to me and I decide to bet it again, as I would if I had the 9. Thankfully it worked.

Just wondered if this was a better timed bluff than some of my others or whether I just got lucky and it was dumb play?

smaller pre, fold flop, fold turn, meh river i mean it needs to work 40% or more and iunno.

smaller pre? As in limp or min-raise? I prefer fold over both of those options. I don't know.... 5 handed... K6s on CO... I might raise to steal the blinds pre.

Posting results is bad.

This tight of a Villain is the most likely to be able to fold, and the board ran out well for a bluff, but I don't see you putting Villain on a range of hands and figuring out which of those hands will fold OTR. The number of combos that Villain folds OTR divided by number of combos in Villain's range going to the river is your fold equity.

Do the EV calc for your bluff, then compare it to the fold equity.

Was your bluff +EV?

??? Your slightly +eV open pre due to the super tight sb got a call from the nittiest of nits. Don't even bother with the hand postflop versus someone whose range has you absolutely crushed. You basically took a marginal spot and turned it into a huge -eV situation.

If you are ever going to bluff at all because you think his flop donk bet is weak/too small to be a value bet, do it on the flop imo. And give up if he continues.

Also your turn raise is way too small as it gives him direct odds to call with a flush draw and overs.

I forgot to add that the raise was purely as a steal pre, not thinking I have a legit hand.

If this isn't a time to steal, when is? He is a super nit and the board comes 239 which is absolutely nowhere near his nitty range. The fact he leads out so small, twice, makes him look weak. I just don't understand why this isn't a good spot to bluff.

@MMM - I have no idea how to do all the maths side of poker. Not all of us have the ability to be able to do that. The second half of your post doesn't even make sense to me.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I forgot to add that the raise was purely as a steal pre, not thinking I have a legit hand.

If this isn't a time to steal, when is? He is a super nit and the board comes 239 which is absolutely nowhere near his nitty range. The fact he leads out so small, twice, makes him look weak. I just don't understand why this isn't a good spot to bluff.

@MMM - I have no idea how to do all the maths side of poker. Not all of us have the ability to be able to do that. The second half of your post doesn't even make sense to me.

You HAVE to have a basic understanding of ranges, math, odds and EV. Spoonitnow and others here have made some awesome posts about that and especially Spoon has made them as easy to understand as it gets. Read and understand these, it will be time well spent. If you have difficulties, ask away. Then if you want to go further read Sklansky's no limit book.

Must read posts:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ad-177296.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ge-177508.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ad-180192.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ws-173190.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...tc-161721.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...rs-165910.html

Once you have read and understood the first three posts (and the first two do not have any math in them, they only call on you being logic), you will be able to come back here and:
1) put your opponent on a range after he has checked the river, taking into account his actions on the previous streets
2) figure which part of this range would call your river bet and which part would fold
3) based on the above, calculate the EV of your bluff

Not a good play.

Preflop is nice if BTN/SB/BB are tight.

Just fold the flop and don't bluff vs super nits. A guy who is roughly 7/2 doesn't have many flush draws in his range when calling oop.

Originally Posted by Hoopy

Just fold the flop and don't bluff vs super nits. A guy who is roughly 7/2 doesn't have many flush draws in his range when calling oop.

This is why it IS a good idea to bluff. When he has no flushes in his range, he will be afraid of flushes. FWIW, suited broadways are always in Villain's ranges... maybe not all of the KTs and QTs hands, but almost definitely, KQs, KJs.

You can't bluff stations, because they'll call with any pair. You CAN bluff nits because they're more conscious of board textures and the frailties of an overpair.

Ask yourself this: What kind of player is most likely to hero-fold AA OTR?

The more nitty someone is, the more susceptible they will be to folding a mediocre hand. Remember that even AA can be mediocre when the board is JT98J with 4 of a suit.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

This is why it IS a good idea to bluff. When he has no flushes in his range, he will be afraid of flushes. FWIW, suited broadways are always in Villain's ranges... maybe not all of the KTs and QTs hands, but almost definitely, KQs, KJs.

You've got some good points but we can't assume he's thinking much at this level. Steal preflop if we know BTN/BB are tight as well, fold to his flop bet because we lose to everything in his range.

Don't bluff strong ranges monkey it might work but its not a good idea.
Nits station a lot cos they had a good hand alot. Fold the flop cos why the fuck not you win from this villain by never paying him of and by relentless stealing. And ocasionaly coolering his monster range.

Can anyone name any hand that Villain has on the flop that he folds on the turn ever?

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Can anyone name any hand that Villain has on the flop that he folds on the turn ever?

So I guess we're bluffing the river then.

{ 88-66 } to name a few. I find it quite possible that a 5NL nit would make tiny bets with these hands OOP and be rather inclined to b/f.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

{ 88-66 } to name a few. I find it quite possible that a 5NL nit would make tiny bets with these hands OOP and be rather inclined to b/f.

I guess I should have specified "to that raise size."

This is a terrible hand to bluff with for 1 reason, your hands complete trash and has no equity vs villains range.

The turn isn't a good card to bluff at either as the fact that another 9 hits means it's less likely you have one, this then means that what little fold equity you might of had on the flop is now gone completely and i'd expect to get peeled here nearly all of the time by hands like AJ AK AQ PP's etc basically all villains range except maybe a few combos of Khigh.

Also if you've been fairly active recently and been stealing a lot this looks even less credible. I'm not trying to be rude but imo this hand is total spew and you should avoid taking this line again with like no equity.

Aside from situations like cbetting vs opponents who fold too much, you can be a solid winner at 5nl without looking for reasons to bluff. Indeed, you may be better served by looking for reasons not to.

No reason to call on the flop, but in the end it payed off, but what if he actually had the 9??? Then your caught unless you bluff the hearts, which I think is what he thought you had imo...