Werewolf: To The Edge

That's funny Daven because I think getting the wolf is more important, too. You know who doesn't? SDM. He wants to deal with Wuf tomorrow. Which makes sense if he's the wolf because if Wuf dies and flips seer, then it's GG tomorrow.

Originally Posted by baudib

Random brainstorm: Guys, do you think a mass outing at this point will do any good? It will for sure help clarify matters. Like if 2 people claim to be vig we'd be pretty sure we can narrow it down to 2 liars among 4. Or if 5 people claim to be vanilla.

two players won't claim vig. Nobody left is bad enough to fakeclaim vig with this many players left.
we already know that there will be one vig claim and the rest will claim vanilla. And all we know then is what we know now. That one of those vanilla claims is false.

Vig outing today would be absolutely terrible. If we mislynch today then the vig is still hidden and able to out in late-late game if still around. A wolf can't counterclaim vs a vig out.

Originally Posted by daven

two players won't claim vig. Nobody left is bad enough to fakeclaim vig with this many players left.
we already know that there will be one vig claim and the rest will claim vanilla. And all we know then is what we know now. That one of those vanilla claims is false.

Vig outing today would be absolutely terrible. If we mislynch today then the vig is still hidden and able to out in late-late game if still around. A wolf can't counterclaim vs a vig out.

OK makes sense. Just an idea.

Originally Posted by baudib

That's funny Daven because I think getting the wolf is more important, too. You know who doesn't? SDM. He wants to deal with Wuf tomorrow. Which makes sense if he's the wolf because if Wuf dies and flips seer, then it's GG tomorrow.

identifying/hunting the wolf is the important thing, then lynching them. If we mislynch then there is benefit in the vig firing tonight trying to hit the turncoat who has become a wolf. If he hits then we 100% win when we lynch the vig fake-claimer tomorrow. If he misses then we auto-lynch the fake-claimer and we're in the same position we would have been.

if we mislynch then there is definitely some merit to the idea of not shooting the fake-claiming seer overnight.

i typed vig fake-claimer above, i meant seer fake-claimer obviously.

Originally Posted by daven

I struggle to believe that wuf would look up eric on night two. He's all about glory, he'd be hunting wolves and eric did not look like a wolf on night 2.

this is important...
sdm can definitely play this way as seer, that's kinda why people view him as a liability-villager.
i'm not sure that wuf would play as he has if he was seer. Is his play more consistent with being a wolf or being the seer?

fuck, if we mislynch sdm and he flips seer then the vig should definitely shoot sdm's nominee.

Lynch wuf

Guys, I'm not the Turncoat. I really don't think anyone, even a noob, would play the way Eric did as turncoat, and I certainly wouldn't.

If you think there is merit in keeping the wolf/fake seer alive, then don't lynch SDM.

I think Keith and Big Red are the most likely turncoats. I'm really leaning toward BigRed. Right now, I'm on Keith but I'll vote to lynch either. Lynch one, vig the other one. Does this work?

I nominated SDM but I rescinded.

Originally Posted by baudib

Guys, I'm not the Turncoat. I really don't think anyone, even a noob, would play the way Eric did as turncoat, and I certainly wouldn't.

If you think there is merit in keeping the wolf/fake seer alive, then don't lynch SDM.

I think Keith and Big Red are the most likely turncoats. I'm really leaning toward BigRed. Right now, I'm on Keith but I'll vote to lynch either. Lynch one, vig the other one. Does this work?

um, then we reach tomorrow with two claimed-seers still remaining.
Lynching a player who isn't one of sdm or wuf today is just terrible. We get it right, and we win. We mis-lynch, and we're still in pretty good shape.
plus one of those players who reads villager in the seer lookups is likely to be the vig. We definitely don't want to mis-lynch the vig...

you do see that there are only two lynch options today, right?

Guys, if I get vigged or eaten tonight, it's been real. Great game! I'd give MVP to Ong! I suppose everything will be automatic if we mislynch and I die, and we win 100%

But I think I'll survive for more funness tomorrow!

