[2NL] KTs...Maths/Odds question

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $3.72
BTN: $2.56
Hero (SB): $2.58
BB: $2.00
UTG: $0.79
MP: $2.00

Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has T K

UTG raises to $0.06, fold, CO calls $0.06, fold, Hero calls $0.05, fold

Flop: ($0.20, 3 players) 9 6 2
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.08, CO raises to $0.16, Hero calls $0.16, UTG raises to $0.73 and is all-in, fold, Hero calls $0.57

Turn: ($1.82, 2 players) 9

River: ($1.82, 2 players) Q

Hero shows T K (One Pair, Nines) (Pre 17%, Flop 33%, Turn 16%)
UTG shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Nines) (Pre 83%, Flop 67%, Turn 84%)
UTG wins $1.76

Not particularly bothered about the overall hand just wondered how you work out whether or not you get the right price to call or not when you have a FD as I have no idea...

0.57/1.82 means you need about 30%. You have 8 or 9 outs here most of the time, two streets to hit them = about 32 or 36%. This is greater than 30%. Call. There is a big post about how to calculate pot odds - i think it's a spoonitnow post linked in the uber-sticky list that rpm put together.

9 outs times 2% = 18% per street... 82/18 = 4.56:1

Your first call was $0.16... 4.56*$0.16 = $0.73 total you need from the pot that is not your money (anything you put in the pot prior to this street is NOT your money).

Amount in the pot when you call: $0.44.

You need $0.29 in implied odds if/when you catch OTT.

Your second call was $0.57 but all-in with 2 cards to come, so ~33%, as the equity calc shows. However (correct me if I'm wrong here) Your prior bet WAS NOT a value bet, so it can not be left out at this time.

You are calling $0.73 w/ about 2:1 odds over 2 streets
You need $1.46 in the pot that has not been put there by you on this street.
That amount is $1.17, and not enough to justify the call.

The problem is that you needed implied odds on the first call to make the draw over 1 card, but then you called the second time to draw over 2 cards without any implied odds.

HOWEVER. We didn't know Villain had AA. There was no reason to think your overcards were both bad, so wp.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

9 outs times 2% = 18% per street... 82/18 = 4.56:1

Your first call was $0.16... 4.56*$0.16 = $0.73

It can be a bit impractical to use so many decimal spaces when the rule of 2% is just an approximation anyway. Since the odds of hitting a 9 outer on turn are actually 4.1:1, I've found it easier to just memorise that a flush draw is 4:1 for the next card and 2:1 when you can see both cards.

Your second call was $0.57 but all-in with 2 cards to come, so ~33%, as the equity calc shows. However (correct me if I'm wrong here) Your prior bet WAS NOT a value bet, so it can not be left out at this time.

You are calling $0.73 w/ about 2:1 odds over 2 streets
You need $1.46 in the pot that has not been put there by you on this street.

I don't understand the part in bold. What's in the pot is in the pot regardless of who put it there or whether it was bet as a bluff or a value bet. Hero needs to call $0.57, so there needs to be roughly $1.14 in the pot. There is actually $1.25, so easy call, especially since K's and T's are sometimes outs too.

Also this: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

^Big time.^
I fold this pre

Originally Posted by kickass

^Big time.^
I fold this pre

I'm with kick on this.

PokerStrategy.com - Learn the best Online Poker Strategy
Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.19% 39.42% 1.77% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
CO 32.03% 30.08% 1.95% { 66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
SB 26.78% 25.33% 1.44% { KcTc }

Let's check a different board texture that gives you TP vs. these ranges:

PokerStrategy.com - Learn the best Online Poker Strategy
Board: Th5s9d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 30.45% 29.31% 1.14% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
CO 26.23% 24.66% 1.57% { 66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
SB 43.32% 41.53% 1.79% { KcTc }

How much value will you get post w/ TP ??

Originally Posted by daven

0.57/1.82 means you need about 30%. You have 8 or 9 outs here most of the time, two streets to hit them = about 32 or 36%. This is greater than 30%. Call. There is a big post about how to calculate pot odds - i think it's a spoonitnow post linked in the uber-sticky list that rpm put together.

I thought there was but couldn't find it, although I was pretty tired last night.

Originally Posted by kickass

I fold this pre

care to expand on this, kick?

the thing that bothers me is UTG's stack - doesn't seem to make much sense playing an implied odds hand vs. a 39bb stack.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I thought there was but couldn't find it, although I was pretty tired last night.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ws-173190.html

and also

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

(not exactly your question but lots of useful math in there)

We oop with a hand that's well behind villains range and no implied odds. Give me a reason to do something other than fold.