[2NL] JJ Flop a set...optimal line?

Villain is 32/15/6 through 83 hands. Cbet was 0, 0/2. Was limping a lot usually, 24% of time, 12/51. Called a raise 25%, folded to raise 75%.

I also had a note that he was unable to fold JJ to 3 bets after an A high flop.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $1.61
UTG: $5.03
MP: $2.00
CO: $5.92
BTN: $1.69
Hero (SB): $2.40

Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has J J

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.12, fold, Hero calls $0.11, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.36, 3 players) 3 J K
Hero bets $0.30, fold, CO raises to $0.60, Hero ???

Usually I would 3bet in this situation, however, because I am OOP in the SB and it's quite a big raise, I decide to flat and re-eval on the flop. Are we happy to 3bet shove here or call and re-evaluate OTT? I feel he prob folds AK to a 3bet shove, unless he has the NFD ( AsKs ) and probably folds a FD as well to a 3bet shove.

Optimal line?

why are you donking?
not saying good or bad, but your reasoning maters.
Also, what hands do you put him on after the action to this point?

I donk because he is yet to cbet, I don't want to lose value and I also don't like giving free cards on a two-tone flop.

His range I think is pretty tight because of the huge pre flop raise. QQ+, AKo, AKs, maybe KsQs and KJ being the bottom of his range. This is obviously based on his min-raise.

Not to deter from davens questions cuz I really like them but the optimal line with sets at 2nl is bet bet and bet again imo.

Originally Posted by supa

Not to deter from davens questions cuz I really like them but the optimal line with sets at 2nl is bet bet and bet again imo.

Hmm, OK.....? So when he min raises? You're happy to get your stack in I assume?

Raising for value, playing for stacks

Unless I have a read that Villain folds if I 3-bet, but will bluff off his whole stack on his own if I tank c/c a couple of streets.

Your reasoning for leading is good.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Hmm, OK.....? So when he min raises? You're happy to get your stack in I assume?

Did he have KK? I'm sure you know getting it in here is +EV.

We crush everything except KK, and there's no indication that he's going to fold Kx hands to a shove. i.e. AK/KQ/KT

This.

I feel he prob folds AK to a 3bet shove

Does not tally with this.

I also had a note that he was unable to fold JJ to 3 bets after an A high flop.

Originally Posted by Hoopy

Your reasoning for leading is good.


Did he have KK? I'm sure you know getting it in here is +EV.

We crush everything except KK, and there's no indication that he's going to fold Kx hands to a shove. i.e. AK/KQ/KT

This.
Does not tally with this.

The 3 bets he called with JJ were all c/c. He has min raised me here so I feel he had a stronger hand than in that example.

I was more thinking about whether to just call his min raise and then shove after he leads out on turn or shove if he checks. Just wondered what would have been the best way to play it.

Second nuts on wet flop....

BET BET BET RAISE BET RAISE RE-RAISE RAISE RAISE RAISE RAISE BET BET RAISE BET RAISE BET BET RAISE RAISE

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

note, i like donking this flop

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I donk because he is yet to cbet, I don't want to lose value and I also don't like giving free cards on a two-tone flop.

sounds good, except inconsistent with below - he's c-betting all of this right? by the same reasoning he is raising when you donk.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

His range I think is pretty tight because of the huge pre flop raise. QQ+, AKo, AKs, maybe KsQs and KJ being the bottom of his range. This is obviously based on his min-raise.

3b as played
nh

Originally Posted by daven

note, i like donking this flop

sounds good, except inconsistent with below - he's c-betting all of this right? by the same reasoning he is raising when you donk.



3b as played
nh

OK, let's say I checked the flop, assuming he would c-bet, and he does. Does a c/r not look way too strong on this board allowing him to get away from hands that he otherwise might not have if I let him raise my donk and then 3bet?

Above i was simply pointing out that a cbet is in fact highly likely, so you don't need to be scared that he won't cbet. It definitely doesn't mean that checking is optimal, it instead lets you think ok, am i better donking or check-raising.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

OK, let's say I checked the flop, assuming he would c-bet, and he does. Does a c/r not look way too strong on this board allowing him to get away from hands that he otherwise might not have if I let him raise my donk and then 3bet?

i like your reasoning here. Mostly cos if you check-raise he's going to be calling not 3betting and there are loads of turn cards that may terrify either of you.
that's why:

Originally Posted by daven

note, i like donking this flop

nice thread

If anyone is interested in what happened:

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $1.61
UTG: $5.03
MP: $2.00
CO: $5.92
BTN: $1.69
Hero (SB): $2.40

Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has J J

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.12, fold, Hero calls $0.11, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.36, 3 players) 3 J K
Hero bets $0.30, fold, CO raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $2.28 and is all-in, CO calls $1.68

Turn: ($4.92, 2 players) 2

River: ($4.92, 2 players) 8

Hero shows J J (Three of a Kind, Jacks) (Pre 54%, Flop 69%, Turn 20%)
CO shows K A (Flush, Ace High) (Pre 46%, Flop 31%, Turn 80%)
CO wins $4.75

I was just running similar odds the other day.
I had TP + NFD w/ A 4 on the flop (A T 9) 3-handed.
Bet and a raise to me, I jammed it, got 2 callers
one had T 9, the other Q J
Waaahhh... wahhhhh.... I got coooooollered!!!

The result I found was that when you have TP + NFD, the worst you can possibly be is about 50/50.
Jam that puppy and love it whether they call or not.

EDIT... WTF?!? I need to re-run those numbers... WTF?

you got it in as 70% favourite, nh
i think you played it great.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

The result I found was that when you have TP + NFD, the worst you can possibly be is about 50/50.

go back to pokerstove and run some more simulations bro
here's one to start with
AdTd vs TsTh on Tc7d2d