[5NL] AKs OOP against UTG 4bet

Villain is 41/22/17 (3bet) through 78 hands. Fold to 3bet was 50%, 4/8.

Had a note that villain called a 4xBB UTG raise, in CO, with A4o.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $7.07
UTG: $9.67
CO: $2.95
BTN: $5.07
SB: $6.29

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has K A

UTG raises to $0.15, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.55, UTG raises to $1.50, Hero ???

This is probably a super standard spot but I am constantly in it and don't know what to do. I probably don't value AK as high as most people, the way I see it is you're either ~50/50 or way behind, so it's not my favourite hand.

Are we happy to get it all-in here? If I call his 4bet it makes me look like exactly what I have got. If I flop an A or K, I am getting no action from JJ or QQ and I am probably way behind if I do get called.

With these reads, I'm jamming it in here. Sounds like the type who will stack off with AQ, AJ, even AT or KQ. Thinking AK is never way ahead is pretty bad thinking imo.

Originally Posted by eugmac

With these reads, I'm jamming it in here. Sounds like the type who will stack off with AQ, AJ, even AT or KQ. Thinking AK is never way ahead is pretty bad thinking imo.

Do you ever stack off with AQ or worse?

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Do you ever stack off with AQ or worse?

Are you asking if I would jam AQ or worse vs this villain, or if I would call you with AQ or worse if I were villain...?

Case 1, it might be kinda close with AQ, otherwise no, case 2 I'm not this villain so it's not so who cares.

Originally Posted by eugmac

Are you asking if I would jam AQ or worse vs this villain, or if I would call you with AQ or worse if I were villain...?

Case 1, it might be kinda close with AQ, otherwise no, case 2 I'm not this villain so it's not so who cares.

Do you ever stack off with AQ or worse against regs?

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Do you ever stack off with AQ or worse against regs?

This is almost never good without some kind of history.

Get it in like a mofuckah. You're ahead of his getting-it-in range.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

[...] the way I see it is you're either ~50/50 or way behind [...]

A) 50/50 with dead money in the pot is a great gamble.
B) "way behind" = ~34% equity against KK and ~12% against AA.

23% against { KK+ }
35% against { QQ+ }
38% against { QQ+,AKs }
40% against [ JJ+,AKs }

Add in fold equity. Add in the fact that everyone at the table saw you jam with AKs and when you do it with AA,KK, they're more likely to call with PP.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

A) 50/50 with dead money in the pot is a great gamble.
B) "way behind" = ~34% equity against KK and ~12% against AA.

23% against { KK+ }
35% against { QQ+ }
38% against { QQ+,AKs }
40% against [ JJ+,AKs }

Add in fold equity. Add in the fact that everyone at the table saw you jam with AKs and when you do it with AA,KK, they're more likely to call with PP.

Every situation you listed we are behind, why would we want to put our money in when we are behind? We are almost never ahead when we stack off with AK in any game against any villain.

The point I was trying to make with the AQ post, is that regs won't stack off with AQ or worse, or at least I have never seen it, so you are always hoping to win a race or you're way behind.

It just makes no sense to me at all.

There is dead money in the pot.

You don't need 50% equity. There's over $2 dead in the pot on your decision.

You have
$7.07 - $0.55 = $6.52
behind

Villain has you covered, so f you jam and Villain calls, the pot will be
2*$7.07 + $0.02 = $14.16

So you'd be betting $6.52 to win a pot of $14.16
If you jam, AND IF Villain calls, you only need...
$6.52/$14.16 = 46%

So you will break even (ignoring rake) in the long run if you have 46% total equity. If you have 40% equity against Villain's calling range and a decent amount of fold equity, then you are making a +EV play.

What ranges do you put Villain on for a UTG open 5-handed, then the 4-bet range, then the call a 5-bet jam range?

