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I think the biggest problem with making this call is that even when you're right and he doesn't have QJxx or J7xx you're going to be chopping
This seems like a suicide bluff from an aware player after you've practically potted the flop+turn. However, if he's a thinker he understand how bad this board now looks for a set and certainly could be bluffing putting you on exactly that.
We're getting 2.7:1 so we need to be good 1/3.7 of the time or ~27% however, there is a chopping-dynamic we have to look at.
Let's assign some frequencies:
30% of the time he has a Ten-High straight
65% of the time he has us beat
5% of the time he's bluffing
(.30)(+139)+(.65)(-102)+(.05)(+$279)= -$11
So with those frequencies, which, mind you could be WAY off, we lose nearly $11 on every call.
Bluffing 10% of the time we get:
(.30)(+139)+(.60)(-102)+(.10)(+$279)= +$8.4
So if he's bluffing only 1 in 10 times and value-betting the same hand 3 in ten times it looks like a call. This is a spot where unless you're in it a lot you never going to be totally sure what the right play is. I think if you ever want to know what the correct play is here you'll need to call here. You're going to see the nuts a good amount, let's look at how bad the call could be:
20% Chop
80% Better-hand
(.2)(+139)+(.80)(-102)= -$53.8
So you lose $54 on average on every call in a worse-case scenario.
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