[5NL] AJs...TPTK. Turn decision

Villain is 48/28/20 (3bet) through 66 hands. Fold to cbet 50%, 2/4.

Only notes I had on villain was that he had previously 3bet my raise from the BB with 88. He made 1/2 PSCB on K high wet flop, before betting small amounts on turn & river.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): $7.41
CO: $8.35
BTN: $4.23
SB: $2.00
BB: $3.12

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A J

Hero raises to $0.20, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.42, 2 players) T 3 J
BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.62, 2 players) 5
BB bets $1.55, Hero ???

At first I was struggling to think of hands that I could beat and I thought it was an easy fold.

I put villain on a range of;

TT+,55,33,AJs,KJs+,QJs,Q9s,JTs,98s,AJo,KJo+,QJo,Q9 o,JTo,98o

PokerStove gives me

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,444 games 0.001 secs 4,444,000 games/sec

Board: Ts 3d Jc 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.626% 52.66% 02.97% 2340 132.00 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 44.374% 41.40% 02.97% 1840 132.00 { TT+, 55, 33, AJs, KJs+, QJs, Q9s, JTs, 98s, AJo, KJo+, QJo, Q9o, JTo, 98o }

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So in actual fact, if my range isn't way off, it actually would have made this a call now?

Thoughts?

I would remove 55 from his range i doubt he raises you on the flop with 55. He seems fairly strong here. I don't think he would raise you with many of his draws on the flop, and you said he bet small before when bluffing.

Stinks of two-pair JT or a set.

I don't think you can just say i have over 50% equity vs his betting range this is a call, if you don't have a fairly accurate idea of his range here and your going to play the river badly then your better off folding the turn imo.

What if he bombs the river? I mean a pair of Jacks with an Ace kicker is probably the bottom of your range here, so if you think he has a strong raising the flop range and betting large on the turn, that is, his range is weighted heavily for value it's probably going to be a fold.

To sum up calling the turn isn't going to be profitable if your going to be playing the river badly alot of the time imo. It's not fun playing a guessing game on the river when he bets almost pot, especially when you guess wrong.

That's just my opinion of course so take it fwiw.

A good exercise to do is break up your range on each street, according to how you want to exploit this villain then you can clearly see that AJ falls into your calling range, or folding range for example.

Although you've said he only folds to cbets 50%, you haven't said whether he seems to like to raise or call with them. Do you have that information? It would be really useful.

Flop minraise from a donk can be strong, but can also have KJ/QJ or some other nonsense.

I'm not folding yet, I'll see a river and re-eval.

You have all noticed villain is shortstacked right?

I don't have enough of a sample size for that information Pelion, only had 66 hands on villain.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

You have all noticed villain is shortstacked right?

I didn't.

He's committed himself, i'd just go with it. Since he is short stacked and not auto-topping up i'd assume he's a weaker player as well.

Keep calling imo.

Also tempted to shove the flop,

Oh didn't notice the stacks. ok I'd shove turn, he won't have enough to bluff a river if we call I don't think.