You should also have a ton of fold equity. Villain's stats says he 3bets 17%. If you think he will only continue to a shove with JJ+, AQs, AKo (3.3%), then he is folding 80% of the time. (I realize 78 hands is a relatively small sample size for 3bets, but he still sounds much looser than a reg.) Or if he continues with a wider range (something like 99+, AJ+, KQ), then you have 58% equity against his calling range.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

There is dead money in the pot.

You don't need 50% equity. There's over $2 dead in the pot on your decision.

You have
$7.07 - $0.55 = $6.52
behind

Villain has you covered, so f you jam and Villain calls, the pot will be
2*$7.07 + $0.02 = $14.16

So you'd be betting $6.52 to win a pot of $14.16
If you jam, AND IF Villain calls, you only need...
$6.52/$14.16 = 46%

So you will break even (ignoring rake) in the long run if you have 46% total equity. If you have 40% equity against Villain's calling range and a decent amount of fold equity, then you are making a +EV play.

What ranges do you put Villain on for a UTG open 5-handed, then the 4-bet range, then the call a 5-bet jam range?

UTG open he could have 99+, AJs+, AQo+ maybe KQs.

4bet narrows it down to JJ+, AKs/AKo.

If he calls a shove, I think QQ (maybe) KK+ and AKs/AKo.

Let's say villain was a 22/20/6 (3bet) in this spot, what would we do differently?

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

UTG open he could have 99+, AJs+, AQo+ maybe KQs.

4bet narrows it down to JJ+, AKs/AKo.

If he calls a shove, I think QQ (maybe) KK+ and AKs/AKo.

Let's say villain was a 22/20/6 (3bet) in this spot, what would we do differently?

Why do you think this particular villain (who is 41/22/17 [3bet] over 78 hands) is positionally aware and would only call a shove with QQ+, AK? Is his play otherwise solid, and you think his numbers haven't settled down to where they should be yet?

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

UTG open he could have 99+, AJs+, AQo+ maybe KQs.

This makes no sense. Also, he didn't open from UTG.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

This makes no sense. Also, he didn't open from UTG.

He definitely opened from UTG.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

He definitely opened from UTG.

nup

table was short, duder.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

He definitely opened from UTG.

In 6-max games, UTG is three of off the button, and MP is two. This guy opened from two off of the button.

I just pointed it out because I lot of people don't notice things like that and make bad assumptions because of it.

The whole topic of whether or not AK is going to be a +EV 3-bet/4-bet/5-bet against tight regulars basically comes down to the whole argument between balance and exploitative play. If you're 3-bet/5-bet bluffing to some degree (like you should be against these players), then it's critical to have AK in your range because most of their adjustments to call wider will put AK against hands it dominates (ie: adding AQ is 12 combinations if you hold AK, but adding TT is just 6).

Raising AK in general is also interesting pre-flop because there are a lot of situations where you can expect your opponent to fold better and continue with worse in terms of hot and cold equity because hold'em hands equities aren't transitive. For the simple example I use a lot, you might get him to fold 22 and call with JTs.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

UTG open he could have 99+, AJs+, AQo+ maybe KQs.

4bet narrows it down to JJ+, AKs/AKo.

If he calls a shove, I think QQ (maybe) KK+ and AKs/AKo.

{ 99+,AJs+,KdQd,KhQh,AQo+ } is 74 combos. (I eliminated 1/2 of the KQ combos since you said maybe.)

{ JJ+,AKs,AKo } is 40 combos.
So that means Villain folds 74 - 40 hands out of 74, or 34/74, which is 46%.

{ KK+,QdQh,QdQs,QdQc,AKs,AKo } is 31 combos. (Again, I took out 1/2 of the QQ combos, since you said maybe.)
So Villain folds (40 - 31)/40 = 23% of the time, and Villain calls (1 - 23%) = 77% of the time

When Villain calls, you have ~41% equity.

