[10NL] Defending against cbets

Villain is fairly loose and aggro in small pots, 35/22/58 (steal)/86 (cbet) but I haven't seen him getting to showdown with anything too silly.

I would 3bet this often preflop, but called here intending to c/r when I hit a strong hand/strong draw as well as a lot of the time when I miss (especially with BD draws on good flops) and sometimes with total air on very dry flops. His continuing range looks pretty narrow here.

I think he will be continuing around 20% if I assume he started with any 2 half decent cards and will continue with sets, 2pairs, overpairs, OESD or FDs, or TPs JT+. In reality, I think he may even fold something as weak as JT.

Assuming c/r is ok, are we barrelling anything? I can't seem to find any decent barrel cards with FE. Even diamonds. (Even 10). The equity when called just about makes up for it if he won't shove low overpairs/strong draws, but it isn't great.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, €0.10 BB (4 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
Button (€9)
SB (€10.72)
Hero (BB) (€18.24)
UTG (€13.91)
Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
1 fold, Button bets €0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls €0.20
Flop: (€0.65) , , (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets €0.40, Hero raises €1.40 (or more?)

Originally Posted by Pelion

I think he will be continuing around 20%
[...]
Hero raises €1.40 (or more?)

Raising the minimum amount to get the desired result is your goal in a bluff.

Pure bluff:
0.8*1.05 - 0.2*1.40 = 0.56
Your raise amount is +EV if you always lose when called. The amount you raise is in the minus term of the EV calc, so the bigger the raise, the smaller the EV.

The tricky thing is that the size of the raise can directly effect the % of hands Villain calls with. Generally, smaller raises get called more often and bigger raise get called less often, so there is a sweet spot in bet sizing that can be elusive.

In your example, if Villain continues with 20% to any raise sizing, then a min-raise is optimal.

0.8*1.05 - 0.2*0.40 = 0.83

Again, this is simplified to assume you have 0 equity when called.

What if a min-raise makes Villain call with 30% of his range?

0.7*1.05 - 0.3*0.40 = 0.61

That's still more EV than your sizing of 1.4, but lol just a hypothetical.

How about another one?

What if a raise to 2.00 makes Villain only continue with 10% of his range?

0.9*1.05 - 0.1*2.00 = 0.75

So there's a lot going on there and Villain's tendencies need to be at least somewhat known to make an educated guess about the "best" sizing.

1.20 usually folds worse than a jack, 1.40 is called by a jack+ pretty much always. I fire again on a spade, a diamond, a {T, K ,Q} and feel pretty good about it. Defo a good flop to c/r in this spot.

I doubt you fold any J because you have so many flush draws (and other bluffs) in your raising range.

Originally Posted by daviddem

I doubt you fold any J because you have so many flush draws (and other bluffs) in your raising range.

I wouldn't be surprised to get one call from an 8 here but we can still c/r profitably.

Good board to c/r bluff as this misses most of his btn range, hits your calling range and you're right in that he'll only continue with 20-25% of his holdings (but I doubt we can get him off most of these unless we're willing to barrell away and get it in). $1.20 will most likely be fine.

Would be interested to know his turn barrel % though as I'd be tempted by the riskier flop chk/call and turn c/r line against this villain, as long as I was happy he's not the sort of bad lag that can't fold (which it seems we are happy about).

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

EV Calc

Yeah I get that. The question is, how elastic are calling ranges to raise size on flops like this? Can we get away with $1.20 or is he likely to peel often with mid pairs/bad draws?

This is the bit that really takes experience to answer, and I don't really know yet. Would a "standard" c/r be to $1.20 here? $1.40? more?

If we don't think we will fold even J9 to a $1.40 raise, then I think we would rather just raise to $1.20 and fold the mid pairs and lower. Do people agree?

The best way to approach the problem imo is to ask yourself how much you would value-c/r if you had a set, AA or AJ. In theory that's the amount you should also bluff so as to make your value raises indistinguishable from your bluffs.

Also your elasticity question depends a lot on the villain. Some will call any size with a FD or second pair, some won't.

Originally Posted by Pelion

This is the bit that really takes experience to answer, and I don't really know yet. Would a "standard" c/r be to $1.20 here? $1.40? more?

I don't know that there is a "standard" here. Once I've put Villain on a range and I have some idea of how he'll respond, I usually base my bet sizing on the odds I want to offer him.

My first thought was that your bet is way too small for a V-bet. I think less than 2.00 is pretty small for a raise in this spot. I mean, your bet of 1.40 is offering Villain less than 20% pot odds, so he doesn't need too much equity to make a profitable call... but if Villain isn't going to notice that, or you include enough value in your range to balance, then that point is moot.

^^ not true, it's a little more than a 2/3rd PSR, which is a pretty standard bet/raise size and it's offering 29% pot odds

(villain has to call 1 and the total pot after his call is 3.45)

A pot sized raise would be a raise to 1.85, offering 33.3% odds

First post after a restless night. Oops.

I've mixed in a balance of also donking hands like this (overs+bdfd, on a two tone flop).

You have lots of good turn cards you can bet (any spade (11), K/Q (6), diamond (11) - 28 cards, so 56% of the time)

The benefit is that your bluff has to work less often, due to the amount you're risking. It's also cheaper to rep the flush once that falls, but that card still has a lot of fold equity.

The negative is that you don't get villains bet, when he b/f.

Do you agree that given his cbet of 86%, he is probably cbetting 100% on this flop?

If yes, would you still sometimes donk here?

I can see leading vs someone who is more inclined to check back, but I think we lose value here.

I think you're better off calling flop and c/ring something with less showdown value. Example: Td7d

Originally Posted by Pelion

Do you agree that given his cbet of 86%, he is probably cbetting 100% on this flop?

If yes, would you still sometimes donk here?

I can see leading vs someone who is more inclined to check back, but I think we lose value here.

It's a risk vs reward trade-off i guess.

I donk to not bloat the pot and keep my ability to go three streets for a bluff here at a lower cost. C/R you obviously get the value of his bet but to go 3 streets you now have to risk your stack.

Also on a board like this where a lot of two pairs aren't possible, I think donking and barreling has a wider credible range of hands.