Originally Posted by daven

um, then we reach tomorrow with two claimed-seers still remaining.
Lynching a player who isn't one of sdm or wuf today is just terrible. We get it right, and we win. We mis-lynch, and we're still in pretty good shape.
plus one of those players who reads villager in the seer lookups is likely to be the vig. We definitely don't want to mis-lynch the vig...

you do see that there are only two lynch options today, right?

Sorry, I'm confused. I thought you said there was value in keeping the fake-seer alive. Long night of poker and I didn't sleep much. I'll stop now.

Originally Posted by baudib

If you think there is merit in keeping the wolf/fake seer alive, then don't lynch SDM.

seems that you are trying to muddy the waters. based on a mislynch situation: If you're vig then obviously the vig can't shoot you overnight and you're safe. If you're vanilla then even if the vig does shoot you then the village can still definitely win. Something a lot of players don't understand is that it's a team game, see the game where i subtly framed myself as seer so the wolves would gat me so the seer would survive for longer? that was a play that i made as a vanilla villager so that my team would have an increased chance of winning...

ok - so we 100% lynch one of wuf or sdm today
you can see why this is the only smart play, right?

if we mislynch... then overnight there is merit in the vig shooting a player other than the remaining fake-seer. As i outlined above.

Originally Posted by baudib

Sorry, I'm confused. I thought you said there was value in keeping the fake-seer alive.

there is, but only if we mislynch today.
If we mislynch then we have an obvious wolf. There is merit in the vig not shooting the obvious wolf, and instead letting the village lynch the obvious wolf.

get your vote off keith and onto one of sdm and wuf. Choose the one you think is the wolf. Both look suspicious.

Daven, I was half-hoping Keith would come in and say something when I bolded him. I have little hope of BigRed doing so. Those are my turncoat candidates. Of course I see what you're saying. Your arguments are great but I still think Wuf is more believable. SDM's lacking a ton of seer cred in my book.

Rescind, lynch SDM

Daven for MVP

It took me a minute but I get it now. Have to assume TC converts tonight. So we either kill wolf and it's GG or have obvious LDFO wolf tomorrow. But then we're left with problem of TC being hidden. Duh. That's why we can't choose to lynch and vig both SDM and Wuf.

Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

Alright. Here goes.


I am the seer. It's become obvious by the chatter that I would either be lynched or eaten tonight because I'm not playing my standard game.


I have 3 living scans. The confirmed villagers are:


bigred
hoopy
keith


Plus myself as the seer makes 4 confirmed out of 7 villagers. The remaining wolf is one of


wufwugy
Eric/baudib
daven

.

ok, put yourself in wuf's shoes if he's wolf at this stage. He knows that in the absence of a counterclaim then the village is going to lynch one of wuf/baudib/me. The night noms make it unlikely that baudib is the wolf. That means he's going to be in a race with me, and he knows i'm a villager and that i even look like a villager.

five hours later wuf counterclaims. All he needs to do is identify any three players, the first two as lookups and the third as sdm=wolf.

time to read through sdm and wuf, but with the knowledge of the order of their lookups and the knowledge that they claim to have held at various points in the game.

Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

Night 1 I scanned hoopy.
Night 2 I scanned bigred.
Night 3 I scanned keith.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Night 1 was Bugrud, Night 2 was Eric, Night 3 was SDM. Bugrud and Eric (Uruc?) flipped villager obv and SDM flipped wolf.

reference.

wuf, if you're in fact the seer then you've done the best possible job you could have with your outing etc to make yourself look like a wolf. woat-seer etc.

It seems to me more likely that you're a wolf, and the reason you didn't want to fake-out as seer was that you had no idea who the real seer was, nor their lookups. You were probably sitting and gambling on the fact that the seer was likely to have only one or two living lookups. You weren't in danger of being lynched or shot on that game day, so there was no incentive to fake out.

Yeah, if you were the real seer you would have outed first, especially with three living lookups. As a wolf you would sit back and wait, but then SDM outing forced your hand.

post 417

Originally Posted by wufwugy

LOL he's lying. I've been waiting for a fakeseer to out since I'm the realseer. I looked up SDM last night and he's the wolf. I was hamming it up about being all sad because that's hilarious

lynch stilldeadzombie

teh wuffles gets teh emvizzlepizzle fo shizzy

post 432

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Why isn't SDM dead yet?

