[5NL] 88 BTN

Villain is 19/7 3.0 3bet over 200 hands.
Fold to steal is 54% and every time he has 3bet he has been in the blinds.

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

UTG+2: $5.31 (106.2 bb)
MP1: $5 (100 bb)
MP2: $2.62 (52.4 bb)
MP3: $6.07 (121.4 bb)
CO: $2.99 (59.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): $12.50 (250 bb)
SB: $10 (200 bb)
BB: $5.29 (105.8 bb)
UTG+1: $5.07 (101.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8 8
6 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, SB raises to $0.50, BB folds, Hero calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.05) 6 5 7 (2 players)
SB bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75 (??)

Turn: ($2.55) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.60 (??) , SB calls $1.60

River: ($5.75) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks (??)


Looking for feedback on all streets here.

So due to his wide(r) range in the blinds I think a call is fine here, I think he's 3betting a lot of big aces, some suited broadways, and big pairs like 99+.

Even if I assumed he had something like QQ+ I'm pretty sure I have the right odds to set mine here but I'm not entirely sure on the math there so maybe someone could double check that?

But I'm not assuming he has just QQ+, I'm going to say he has something like AT+, KJ, KQ, 99+. Stoving that though I only have 45% equity... I'm interested in hearing what everyone else thinks his range could be here. The reason I widen his range this wide is because it's a blind defense scenario... The top 3% of hands is 99+, AKs (?), but because all of his 3bet has been in the blinds I think he's aware of the practice of blind stealing and is trying to exploit me.


The flop I think I could profitably raise against the afformentioned range, folding out all of his missed overs and I have the added equity of an OESD should he call, but obviously interested in hearing feedback here. (His c-bet is 67%, 6 chances)


Turn should have been bigger if I was going to bet but I think checking back is probably better as calling the flop his range is weighted more towards overpairs (?).


River I think as played checking back is fine... There's nothing I can value bet against as played.

Villain has probably only 3b 5 times, but at a 9-handed table, there's probably less than 30% chance that a 3b comes from the blinds, so it happening 5/5 times is statistically significant (in case you were wondering about that). His range is still almost definitely strong, though. He probably just flats monsters when he's in position and then 3b's like AJ+/99+ (6.3% of hands) OOP. That's a lot of guess work, but cliffnotes: his range is strong regardless, but he probably does have some medium-strength broadways and middle pairs in his range.

After that, we need reads on how villain plays postflop for us to decide what to do preflop and (much more importantly) why we're doing it (what plan are we taking and where are we making our money).

It helps to know, for example, if we're flatting for pure set mining value and just folding on any other flop ever (good against players whose entire range is overpairs [or premium broadways if he way overplays these hands and takes ridiculous bluffs with them and stuff even when they whiff] and has a lot of trouble folding these, even 200bb's deep).

It helps to know if we're flatting for predominately set mining value, but we can win the pot at showdown sometimes too which can make up for the times he gets off the hook for cheap (good against players who have enough broadways to where we're ahead a lot on low flops and villain will fire a predictable amount of barrels when he misses [whether that's 1 street or 0] and in this case we don't necessarily need to stack villain every single time we hit).

It helps to know if we're calling because plain and simple we're doing well against his range preflop, and we don't think his range/skill properly exploits us (whether that means that his range is too bottom heavy and he bluffs these too hard for us to ever really have to fold postflop or if that means that he's got a good balance of premiums with some A2s/76s type stuff too, but he still plays too transparently by only running multi-street bluffs with monster draws and all that, so we can comfortably call a street on most boards and figure he has a better made hand or a premium bluffing hand if he bets anymore than that).

I know, that's a lot of rambling, but I think that this is really the key of the hand (for example, I could see arguing for a call, a raise or a fold on the flop depending on what type of player this is and what our plan for exploitation is).

No issue with calling preflop and flop

Turn is meh - i beleive that your only folding out hands you are ahead of anyway and if called have to catch a card or play pokers against someone who at 19/7 doesnt like to fold stongest hands without a real reason

$.7

try to get that ak high to call