So, the EV of your jam is:
money you win when Villain folds * percent of the time Villain folds
+ money you win when villain calls * percent of the time Villain calls.
$2.02*23% + (money you win when villain calls)*77%

Right now you have $6.52.
If you win, you will have $14.16. You will net $14.16 - $6.52 = $8.54, which will happen 41% of the time.
If you lose, you will lose $6.52, which will happen 59% of the time.
(Note: this just splits the equity evenly for the case of chopped pots.)

So, the money you win when villain calls is
$8.54*41% - $6.52*59%

And the whole EV calculation is
EV = $2.02*23% + ($8.54*41% - $6.52*59%)*77%
which reduces to:
EV = $0.45 + ($3.50 - $3.78)*0.77
EV = $0.45 + (-$0.28)*0.77
EV = $0.45 + -$0.22
EV = $0.23

The EV of a shove, given those ranges (which have already been critiqued, so I wont add to it) is $0.23. Which is positive, or +EV.

Now, I've ignored rake, and in this case, rake is going to eat that small margin of $0.23, so it is a fair critique of my analysis.

If rake is 5%, then the amounts you win get smaller.
$2.02 becomes $1.92. $8.54 becomes $8.12.

The EV calc becomes
EV = $1.92*23% + ($8.12*41% - $6.52*58%)*77%
EV = $0.09

So the margin is smaller, but the EV is still positive. You will win almost 2 bb per shove over the long term.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Let's say villain was a 22/20/6 (3bet) in this spot, what would we do differently?

Well, this one has (20 - 6)/20 = 70% fold to 3-bet, so I'd say 3-bet any SC's, suited Ax, broadways, small and mid PP's and call with 99+.
EDIT: that stuff in red is stupid and wrong.
I mis-read the stats again.
I would need the stats on open raise, 4-bet and call a 5-bet jam.
The only one in there is open raise (PFR) of 20%

Originally Posted by daviddem

edit: you most likely won't get the same results, because I see he counted JJ+,AK in villain's range as 40 combos, which is wrong (he forgot to take the blockers in Hero's hand into account).

With A K blockers:

{ JJ+,AKs,AKo } is 27 combos.

{ KK+,QdQh,QdQs,QdQc,AKs,AKo } is 18 combos.
So Villain folds (27 - 18)/27 = 33% of the time, and Villain calls (1 - 23%) = 67% of the time

When Villain calls, you have ~41.18% equity. (note: Hero has diamonds, and I left the QQ combos with Q in for this equity. If I use the other 3 combos, the equity is 41.24%.)

The EV calculation is
EV = $2.02*33.33% + ($8.54*41.18% - $6.52*58.82%)*66.67%
which reduces to:
EV(no rake) = $0.46
EV(w/ rake) = $0.31

...

I'm shocked that the blockers make such a huge difference. The "w/ rake EV" more than tripled. Is this right? Did I make a hasty error? I have to split for work, so I can't double check it right now.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

There is dead money in the pot.

You don't need 50% equity. There's over $2 dead in the pot on your decision.

You have
$7.07 - $0.55 = $6.52
behind

Villain has you covered, so f you jam and Villain calls, the pot will be
2*$7.07 + $0.02 = $14.16

So you'd be betting $6.52 to win a pot of $14.16
If you jam, AND IF Villain calls, you only need...
$6.52/$14.16 = 46%

So you will break even (ignoring rake) in the long run if you have 46% total equity. If you have 40% equity against Villain's calling range and a decent amount of fold equity, then you are making a +EV play.

What ranges do you put Villain on for a UTG open 5-handed, then the 4-bet range, then the call a 5-bet jam range?

Wut? When you bet or raise for value, you need >50% equity against villain's calling range, period. Dead money or not. With rake you really need about 53%.

Dead money matters when you decide if you want to call a bet or not, not the same scenario.

If you really thought this 41/22/17(3b) villain is playing that absurdly tight 5 handed, it becomes questionable why you 3bet with AKs in the first place.