I used the same strategy as last time I was a wolf: lookup the lowest content players, because most of the time they're just villagers who don't get nommed but can get mislynched, and the rest of the time they're wolves playing it quiet. Night 1 was Bugrud, Night 2 was Eric, Night 3 was SDM. Bugrud and Eric (Uruc?) flipped villager obv and SDM flipped wolf. I was letting it roll a little today to have fun, but realized it could get horrible if I somehow got lynched while AFK. That shit has happened at least twice.

According to Rilla, the turncoat hasn't turned yet, so the game is over.

forgot to add, see bolds added to the quotes above.
Were you 'waiting for a fakeseer to out' - even though this was unlikely to happen, or were you 'letting it roll a little today to have fun' - even though this put the village at risk?

Do Wuf's posts from the start of the day at post 308 through until sdm's seer claim at post 417 read more like the posts of a seer who knows the game is won for the village or like a wolf who is trying to win?

post 326 from wuf
mashing your keyboard to out huh wuf?

Originally Posted by wufwugy

I wax philosophical when I'm wrong; I hate my stupid brain when I'm really wrong

I listed off all the ways Ong was a baddy. He had to be a baddy. How does somebody do so many baddy things and end up not being a baddy? I think my new rule will be that if a player does more than 3 baddy things, he's just a villager who doesn't bother making sure he's not doing baddy things. If he does 3 or below baddy things, then he could be a wolf because they try to act more like villagers than the villagers themselves

Does this sound smart to you? Probably not, it's probably just as stupid as every other idea I use to try to find baddies. I want to soulpwn the wolves. If I do that and they end up not being wolves, then wtf am I even doing?

Besides, the game is a 1000% up to the specials now. A seer who survives this late means the village has it locked down. Two specials and three potential lookups with 7 players left is a ratio that means the wolves only win like 5% of the time. I guess Ong was right. I thought the massclaim was premature with 9 players though, and figured he should have thought that too. But if I'm the seer with only 7 players left, I'm mashing my keyboard to out

post 327 from baudib, but now you think he is the seer after all?
you look a lot like the turncoat...

Originally Posted by baudib

Wuf, I have to say I don't really like your answer here.

I'm pretty close to 100% that you're not seer (or you'd be WOAT seer, and I don't think you'd be that) or vig. That means you must be vanilla, TC or wolf.



This seems sort of lazy, which I don't think you are. Seems like it could serve as attempt to get the seer to prematurely out. If you wanted seer to out as vanilla villager I think you'd make a better case for it.

352 daven– lynch hoopy
357 baudib – lynch sdm
360 baudib rescind
364 baudib – lynch wuf
399 baudib – lynch sdm

411 - SDM seerclaim
417 - wuf seerclaim

417 wuf – lynch sdm
430 keith – lynch sdm
441 sdm – lynch wuf
461 baudi – rescind sdm
464 daven – lynch wuf
466 daven – rescind


469 hoopy vote count is consistent with above
SDM - 2 (wuf, keith)
wuf - 1 (SDM)


504 baudib – lynch keith
532 daven – lynch wuf
541 baudib – lynch sdm


current count is:


SDM – 3 (wuf, keith, baudib)
Wuf – 2 (SDM, daven)

Good analysis daven. wuf would go for the glory. Why would he have scanned Eric? Why would he have scanned bigred?


Most importantly, why would wufwugy wait to say he found a wolf when it can finish the game instantly? Imagine you are the seer on day 4. You find the last wolf from the previous night's scan. Why would you do anything other say that you've found the wolf? What could you possibly gain as a seer by delaying when you've found the last wolf in this situation? You only risk getting snap lynched by the village or watching idly while a villager gets snap lynched and the wolf eats you overnight. You get no additional information from extra scans after finding the last wolf. Everyone else will come up villager because the turncoat is hidden from scanning.

just got in from working all day ...and wtf ...how is sdm not dead???

SDM claims that he said to lynch his lookups so that the wolves wouldn't nom him. This is SDM the biggest liability to the village that has ever played this game and i'm pretty sure he has never been eaten by wolves (ok , i'm may be wrong on that) but seriously why would the wolves ever eat SDM? even if they knew he was the seer he's bad enough to send in a lookup of someone that's already dead, or not playing.

