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Live NLHE Bottom Set 260BB Deep vs Nit
Effective stacks $1300, 8 handed, 3/5 NLHE
Villain has played extremely tight preflop, maybe playing 6 or 7 hands in 3 hours. I have seen him cbet when he does raise. He recently double barreled me with just under half pot bets on a Qs7d6hJs and folded to my turn raise. Villain is very stoic and quiet, I have an inkling he does not tilt, but it is hard to say for certain.
My image is TAG and I have not shown down any bluffs or anything crazy. I have been a bit card dead, so people may think I am tighter than I actually am.
Villain ($1700) opens from UTG+1 to $25. This is bigger than his late position raises which are usually to $15 if there are no limpers. 2 callers from mid positions and Hero ($1200) completes with 5h5c.
Flop ($97) Qc7d5d
Hero Checks, Villain bets $45, 2 Folds, Hero raises to $150, Villain calls
Turn ($397) As
Hero bets $260, Villain calls
River ($917) 9c
Hero with ~$900 behind...
At this point in my mind his range is really narrow. AQ, AdKd, AA, QQ (let me know if you disagree). The problem facing me is I think he folds AdKd to a shove (and maybe folds to turn bet) and maybe AQ as well. If I bet 1/2 pot I may get value from those hands but will have to call a shove. He has 10 combos I beat, let's say he folds those to a jam 50% (5 calling combos * 900 = $4,500), 6 combos of sets beat me and I lose my stack (6*-900= -$5,400). It almost seems like there is not a good play on the river.
What is your river line and should I have played any of the earlier streets differently?
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