By the way, it's really unlikely that this villain is playing that tight.

technically, "under the gun" is whoever has to act first after the blinds are in.

but let's not split hairs. Cobra, try to think of the first to act 5-handed more as the hijack position, a mere 2 off the button.

lol

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

{ 99+,AJs+,KdQd,KhQh,AQo+ } is 74 combos. (I eliminated 1/2 of the KQ combos since you said maybe.)

{ JJ+,AKs,AKo } is 40 combos.
So that means Villain folds 74 - 40 hands out of 74, or 34/74, which is 46%.

{ KK+,QdQh,QdQs,QdQc,AKs,AKo } is 31 combos. (Again, I took out 1/2 of the QQ combos, since you said maybe.)
So Villain folds (40 - 31)/40 = 23% of the time, and Villain calls (1 - 23%) = 77% of the time

When Villain calls, you have ~41% equity.

So, the EV of your jam is:
money you win when Villain folds * percent of the time Villain folds
+ money you win when villain calls * percent of the time Villain calls.
$2.02*23% + (money you win when villain calls)*77%

Right now you have $6.52.
If you win, you will have $14.16. You will net $14.16 - $6.52 = $8.54, which will happen 41% of the time.
If you lose, you will lose $6.52, which will happen 59% of the time.
(Note: this just splits the equity evenly for the case of chopped pots.)

So, the money you win when villain calls is
$8.54*41% - $6.52*59%

And the whole EV calculation is
EV = $2.02*23% + ($8.54*41% - $6.52*59%)*77%
which reduces to:
EV = $0.45 + ($3.50 - $3.78)*0.77
EV = $0.45 + (-$0.28)*0.77
EV = $0.45 + -$0.22
EV = $0.23

The point is not to look at the EV of the shove in a vacuum, it's to compare it to the EV of other plays.

How do you profit when he only calls the shove with hands equal to or better than yours, and he folds all the hands that you crush? He is not making any mistake.

If you were taking the above ranges for granted, you'd be much better off calling, even oop, because of all that gob of hands in his range that you dominate and that he is going to stack off with when you both hit.

Now for the actual hand/ranges, I think he calls a lot with much worse, and you may get folds from some lower PP's, so shoving is still fine.

Originally Posted by daviddem

The point is not to look at the EV of the shove in a vacuum, it's to compare it to the EV of other plays.

How do you profit when he only calls the shove with hands equal to or better than yours, and he folds all the hands that you crush? He is not making any mistake.

If you were taking the above ranges for granted, you'd be much better off calling, even oop.

Now for the actual hand/ranges, I think he calls a lot with much worse, and you may get folds from some lower PP's, so shoving is still fine.

This is the point I am trying to make. Against most regs, this is the situation you will find yourself in most often.

The guy is not a reg though, he is a fish and likely to call with all sorts of shit, particularly hands that you dominate.

Even if he calls with all his PP, and only with AQ+ and one single combo of AJs, you already have your 50%.

Originally Posted by daviddem

The guy is not a reg though, he is a fish and likely to call with all sorts of shit, particularly hands that you dominate.

I know that, I wasn't talking about this particular hand, I meant in general.

How do you profit when he only calls the shove with hands equal to or better than yours, and he folds all the hands that you crush? He is not making any mistake.

Our point is... the guy is likely a retard and will call with AQ. End of thread.

Originally Posted by eugmac

Our point is... the guy is likely a retard and will call with AQ. End of thread.

You seem to be missing the point, during this thread I have mostly been talking about AK's playability against regs, not this particular hand.

I don't understand people talking about needing >50% equity v the calling range to make a good 5b shove. Are you really seriously contemplating calling a 4b when you have a profitable shove even if it isn't for "value"?

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

I don't understand people talking about needing >50% equity v the calling range to make a good 5b shove. Are you really seriously contemplating calling a 4b when you have a profitable shove even if it isn't for "value"?

ikr

How is the shove profitable with the ranges OP assumed, if your 5b shove gets only called by equal or better and folds all the worse hands?