Look at how the day started.

I start the day by making a statement about whether a massclaim makes sense.

Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

Before I waste too much time doing the math to see if a massclaim can possibly make sense, I have a question for the almighty rilla:

Do the wolves get a nom on the night that the turncoat converts but the last remaining pre-conversion wolf gets shot? Since the vig acts before the wolves, the wolf that sent in the kill request will be dead. I need to know if the turncoat doesn't perform a kill because he was busy transforming or if the kill happens anyway.

I clearly signalled my intentions. What does wuf start the day by saying?

Originally Posted by wufwugy

God I suck

Here is the guy that pushed Ong to get lynched, but then received a PM from rilla saying he found the last wolf. That's his reaction. Is "God I suck" the reaction of someone who just received a PM from rilla saying that the last wolf was found after someone else was mislynched because of him from the night before?

If wufwugy were the seer, what he would have said is "Guys, I know I fucked up with the Ong lynch yesterday. But good news, I'm the seer and I found the last wolf! It's SDM! Game over guys."

Originally Posted by Keith

just got in from working all day ...and wtf ...how is sdm not dead???

SDM claims that he said to lynch his lookups so that the wolves wouldn't nom him. This is SDM the biggest liability to the village that has ever played this game and i'm pretty sure he has never been eaten by wolves (ok , i'm may be wrong on that) but seriously why would the wolves ever eat SDM? even if they knew he was the seer he's bad enough to send in a lookup of someone that's already dead, or not playing.

Send in a lookup of someone that's not playing? I hope you realize that wufwugy is laughing his ass off at you right now.

Read the thread and give me your thoughts. Give a cogent argument as to why you think that wufwugy is telling the truth that isn't based on "SDM should be dead regardless of his role, villager or wolf".

Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

I should correct this: There is simply no universe, no situation, no justification for a wolf to fake out as a seer like I did in this game. It's a horrible play all around.

Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

wow, I can't even get the correction right. Replace "like I did" with "in my situation" in the above post.

what i find funny is that you issued the correction changing "like i did" to "in my situation" but you didn't change the original fact that you are saying that you fake outed and not just outed.

Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

I should correct this: There is simply no universe, no situation, no justification for a wolf to fake out as a seer like I did in this game. It's a horrible play all around.

Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

wow, I can't even get the correction right. Replace "like I did" with "in my situation" in the above post.

what i find funny is that you issued the correction changing "like i did" to "in my situation" but you didn't change the original fact that you are saying that you fake outed and not just outed.

I know wufwugy is having a heck of a good time with this. I am starting to think I did this on purpose. Check out this post in the previous game's wrap up thread that I made:

Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

I agree I probably fake out too much. This could happen in a future game.

day 1. village says oh hai let's lynch SDM. SDM says "I'm the seer!". Village lols and says "no you're not! YOU DIE NOW!". Then the wufmod comes in.

SDM was the seer. lol

The Living

bid
ong
bigred
gabe
warpe
donkbee
keith
jv
jyms
rong
gizmo
gator
daven
hoopy
rilla
tlr
luco

The Dead

sdm - seer

The Village

10 villagers
1 every night angel who can't target the same player on subsequent nights
1 even night vig that can't save bullets and starts firing on Night 2
4 wolves

and nobody could blame the village.

Keith, PoV slip from wuf on day 1:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Talk to me about arithmetics again wuf.

Seriously though, this could be a pov slip. Wuf is looking for someone who knows who "wolves" are? There's only two wolves, so one wolf only knows the identity of one more. Wolf, not wolves. Singular, not plural.

idk, this doesn't sit right with me. He's shown beyond any doubt that he's totally aware we're looking for two wolves, but he's phrasing stuff that implies multiple wolves. It feels more like a careless slip from someone failing to think like a villager.

lynch wuf

Okay Keith. Which "POV slip" do you believe and why?

Let's make a deal Keith.

If I end up being the seer, you need to start a new post on this forum that titled "SDM is the greatest Werewolf player ever". Then you need to repeat that 100 times in the body of the post.

