Quote Originally Posted by daviddem View Post
OK you can assume that this is his continuing range to your turn bet: KK+, JJ, 88, 66, AKs, KJs, AKo, KJ. For simplicity assume he never c/r any of this, but just calls. You already calculated your equity E against this range. You know the pot size P and the bet size B. You are trying to find which folding frequency F you need for the EV of all the outcomes to be greater than 0.

Refer to part #13 of http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ad-180192.html

Pretty much all you have to do is plug in all the numbers in that equation: set EV=0, plug in all the other numbers and find F.
I'm all for helping people learn how to model poker situations so that they can figure things out on their own.

However, I'm of the opinion that the link above won't really get across the point in this particular hand because we are in position with an opportunity to check behind to see a free card. What I mean is that we would really like to know when the EV of betting is better than the EV of checking instead of just knowing when the EV of betting is positive.

Also, ignoring the Villain's chance to raise us affects our EV quite a bit. Perhaps unrelated, but this is one of the reasons why all-in semi-bluffs are so powerful.

To help with the analysis of this hand, I added a part 20 to the thread you linked to above titled "Non-allin Semi-bluff, In Position on the Turn." I also included a simple spreadsheet to make it easier to check different scenarios.

Here are four sample values for the OP's hand with a constant 10 percent chance of Villain raising based on the assumptions posted in part 20 of the link above.

-$0.14 (calls 60%, folds 30%)
-$0.06 (calls 50%, folds 40%)
+$0.02 (calls 40%, folds 50%)
+$0.10 (calls 30%, folds 60%)

I hope someone finds this useful.