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Consider his range of hands:
Likely (given a strong=weak read):
Bluff - Folds to shove
Jx/TT/99 - Usually folds to shove, sometimes calls me down. Raised to "see where he's at" to avoid putting in a lot of money bad. If he calls I have 2 outs.
Draws - Usually calls. 88 has good equity.
Pairs worse than 88 - LoL if he calls
Less Likely (we read him wrong):
Bottom 2: Fair amount of suck-out equity
Set - Usually have 2 outs
J4, J5 - Heavily discounted, see set.
AA/KK/QQ - Opps, see set.
Finally consider that if he folds to our shove we either have a table image of being crazy aggro or running good. Either way, it will keep our opponents in line and add value to lots of routine isolation and c-bet lines for the next couple hours.
$375 in the pot. Shove costs us ~$675 more. Figure we have ~25%ish equity against his weighted calling range (lots of draws.) If he folds 50% of the time we show a profit.
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