Originally Posted by daviddem

How is the shove profitable with the ranges OP assumed, if your 5b shove gets only called by equal or better and folds all the worse hands?

Because if I push KK with 99$ in the pot and there is 1$ left and my opponent folds a bunch of shit that actually has a +eV call we are making our opponent make a massive error this way.

This probably isn't the case for the ranges OP gave(I'm too lazy to look now) but it's still probably going to be better then calling a 4b and not having a clue what to do postflop. Also since it has been proven to be +eV by MMM v even tighter ranges folding is definitely not our best option.

Originally Posted by daviddem

How is the shove profitable with the ranges OP assumed, if your 5b shove gets only called by equal or better and folds all the worse hands?

I'm calling it: You're going to have an epiphany about poker over this.

Originally Posted by daviddem

How is the shove profitable with the ranges OP assumed, if your 5b shove gets only called by equal or better and folds all the worse hands?

Set it up in a spreadsheet and play around with Villains 4bet range and 5bet shoving range and work out the overall EV. Only thing you need stove for is your equity in each case.

You basically want to list all the hands he 4bets with and the amount of combinations of them that he can have, how often %wise that he calls with each of these and find the number of combinations he calls with.

Then you have his calling% and folding %

Work out your equity on stove vs his calling range (using the combinations you had)

Then work out the EV of each of these and add them up
1) Folds, we win
2) Calls, we win
3) Calls, we lose

Probably best to have the fold pot and the call pot in bb's.

You can even factor in how much dead money affects the pot and also the difference made with different size raises.

edit - I think this works anyway.

I'm sure you could even make it more complicated and include how often % wise villain 4bets with each hand and try to include that to make it even better than mine.

That's probably a bit much though considering we'll have no idea for the msot part.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

Set it up in a spreadsheet and play around with Villains 4bet range and 5bet shoving range and work out the overall EV. Only thing you need stove for is your equity in each case.

You basically want to list all the hands he 4bets with and the amount of combinations of them that he can have, how often %wise that he calls with each of these and find the number of combinations he calls with.

Then you have his calling% and folding %

Work out your equity on stove vs his calling range (using the combinations you had)

Then work out the EV of each of these and add them up
1) Folds, we win
2) Calls, we win
3) Calls, we lose

Probably best to have the fold pot and the call pot in bb's.

You can even factor in how much dead money affects the pot and also the difference made with different size raises.

I sent you a PM.

F#cking fold equity, bro!

I have already shown that the shove has an EV of $0.09 profit. Unless you have a critique of the EV calc. above.

I'm willing to entertain the idea that there are more +EV lines with AKs, but your argument that it's a -EV shove has already been disproved. At least with the ranges that were put forward.

Because if I push KK with 99$ in the pot and there is 1$ left and my opponent folds a bunch of shit that actually has a +eV call we are making our opponent make a massive error this way.

This probably isn't the case for the ranges OP gave(I'm too lazy to look now) but it's still probably going to be better then calling a 4b and not having a clue what to do postflop. Also since it has been proven to be +eV by MMM v even tighter ranges folding is definitely not our best option.

I'm calling it: You're going to have an epiphany about poker over this.

We already had that conversation a long time ago. I am even the one who initiated it in this thread.

I also misread the assumed situation in MMM/Cobra's scenario. When we 5b we get folds from JJ and half of the QQ's, which are better hands, or, should I say have plenty enough equity to continue. That is where we profit. I mixed up villain's opening range with his 4b range, that is why I thought there were a bunch of dominated hands in his 4b range.

This being said, as yAAwn said and as was seen in that thread I linked to, there are situations where we prefer worse hands to fold, because our EV is higher if they fold than if they call. In other words, even though they are worse, these hands have enough equity to call profitably, and villain makes a mistake folding them. That is where we profit. See post 46 in the linked thread for a preflop example of this.

