[5NL] AKo Squeeze

MP1 is 15/8 over small 20ish hands
CO is 24/20 15.4% 3bet over 45 hands


Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players

MP1: $4.16 (83.2 bb)
MP2: $16.43 (328.6 bb)
MP3: $5.28 (105.6 bb)
CO: $5.86 (117.2 bb)
BTN: $1.72 (34.4 bb)
Hero (SB): $12.52 (250.4 bb)
BB: $12.50 (250 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A K
MP1 raises to $0.20, 2 folds, CO calls $0.20, BTN folds, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, CO calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.25) Q 7 6 (2 players)
Hero ??

Okay one, I'm not sure I like the squeeze so much as MP1 is raising UTG and thus probably has a strong range, but can I really call or fold PF here?

And two I'm having trouble figuring out a range for CO to call then call a 3bet. Something like 66-QQ? But then that doesn't make much sense as you would expect him to 3bet MP1 with like TT+... But then again maybe he elects to setmine 66-QQ against MP1 because he perceives MP1's range as strong?

And at any rate I don't think I cbet this board because I'm likely to get a hell of a lot more calls than folds out of the range I came up with...

Thoughts?

I'm def cbetting here but Imma cbet monkey and we have some (if little) equity. We have the Ad so I think we can b/f pretty small here cuzza blockers. I'd prolly hit it 1/2 pot during the hand but I think something more like .80 would work better. This could also be the most unintelligent post made on FTR today so... iunno.

squeeze pre for sure. Don't call. Don't fold.
bet flop, $1.30 seems good. But depends on what your normal cbet sizing is. Then again, against unknowns it doesn't matter. You could go smaller too, and think about what you're doing on various turns

CO may be set mining; although his stack isn't big enough to have decent implied odds, it's not like all NL5 players know this, and some do know but that doesn't stop them.

With no table sense as to the player in question, I'd tend to guess he has a middle pair that he didn't 3bet, so maybe 77-99. Less likely but not impossible are AA and KK where he hoped someone would squeeze.

The Co has 3b something like 7/45. his sample is really to small to really say he' either a: 3b'ing to much or b: flatting 3b's really light. His stats seem good otherwise, but again it's only 45 hands. He could just be being dealt hands in the top of his range.


So what does he call an ep ra' w/ and then flat our 3b???
prob 88-JJ,AJs+,AQo,KQs. maybe 77 too.

either way def bet this flop: $1.50

EDit: oops ignore my dumb math there. lol I was wondering how i knew how many times he faced a raise....

numbers would be nice here though instead of just a 3b%

Originally Posted by WeldPhaser

EDit: oops ignore my dumb math there. lol I was wondering how i knew how many times he faced a raise....

numbers would be nice here though instead of just a 3b%

Okay so that's a good point, he's had 13 chances to 3b which means he's only done it twice. That's definately a leak of mine, giving 3b percentage a high consideration over a small amount of hands. I'm always just like oh 15% that's really high, but often forget to look at the sample size. Also I think that's the major reason I had a problem putting him on a range.

And from the rest of you I gather you CBet to try and fold out all the set mining hands that missed like 88-JJ, as well as some big ace hands that missed.

However if I get called and blank the turn obviously I have to shut down, unless it's a diamond, but say I hit one of my two overs is it shoving time? Or am I dead to two pairs or a set most of the time?

If his range for calling the flop is

prob 88-JJ,AJs+,AQo,KQs. maybe 77 too.

which I think is fairly reasonable as a lot of these hands will prolly peel on that flop, can I then bet the turn if I hit an over? At that point I can't really get value from anything I beat and if I get called I'm basically dead or chopping except vs. KQ or AJs....

Yeah , I think ya only get a true sense of a 3b% over 500+ maybe more.