[5nl] AQ on BTN, trips on turn, bad river

Villain is 0/0 over 4 hands.

Played passively pre and flop, to get max value from worse aces. Think I should have raised turn though.
River seemed like a hard decision at the time, but it turns out I have 32.5% equity against [KK, 44, A9s+, ATo+], which is exactly what I need. I don't see him having any flushes (A, K, and J are gone) or QT. Considering that 44 should probably discounted somewhat and that he sometimes has worse aces or even KQ or KJ if he's bad and thinks I don't have the A, it looks like a clear call.

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

UTG ($2.35)
UTG+1 ($5.07)
MP1 ($5.72)
MP2 ($5)
CO ($5.62)
Hero (Button) ($9.40)
SB ($3.14)
BB ($12.57)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, A
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.47) 4, A, K (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.07) A (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

River: ($2.27) J (2 players)
MP2 bets $2.20, Hero?

I like pre/flop. I think once he sizes turn that way I would raise turn some of the time. I think that sizing indicates some weakness or some very strong hand. If we raise turn and get shoved on we can deal with that then.

I think he peels turn raise with worse, and probably jams AK/A4/44 some times. I don't think he ever jams worse than us.

As played, his river sizing makes me want to fold. People don't try bluffing other ppl off Ax, and people don't suddenly bet this big with A5 or something.

Originally Posted by Fielmann

I have 32.5% equity against [KK, 44, A9s+, ATo+]

I just realised that the part in bold doesn't make much sense, because hands from A2 to AT are all equal here.

I have 10% equity against [KK, 44, AQ+]. So I guess it comes down to how often I think he would do it with A2-AT. I need the equivalent of about 5 combos.

Hmmm... I view this differently. As villain is an unknown and this is 5nl where most villains are nits, his range on the turn of aces is AT-AK, none of which he is folding. However he's sometimes not a nit and actually an idiot, so I call his small bet hoping he'll bet the river as well. When he bets big on the river, I'm a bit more concerned and put him on AJ-AK & KK if he is nitty but then you need to add some hands in case he isn't nitty which include 44 and a bunch of random aces, mostly suited. As he's unknown I'm calling but AQ is the bottom of my calling range.

Calling the flop is fine, but I think that you should really be raising the turn here. You can get a ton of value here. Come post this hand in the FTR CHAT ROOM (no download needed).

I like your play pre and flop but in turn you have to raise to the villain pay some draws. As played may be fold because he pushes a pot bet in river that sometimes is the cheese

lol the cheese

i'd probably raise the turn to about $1.5

as played i don't think we'll see worse than a flush on this river