OP, let the numbers do the talking here when contemplating jamming over a 4bet against a reg. You're not going to be in brilliant shape vs a lot of micro nit regs when you get called (and your database will prove that), but overall it's likely to still be +EV once you factor in fold equity and the fact you're much more likely to get paid off when you do have KK+.

I hate rules, but when 3betting a value hand like AK, I'd say:
- you shouldn't even contemplate calling a 4bet oop 100bb effective, barring maybe AA against a LAG.
- you should be looking to get it in pre against all but the nittiest nit's 4bet (and you'd really need to ask yourself why you were 3betting a value hand in the first place if villain is such a nit.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Are we happy to get it all-in here? If I call his 4bet it makes me look like exactly what I have got. If I flop an A or K, I am getting no action from JJ or QQ and I am probably way behind if I do get called.

If you 4bet and someone flats, does that really scream out he must have AK? I'm not so sure it does.

Anyway, I've been inspired to actually work out the EV of shoving. First algebraically and then in the second spoiler exactly for your reads.

Spoiler: Show

We will say folding has an EV of 0. We will assume that the Villain has you covered (which he does)

F = Villain Folds to Shove
E = Equity Against Villains Calling Range
P = Pot Size (before you shove)
B = How much you shove over the top
C = How much it costs to call villains raise

There are 3 results which can happen if you shove.
1)Villain Folds
2)Villain Folds, You Win
3)Villain Folds, You Lose

Profit of Each
1)We win P
2)We win P+B
2)We lose B+C

The EV is our profit * how likely the outcome is

1) (P) * (F)
2) (P + B) * (1 - F) * (E)
3) (-B-C) * (1 - F) * (1 - E)

So our EV in this situation is

(P)(F) + (P+B)(1-F)(E) + (-B-C)(1-F)(1-E)

Spoiler: Show

So we have our formula from the spoiler above. Let's go about working out our EV in this situation.

Our EV is = (P)(F) + (P+B)(1-F)(E) + (-B-C)(1-F)(1-E)

P = $2.07 (1.55 from Villain, 0.55 from you, 0.02 from SB)
B = $5.57
C = $0.95

We now need to calculate how often he folds and our equity against his calling range. We'll start with the latter.

Equity, if he only calls with QQ+ and AK, pokerstove says

E = 0.34586 (i.e 34.586%)

Now how often he folds.

If he 4bets with JJ+ and AK, combination wise that's
JJ = 6
QQ = 6
KK = 3
AA = 3
AK = 9

He 4bets with all of them (27) and folds only JJ (6)

F = 6/27

All together (formula and variables) that's

(P)(F) + (P+B)(1-F)(E) + (-B-C)(1-F)(1-E)

P = 2.07
B = 5.57
C = 0.95
E = 0.34586
F = 6/27

Using the magic of a calculator

EV Shoving = -0.80 (2dp)

I quite enjoyed that so I may even attempt to set up a simple scenario to work out the EV of calling at some point later today. Although it depends how complicated I can be arsed to go.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

I quite enjoyed that so I may even attempt to set up a simple scenario to work out the EV of calling at some point later today. Although it depends how complicated I can be arsed to go.

i think you'll find this incredibly difficult given how many flops can fall and all the possible different ranges/betsizes each player can take when we try to factor play on later streets into precise EV calculations

Originally Posted by rpm

i think you'll find this incredibly difficult given how many flops can fall and all the possible different ranges/betsizes each player can take when we try to factor play on later streets into precise EV calculations

It's not really that difficult. If we know villains range and we know what our equity is what %. All we have to do is break the area under a curve into different portions to get a very good estimate of the EV of calling. This is super standard in PLO when we know our opponent have AAxx and is shoving 100% of flops. It should be similar in hold em but a little more difficult because we don't know exactly what actions villain will take. Not because of the finite number of flops. Calculating the equity of range v range on random flops takes just a few seconds.

edit: Just realized it's pretty much irrelevant because who flats 4bs when sizing is usually absurd and especially when rake is ridiculous.

