Hey boys...long time no time...

Here is a hand I recently played that I thought was interesting....given the stakes. Here is the struggle: At 25c/50c, and below, you need to really be pounding the value. I mean POUNDING. You can't bet thin enough down here! There are hidden spots to bet, raise, and check raise. And no one else does it. I see so much missed value down here it almost tilts me. And, I see the dumbest bluffs and call downs known to mankind. Just today I relentlessly fired AQ on a A36dd board and, because I was facing a rather maniacal player, I check-raised the blank river card. I felt I had a smaller ace trapped and unable to resist when the diamond draw whiffed. Of course, he called my check/raise. With what, you ask? 45o!!! I can understand the bluff on the end, but WHO calls with 45o there? Maybe someone just curious to see what I do that with, but also someone so mind-numbingly stupid they won't have money in their account for long. But, I digress.

$0.25/$0.50 Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

by the way, this is a full ring table that is temporarily running short handed. these are a gold mine if you play aggressively because you can just run the full ring nits over. so, i tend to sit on these whenever i get the chance.

how bout this check behind? villain is a bit of a station by stats, but i havent paid any attention. my real fish here is the guy to his right, and that is who my focus has been on since the table is running so short. however, my hand improves on the river, but it still only catches bluffs. in reality, what calls my bet?...and i dont want a c/r in the face from a station.

Stacks:
Hero ($14.90)
UTG+1 ($5.60)
CO ($5.20)
BTN ($20.15)
SB ($7.70)
BB ($4.50)
Pre-Flop: (1.4 SB, 6 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls
Flop: (6.0 SB, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls
Turn: (4.0 BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls
River: (6.0 BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks


Comments? Which is better given how thinly you need to pound this level for value?

Hey Chopper, good to see you are still around.

If he's a station, he's going to call with many worse hands than top 2 pair here. I can easily see JT/KT/KJ, Ax calling down here. If he check raises I could find a fold since he's passive and is probably never check-raising for value with like KJ or A5 on that board. A bluff is very unlikely, as he would have lead out the river.

The correct play here is b/f, because if he check-raises this river, it ain't no bluff.

If you can't bring yourself to b/f, then I think either option is equally bad-- b/c is a donation, and c/c misses value.

Any way we can mathematically figure out the most EV play? Not that I dont believe you guys, i just want to know how to figure this stuff out for the future.....and i wonder how close the two lines are.

I will try and play with some ranges, and what my guess is as to what they would do a little later when I have time to think about this.....(cooking dinner at the moment). Burgers off the grill, baby.

I don't think we really need math if we know he's a station who has done nothing but check-call down so far. He could well have gotten to the river with lesser hands, such as Ax, KJ, JT, often containing one club.

FWIW if we're bet into on the river here, I probably puke-call. But given he checked to us, easy value bet.

I just played a similar hand, though I think vbetting the river here is a little more risky, given my read isn't good on this guy (30/0/0 steal, 0AF over 10 hands), and I think he could well have me beat with a passively played AQ/Ad xd. I still think it's a must-bet (and fold if raised) situation.


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
Limit Holdem $1(BB) Merge
SB ($50.26)
BB ($30.96)
UTG ($12.50)
UTG+1 ($36.03)
CO ($66.53)
Hero ($71.50)

Dealt to Hero A T

fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, fold, Hero calls $2, fold, BB calls $1

FLOP ($6.50) A K T

BB checks, UTG+1 bets $1, Hero raises to $2, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $1

TURN ($10.50) A K T 5

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2, UTG+1 calls $2

RIVER ($14.50) A K T 5 Q

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2

villain did open raise, but i don't find it as risky because of the runner runner. I heavily discount a flush here. When one hits the turn, and the straight lands on the river, I see lots of solo flush draws chasing one more bet only to hit the inconspicuous straight on the river. But, I see your point.

I am still going to work the math because I haven't tried this in a long time and I think it's close, but have no idea if it really is. So, here we go....

