[2NL] KQs IP vs LAGG

MP was 34/31 through 29 hands. Very aggressive, raising every button and SB to steal, 4betting me every time I tried to defend with a 3bet. Also cbet 50% of the time.

UTG was 23/6 through 35 hands, limping 23% of the time and folding to a raise, after limping, 67% of the time.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($2.77)
UTG ($1.70)
MP ($2.59)
Hero (CO) ($2)
Button ($1.97)
SB ($3.86)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, Q
UTG calls $0.02, MP bets $0.09, Hero calls $0.09, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.07

Flop: ($0.30) Q, 2, 4 (3 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.20, 1 fold, MP calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.70) 10 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.47, MP calls $0.47

River: ($1.64) 9 (2 players)
MP bets $1.24, Hero ???

Not at all sure what he could have here? Don't think he would play KJ this way which is the only hand that makes any sense to me? With the shove on the river, it makes me think he wants a fold?

nah this is a value shove. bet flop and turn more fold now

what's this guys opening range from MP, say roughly A9+ K9+ Q9+ J9+ 22-AA possibly some 9T as well. He checks the flop. What does this do to his range, I think you can remove all overpairs KK AA he's more likely to bet these especially in a 3way pot and sets 22 44 i'd expect him to bet those more often than not 3way. Depending on how he plays his strong second pair hands he could bet or check those. I'd keep them in 88-JJ. Weaker Q's Q9 QT QJ id say he'd bet the flop with those but c/c is possible. Don't think he'd c/c with KJ on such a dry board oop.

So his range is now 88-JJ Q9 QT QJ. Value betting the turn is correct. When villain shoves the river his range is now TT 99 QT Q9 and maybe JJ the odd time as a bluff.

stove this and you get: it wont let me copy can anyone help with this? anyway it gives you 25% equity exactly against this range, you can modify the ranges yourself as to suit the villain because you were at the table so you'll know iy he is capable of calling 2 streets with Tx then trying to buy it on the river adding more bluffs to his range and strengthening your equity.

Pot is 82bb villain shoves for 62bb

62/(62+144)=0.3 if you have more than 30% equity its +ev to call you have 25% so its a fold.

Originally Posted by kickass

nah this is a value shove. bet flop and turn more fold now

It might be much more helpful if you would explain the reasoning that led you to arrive at this conclusion. Just from what you posted, how is anyone to judge if you've thought the situation through or are trolling?

I like how you played it if you folded the river,I haven't done any range analysis but in my experience this is a strong hand unless you have a note on the villain that tells you he can bluff here.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a slowplayed set here or TT or 99 that got lucky because normally an aggro opponent will keep cbetting when he's bluffing instead of taking the line he has here.

As a general rule river aggression is less likely to be bluffy,there are plenty of exceptions but I think if you fold here every time you'll lose far less than if you call every time.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

stove this and you get: it wont let me copy can anyone help with this?

Ctrl+C should work

* pissy rant removed *

arj... please try not to complain at people for not writing an essay, it will likely promote negative responses.

Oh yeah, the hand... can we not 3bet this pre vs this villain? And when he ineviatbly 4bets us, assuming everyone else has folded, we 5bet shove?

Well played now fold quickly. He's got some bs nut hand; he's never going to exploit you in this situation.

What they all said. That's a value shove from the river. Given how the board ran out a bluff is suicide here, unless villain's a total retard.

About him not playing KJ this way, what you said interests me. Do we have enough reason to believe that? I mean have we really seen him take another line based on a similar situation? I am not saying this is KJ only, but when you said that it's the only hand that makes sense, it could still be possible couldn't it? Anyway KJ, sets, QT and Q9, they're all in villain's range and all could possibly play this way, imo.

Originally Posted by rpm

Ctrl+C should work

haha so simple thanks man.

This c/c business on the flop is a hand lesser than top pair but still with showdown value or a set most often.

Given your reads however I want to call....

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

This c/c business on the flop is a hand lesser than top pair but still with showdown value or a set most often.

Given your reads however I want to call....

I don't think villain ever has 2x or 4x and the turn and river cards make way too much sense for him to have us crushed.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

haha so simple thanks man.

no worries . i got caught up on that as well when i was new to the program

why are you calling preflop? i think it's good to do so, but i suspect you are doing it rather arbitrarily. Flop bet when checked to is good, even sizing, turn should be a little bigger. River is close and 30% so call if station fold otherwise neither a huge mistake (folding better i think, cos 30% might be optimistic, c-c, c-c, shove is a micro fish nut line a lot) - 99 and Q9 are more likely than KJ cos flop play

I just call because he is going to 4bet me when I 3bet him and I didn't fancy putting myself in that position with KQs. I fully believed I could get value out of him with TP only, so was happy enough to call and see a flop.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I just call because he is going to 4bet me when I 3bet him and I didn't fancy putting myself in that position with KQs. I fully believed I could get value out of him with TP only, so was happy enough to call and see a flop.

cool, 3b-fold with KQs seems bad here cos you don't want to call a 4b or 5b shove cos you don't want to which is fair enough.
fold here seems bad cos KQs, right? why?

also of note: did you consider whether utg would call if you called vs fold if you 3b. And the fact that you want to be playing pots ip vs the villain who limped utg?

nh by the way.

Originally Posted by daven

cool, 3b-fold with KQs seems bad here cos you don't want to call a 4b or 5b shove cos you don't want to which is fair enough.
fold here seems bad cos KQs, right? why?

also of note: did you consider whether utg would call if you called vs fold if you 3b. And the fact that you want to be playing pots ip vs the villain who limped utg?

nh by the way.

Folding seems bad because I have position with suited broadway and feel I can get a lot of value with this hand vs villains range.

Yeah, as I put it OP, he tended to fold after limping, so assumed he would fold but wasn't too unhappy if he didn't as I had position anyway.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Oh yeah, the hand... can we not 3bet this pre vs this villain? And when he ineviatbly 4bets us, assuming everyone else has folded, we 5bet shove?

wat?

smokin again, Ong?