^^ You are right that the bet (raise) size is 5.57, but I think in the EV calc you should use C+B as your loss when you shove and you loose (C being your call size=0.95), because that is the total amount you will add to the pot when you shove (C+B=6.52).

Someone correct me if I am wrong.

edit: to calculate the EV of calling you are going to have to make a lot of simplifying assumptions, but that will still give you a rough idea.

prior bets, made for value, do not count, they are dead money on this decision.

fold EV = 0

DUCY?

I am not talking about the money that Hero already put in the pot, which is indeed dead as you said. I am talking about the extra money Hero puts in the pot when he shoves, which is $6.52, not $5.57.

When you add 6.52 to the pot and you loose, you loose 6.52, no?

Like, if villain's raise to 1.50 was all-in, and Hero calls 0.95 and looses, his loss on the call is 0.95, not 0.

Originally Posted by daviddem

I am not talking about the money that Hero already put in the pot, which is indeed dead as you said. I am talking about the extra money Hero puts in the pot when he shoves, which is $6.52, not $5.57.

When you add 6.52 to the pot and you loose, you loose 6.52, no?

Like, if villain's raise to 1.50 was all-in, and Hero calls 0.95 and looses, his loss on the call is 0.95, not 0.

Sounds right. I'll edit it in. Probably a neater way of writing it now though, but I'm just going to add in how much it costs to call with C.

Can't help noticing that this makes the EV negative in the end. Try it if he folds half of his QQ combos (and of course calls with the other half of his QQ, so you need to put 3 QQ combos in Stove), like MMM did earlier (and see if you get the same result he gets).

edit: you most likely won't get the same results, because I see he counted JJ+,AK in villain's range as 40 combos, which is wrong (he forgot to take the blockers in Hero's hand into account).

Note - I swapped B with R (as I think it reads better and I'm saving it this time)

Originally Posted by rpm

i think you'll find this incredibly difficult given how many flops can fall and all the possible different ranges/betsizes each player can take when we try to factor play on later streets into precise EV calculations

It was going to be very simplistic.

Along the lines of (but slightly more complicated than) we fold any flop with no A or K (maybe FD too) and shove any flop we hit. Which I'd guess wouldn't be too far off the case given villains perceived range.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

Note - I swapped B with R (as I think it reads better and I'm saving it this time)

Is this for the case where half of the QQ fold?

Now take rake into account by multiplying all the profits (not the losses) by 0.95.

Originally Posted by daviddem

Is this for the case where half of the QQ fold?

Now take rake into account by multiplying all the profits (not the losses) by 0.95.

OK, so still a little positive. Actually funny that it ends up being the same result as MMM.

Waiting for your call scenario now...

Originally Posted by daviddem

OK, so still a little positive. Actually funny that it ends up being the same result as MMM.

Waiting for your call scenario now...

That'll be a while as I've got lots of work to do, which I should be doing now instead of posting on here :P

Typo in "(1 - 23%) = 67%" should be 33% but calculation is right.

That $8.54 should be $7.54

The slight difference in equity should make less than 1 cent difference in both EVs. I think this bigger difference is accounted for in the skewing that $8.54 does to the result. as the bigger it is the more skew there will be to a bigger answer.

MMM I did not check you calcs in detail (I stopped at the combo error), but I checked ImSavy's and they are right, so you should get the same $0.09 EV he does after 5% rake is applied.

Yes, I've had a chance to look over my work and your comments.

You are both correct. The 8.54 should be 7.64, and the 2.02 should be 2.07.

With those corrections, I complee agreetly with ImSavy.

For future reference please just call me Savy. I'm sure the "Im" part is just something I add when Savy is taken. /unimportant