The answer is pretty obvious. No reason not to just play A
K
Q
on the bottom and 82 off suit in the middle.
However, with my new breakdown, it’s more interesting to see why.
p1=/2
8
/A
K
Q
…
For sim sample size 3601: Mean: 1.50 [1.09, 1.90]; STDEV: 12.34
For sim sample size 3601: Foul: 13.6% ptsNoFoul: 3.3 gotoFL: 7.7% Scoop: 31.8% Scoop'd: 20.4% BothFoul: 1.9%
Time spent: 0:04:39:34.83
…
This move only goes to FL 8% of the time, but it also only fouls 14%, while scooping 32% of the time, and winning, on average +3.3 points when it doesn’t foul. Not an amazing spot, but solidly above-average move.
Now compare this to the second-best move, which aggressively goes for Fantasyland.
p1=K
Q
/A
2
/8
…
For sim sample size 801: Mean: -0.31 [-1.25, 0.63]; STDEV: 13.57
For sim sample size 801: Foul: 33.8% ptsNoFoul: 3.9 gotoFL: 21.2% Scoop: 22.0% Scoop'd: 35.3% BothFoul: 7.7%
Time spent: 0:00:59:10.37
…
I didn’t need to run it long to see the difference. You’re fouling 34% of the time, which is pretty high. For that price, you go to FL 21% of the time… which averages out to a slightly better hand when you make it. But you are not adequately compensated for doubling your foul rate.
I’m tracking a lot more numbers alongside, but only outputting a few at the end, so as not to confuse myself too much. Some of these stats are a lot more clear, for later in the hand spots. Where you’re more directly trading off Fantasyland, scooping, getting scooped, and foul risk.
Hope this is interesting.