I am assuming villain in my hand is running 50/8/.6, but have no real idea....only that he was loose passive and tended to go to showdown when I glanced at his stats during the hand after SB folded out. Also, being in the BB, I will widen him out to start at 60% vpip, but could argue even more crap like 74s or 94s that doesn't show up in PStove.

After my flop bet, I assume he drops very little. Any clubs come, any pair comes, and I can't see him folding a pp. I don't think he raises a set...yet, or two pair....given his AF metrics. And, most passives wait for the turn to c/r 2pr+ anyway. So, I have his range at: QQ-22,AQs-A2s,KcQc,KcJc,KTs,Kc9c,Kc8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,K5s,Kc4c,Kc3 c,Kc2c,QcJc,QTs,Qc9c,Qc8c,Qc7c,Qc6c,Q5s,Qc4c,Qc3c, Qc2c,JTs,Jc9c,Jc8c,Jc7c,Jc6c,J5s,Jc4c,Jc3c,Jc2c,T3 s+,9c8c,9c7c,9c6c,95s,8c7c,8c6c,85s,7c6c,75s,7c4c, 65s,6c4c,54s,AQo-A2o,K8o+,K5o,Q9o+,Q5o,J9o+,T7o+. Obviously, I have this range crushed.

On the turn, I see a lot c/r'ing me. Yes, a lot of the bigger stuff is afraid to since the flush card hit, but I think we can rule some stuff out. I fold out some stuff like J5cc and AJ and TJ and sets because I think all of these holdings c/r me. And, I fold off pure crap now like K8o, etc. I can see alot of other stuff sticking around, especially hands like Q9o or even K9 with a club. Surprisingly to me, I still have this range crushed with the flush hitting because we know that any pair isn't going to fold and that brings along all the AX, TX, 5X combos of off-suited hands that took a flop. I just didn't think it would be that wide a margin.....82/18 fave.

River sucks for me. I am still way ahead, but this is where I think the hand gets most interesting. I drop to a 66/33 fave over the range that c/c'd a turn bet. It looks like a b/f scenario, but I just want to know what happens when I bet and get folds, bet and get raised, and bet and get called vs. checking behind.

If I check behind, I risk no raise and just either take the pot or save a BB. We are ahead of his range 66% to 33%. The pot is 6 BBs. We win 6 BBs 66% of the time for a net gain of 4 BBs. We lose 2.5 BBs 33% of the time, net loss of 2.5 X .33 = -.83 BBs. 4 BBs - .83 BBs = 3.17 BBs to the positive. Now, let's weigh that against b/f....

If I bet, I win when called by: Ahi pairs, 2pr, sets and some stupid shit...~170 combos
If I bet, I lose when called/raised by: Q's (including QQ), non-nut flushes (I was forgetting how many combos are affected by the A, J, and T of clubs being on board....significantly cuts flush combos)...~84 combos
If I bet, I fold off some weak pairs... ~84 combos

Taking all that into consideration, we have 338 total combos of hands in his range. 84 of which we lose to, which makes up 25% of the time. We invest a total of 3.5 BB's into the pot, multiply by 25% and we have a negative EV of -.87 BBs. 50% of the time we will win 7 BBs when called...EV +3.5. And, 25% of the time we will fold weak stuff off, and win 6BBs....EV +1.5. Combine those EVs and we have 3.5 + 1.5 - .87 = 4.13 BBs positive expectation on b/f.

Clearly, b/f was better, and it wasn't even close, if I did my math correctly....which I probably didn't.

tbh I don't do too much math like that hardly ever. I just think there's definitely enough Ax's and worse 2 pairs in his range to make checking behind miss value. I think we can heavily discount any two club hand. So all we are really worried about is if he is on a hand like QJ/QT/Qc Xo, which is a very small part of his range.

