[5NL] A5o, blind vs blind, facing river min raise.

Villain was 56/20/0 (3bet) through 77 hands. Fold to cbet 0%, 0/2.

Had a couple of notes on villain. I had seen him stack off pre with JJ. He also defended his BB in a 3 way pot, with T9s. Flopped an OESD and donked with a small bet before calling a raise. Hits his straight on turn, c/r AI.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $5.00
CO: $5.00
BTN: $12.23
Hero (SB): $5.09
BB: $8.05
UTG: $14.52

Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 5 A

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.30, 2 players) 5 A 2
Hero bets $0.20, BB calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.70, 2 players) K
Hero bets $0.50, BB calls $0.50

River: ($1.70, 2 players) 3
Hero bets $1.20, BB raises to $2.40, Hero ???

Why would villain min/r here? The only hands I could put villain on was a flush? What would he min/r this river with that I have beat?

Should I even be betting this river? I think I am betting for value but wasn't expecting a raise.

With villain being in BB and pretty loose, can we put him on any 4x type hand? I can't think of one that he would play this way to the river as he showed he shoves with the nuts, so I don't think he could have 43 and I don't know of any other 4x hand that would get to the river unless it was a 4hxx hand.

Thought and opinions as always appreciated.

Not sure what you are hoping for when you open pre here. Just curious as to what your thought process going into the hand is.
Bigger flop, bigger turn, bigger river. Fold now I think. Pretty much impossible for villain to be raising a worst value hand and should be rare enough that you see a bluff.

edit: Just remember you are the guy that thinks not playing atc is nitty. Before you bash on my encouraging you to fold pre here. With how loose villain is playing he is playing pretty correctly here if you are opening a hand this bad.

... huh?
Folded to you in the SB and you're going to fold an Ace? No way. If for no other reason than to one and done it.

No reads on this guy BvB, and you are waiting for what? He may suck BvB and you have A5o Heads up. Would you fold A5o HU?

EDIT: You are not paying Villain off to call this min-raise OTR. If he was on a draw you made him draw to horrible implied odds on 2 streets meaning he needs ~$4.00 on this street to make a +EV straight/flush draw. He's not getting it. Also, you can take his strongest hands out of play, since it's not a shove. So there are straights, sets and AK and weaker 2 pair hands. I call this and see.

Wait, what's wrong with blindstealing with A5? If the BB folds more than 65% of the time, you make a profit. Bet / (Bet+Pot) = 13 / (13+7) = 0.65. Right? And if the BB is defending wider than 35%, then you are ahead of his range.

I love how you guys both say raise A5o for fold equity when we have absolutely no fold equity. Find better reasoning then that please.

If BB is calling super wide, hero would be ahead of his range, right? Isn't playing heads up against a weaker range a good thing?

Originally Posted by Malbrack

If BB is calling super wide, hero would be ahead of his range, right? Isn't playing heads up against a weaker range a good thing?

I just explained all this to cobra in IRC but basically it comes down to
A) When we hit our hand villain is going to play pretty correctly
B) When we miss our hand villain is going to play pretty correctly
C) Even if villain is only bluffing 10%(+ he hits hands and bets etc) assuming he is super passive and we get to check down most of the time we are only breaking even in this case.

You guys realize that most of the money you're going to make off this type of villain is through showdown right?

Obviously if you flop an ace, it's happy times; but what about those times you hit your 5?

If the flop is J95r what's your plan? If the turn is an 8?
If the flop is K72r do you cbet the flop? If you do and your cbet is called, what's your plan if the turn is an 5?

fold preflop versus someone who will rarely fold, and to whom we will be OOP against.

i'd pot the flop. aces won't fold. flush draws won't fold. pairs+gutters wont fold.

AP at least $0.6 on turn. don't mind $0.7, same reasoning as above.

AP i'd B/F river maybe $0.8 or $0.9

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

I just explained all this to cobra in IRC but basically it comes down to
A) When we hit our hand villain is going to play pretty correctly
B) When we miss our hand villain is going to play pretty correctly
C) Even if villain is only bluffing 10%(+ he hits hands and bets etc) assuming he is super passive and we get to check down most of the time we are only breaking even in this case.

Just to play devil's advocate, would you open T8o in SB vs the same villain?

By the above logic, with T8o, villain will be playing all Axx hands incorrectly, and all 8xx,Txx flops incorrectly - since you're running the assumption that he will assume we have Ax?

My standard is to steal with this particular hand. I would fold if villain was 3betting me a ton, or just generally being very difficult post.

Stealing this probably depends a lot on our reads of villain, and our dynamic overall.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Just to play devil's advocate, would you open T8o in SB vs the same villain?

By the above logic, with T8o, villain will be playing all Axx hands incorrectly, and all 8xx,Txx flops incorrectly - since you're running the assumption that he will assume we have Ax?

My standard is to steal with this particular hand. I would fold if villain was 3betting me a ton, or just generally being very difficult post.

Stealing this probably depends a lot on our reads of villain, and our dynamic overall.

wat, if the flop is Axx villain is way more likely to fold then if the flop is Txx. Ofcourse this is true. The problem with T8o is it absolutely never wins at showdown if we brick and A5o actually has some equity.

I think if villain is 3bing you a tonne you should be more willing to open Axo since it blocks a tonne of their 3bing/calling range although you can argue it's not enough of it and the 5 blocks too much of their folding range etc. but that just depends on what they are 3bing/calling.

Anyway villain is clearly being super stubborn post and never folding v us is going to be pretty damn correct when we have this hand. If this was 600NL I'd definitely be opening v the exact same villain but it isn't and their is uncapped rake.

edit: Also I would be 4-5xing v this villain if I'm opening, 3xing is just leaving money on the table

pre I open also against the fish (for value). Even if he plays correctly postflop, he still makes a mistake calling pre most of the time and if he is passive post flop, A high is going to win at showdown a lot when the hand is checked down. If he is the kind who always bluffs when checked to, you can c/c flop often and also this kind of villain often gives out sizing tells.

Also I would certainly argue that he doesn't always play correctly post flop. If you hit a pair of A you can get value from his draws and even some lower pairs or even some worse aces. If you hit a pair of 5 or A high, try to go for a cheap showdown.

As played +1 to pot flop, pot turn.
River b/f is good on one of the two worst cards in the deck. You still get value from worse aces and lower two pairs. Maybe a little smaller. I don't think he often turns a worse hand into a bluff here and basically all his draws have completed.

Opening 3bb doesn't really seem to make sense pre against this type of villain. This isn't really all that great of a postflop hand to play OOP against a villain who doesn't fold pairs+. We'll get some value when we hit top pair (but it's a really high RIO situation), we'll never be able to bluff because he's never folding a pair (and we beat pretty much everything that isn't a pair), and we're probably mostly going to just be playing for showdown when we have an okay hand.

I don't know if this means we should go harder or not play at all (which seems nitty).

As for postflop, wutareyoudoing bet every street harder. As for river, fold. I can't imagine this is how he'd play a lesser two pair, and there are so many hands that are beating us.