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When do I fold this?

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  1. #1
    quinlan20's Avatar
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    Default When do I fold this?

    PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A.
    UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls.

    Flop: (9.50 SB) Q, T, 8 (3 players)
    BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, UTG folds, Hero calls.

    Turn: (8.25 BB) 3 (2 players)
    BB bets, Hero calls.

    River: (10.25 BB) K (2 players)
    BB bets, Hero calls.

    Final Pot: 12.25 BB

    When do I fold this, when he 3-bet the flop? My read on BB was that he was a completely illogical idiot. My river call was basically me hitting the mouse button in anger!
  2. #2
    Might as well fold it preflop if you are going to fold HU just because someone 3-bet you.

    Seriously, though, you don't fold AA in limit without very good reason. You should at the very least call down with confidence on a board where both of opponents hole cards have to have hit to be ahead of you. Sure it would be correct to fold if you knew for sure opponent had a set or straight, but they have one pair and 2 pair hands often enough that folding is a big blunder here (especially when you have a read that your opponent is an idiot!!). You need a read that your opponent is very tight preflop, a couple other players in a raising war on the flop AND the turn, or a really really scary board to fold your rockets.
  3. #3
    Might as well fold it preflop if you are going to fold HU just because someone 3-bet you.

    Seriously, though, you don't fold AA in limit without very good reason. You should at the very least call down with confidence on a board where both of opponents hole cards have to have hit to be ahead of you. Sure it would be correct to fold if you knew for sure opponent had a set or straight, but they have one pair and 2 pair hands often enough that folding is a big blunder here (especially when you have a read that your opponent is an idiot!!). You need a read that your opponent is very tight preflop, a couple other players in a raising war on the flop AND the turn (sometimes you can tell on the flop), or a really really scary board to fold your rockets.
  4. #4
    quinlan20's Avatar
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    Thanks Xanadu. Maybe if I wasn't on a 25bb downswing at the time I'd of been a little bit more hopeful.
  5. #5
    Something to add because you may not realize it. AA has a lot of outs against 2pair. You are 28% to win on the flop if up against a single opponent with 2 pair. If you just call down here from the point of the 3-bet on, you make money in the long run because by the end of the hand your 2.5 BB only account for a little over 20% of the pot.

    here are the kinds of hands you may be against with your winning chances following:

    Straight: 4%
    set: 11%
    2 pair: 28%
    OESD or pair plus gutshot: 66%
    One pair, no other draw: 80%


    If each of these categories were equally likely you would have about a 38% chance of winning, while only having to put in 20% of the pot to call down!! You would have to be about 90% sure your opponent had 2pair or better for you to lose money here. Here is a lot of the value from AA. You are a huge favorite to stay ahead of the hands you are ahead of, and have a lot of outs against many of the hands you may be behind (2pair). It becomes almost impossible for you to fold a big pot when Heads up because you don't need to be ahead very often to make a profit.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by quinlan20
    Thanks Xanadu. Maybe if I wasn't on a 25bb downswing at the time I'd of been a little bit more hopeful.
    Hah, you're playing SHLHE right? 25bb aint a downswing, its nothing. Trust me, you'll wish 25bb was a downswing when you hit a real one. My personal best, 140bbs.

    Being overrolled=
  7. #7
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    Being overrolled=
  8. #8
    Given your read, cap the flop. You shouldn't be thinking about folding here.

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