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

tbh I don't do too much math like that hardly ever. I just think there's definitely enough Ax's and worse 2 pairs in his range to make checking behind miss value. I think we can heavily discount any two club hand. So all we are really worried about is if he is on a hand like QJ/QT/Qc Xo, which is a very small part of his range.

me either. but, it was fun (and completely nerve-wracking) to give it a shot. i haven't attempted calculations like that in two years. i felt it was close, in the heat of moment, because i felt like only a few hands would call vs a bunch that had me beat now. so, i didnt want to get the c/r from a big hand or the Q....again, i see the flush regularly pass the turn when it hits to c/r the river and cost itself a bet or two....as a slowplay. so, i give more credit to flushes than you will. i felt there were a ton of hands that would beat me and not raise, and didnt account for the AX hands that are never folding from a stationy player. i figured AX wont pay off, when in reality it will from this player almost all the time. oversight on my part. but, i thought the EV would be a lot closer than it came out.

oh well, live and learn.....again.

Agreed, there are some players who will slowplay a flopped or turned flush and check-raise on the river. I see them once in a while, but I'd say 80% of the players I have played against will check-raise the turn rather than trying for one on the river.

Against a tricky/tougher opponent who will only call that river with 2pr+ and will sometimes check-raise as a bluff, a check behind might not be bad.

He can't call if we don't bet. Don't deny him the chance to do what he does best. That's just plain cruel.

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

He can't call if we don't bet. Don't deny him the chance to do what he does best. That's just plain cruel.

lol. good to see you, dog.

Good to see your still around Chopper.

Sent you a pm.

A similar hand to the OP, except the villains are totally different. First guy is semi Loose/aggro, running 37/13/22ATS/10 3bet 4.3AF. Cold caller is a real Maniac who is running about 85/75. His call means he has like a top 90-75% hand lol.

On the river he could easily be raising me with other 2 pair hands, figuring me for like A8 or K9. I had been playing very loose against the maniac.

Hold'Em Manager Poker Tracking and Analysis Software
Limit Holdem $1(BB) Merge Game#26680549565

Chaostan ($85.50)
cinnamonman11 ($66.36)
labob01 ($52.03)
kyndlyon ($69.55)
Orangerie ($75.19)
cloudy35919 ($35.37)
mnfatts ($18)
ciorex ($34.90)

Chaostan posts (SB) $0.50
cinnamonman11 posts (BB) $1

Dealt to cinnamonman11 A K
fold, fold,
Orangerie raises to $2
cloudy35919 raises to $3
fold, fold, fold,
cinnamonman11 calls $2
Orangerie calls $1
FLOP ($9.50) A K 7
cinnamonman11 checks
Orangerie bets $1
cloudy35919 calls $1
cinnamonman11 raises to $2
Orangerie calls $1
cloudy35919 calls $1
TURN ($15.50) A K 7 J
cinnamonman11 bets $2
Orangerie calls $2
cloudy35919 folds
RIVER ($19.50) A K 7 J T
cinnamonman11 bets $2
Orangerie raises to $4
cinnamonman11 calls $2
cinnamonman11 shows Ah Ks
(Pre 73%, Flop 93.4%, Turn 90.9%)

Orangerie shows Tc As
(Pre 27%, Flop 6.6%, Turn 9.1%)

cinnamonman11 wins $26

probably puke/call the river thinking he chased his Q. however, i wonder why you didnt cap that preflop vs these villains? you also were oop. you have to bet here and obviously call a raise from a super aggro.

Originally Posted by Chopper

probably puke/call the river thinking he chased his Q. however, i wonder why you didnt cap that preflop vs these villains? you also were oop. you have to bet here and obviously call a raise from a super aggro.

I just now noticed I wrote cold caller rather than 3bettor. The first raisor was loose/aggro, the 3bettor was the maniac.

This hand was a while ago now, but I think my line of thinking was that I wanted to encourage more action from these two. I didn't want to cold 4bet preflop and have them shut down if they whiff the board. I probably could have check raised any board to try to isolate the maniac if I keep the pot that little bit smaller.