If I end up being a wolf, I will do the same thing, except replace the word "SDM" with "Keith".

Deal?

Out of game deals aren't allowed. I just wanted to post that because I thought it would be hilarious.

@ Keith:
please read wuf's post #326
quoted below, specifically look at the part in bold.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

I wax philosophical when I'm wrong; I hate my stupid brain when I'm really wrong

I listed off all the ways Ong was a baddy. He had to be a baddy. How does somebody do so many baddy things and end up not being a baddy? I think my new rule will be that if a player does more than 3 baddy things, he's just a villager who doesn't bother making sure he's not doing baddy things. If he does 3 or below baddy things, then he could be a wolf because they try to act more like villagers than the villagers themselves

Does this sound smart to you? Probably not, it's probably just as stupid as every other idea I use to try to find baddies. I want to soulpwn the wolves. If I do that and they end up not being wolves, then wtf am I even doing?

Besides, the game is a 1000% up to the specials now. A seer who survives this late means the village has it locked down. Two specials and three potential lookups with 7 players left is a ratio that means the wolves only win like 5% of the time. I guess Ong was right. I thought the massclaim was premature with 9 players though, and figured he should have thought that too. But if I'm the seer with only 7 players left, I'm mashing my keyboard to out

SDM also ignores the fact that there is a vig in this game who is supposed to shoot every night.like i said before wolves were really unlikely to eat sdm but the vig is really likely to target sdm just to get rid of him. What value is there in him being the seer when he doesn't give hints to who he has cleared when his posts get analysed if he gets shot by the vig.

in fact, keith, read all of the posts since rilla opened up this game day.
Then decide who you think is the last wolf.
SDM plays erratically enough that he could be the seer here, wuf looks entirely like a wolf today rather than a seer who has won the game for us

wow. daven, you busted wuf cold. Even if we lose this game, I nominate you villager MVP.

I am going to put that in giant letters, colors and bold if you don't mind, daven.

But if I'm the seer with only 7 players left, I'm mashing my keyboard to out

-wufwugy

Originally Posted by Keith

SDM also ignores the fact that there is a vig in this game who is supposed to shoot every night.like i said before wolves were really unlikely to eat sdm but the vig is really likely to target sdm just to get rid of him. What value is there in him being the seer when he doesn't give hints to who he has cleared when his posts get analysed if he gets shot by the vig.

huh? Since when does the vig fire every night while the seer is alive? Have you done the math for that?

Very nice daven, I think we lynch wuf and win this thing.

i think wuf and sdm have played wolf/seer role atrociously. I'm reluctantly swapping lynch wuf .

counterclaiming with SDM looked up last night makes no sense at all as seer wuf just makes his first post saying that he got the wolf last night.instead the #326 onwards posts re mass claims etc there is no need for the posts he did make as it ws irrelevent. his outing smacks of a quick response to sdm's claim.

theres also this action from day 1 to consider

Originally Posted by Keith

think your argument is wrong Ong. Think you should be using the fact that only the two wolves know who the non wolves are this early in the game. The quote you posted could be a subtle hint to the turncoat though that he knows who is a villager which only a wolf could know at this stage.
rescind sdm
lynch wuf

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I can see where you're coming from here keith.

The ong = not wolf comment can be a message to the turncoat. I don't think that alone is particularly damning, because rong is kinda right in that my comment, at least from a villager pov, could be a wolf hinting to the turncoat. But I know that's not the case. But considering there's other reasons to suspect wuf, it adds to the case for sure.

haha if wuf finally got wolf and got sniffed out straight away, that would make me laugh so hard.

Lynch Wufwugy. Game over!

Keith I missed that exchange. Daven tore it up but you and Ong did a really nice job early on.

Glad you didn't get SDM lynched like you wanted to though!

HAHAHAHHAA I FOOLED YOU ALL! GO WOLVES GO!


ARRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Originally Posted by daven

post 327 from baudib, but now you think he is the seer after all?
you look a lot like the turncoat...

Views change, Daven. I think you said that. I'm a noob and this is my first "day." Cut me some slack?

When I first nominated Wuf to be lynched, I even included a note saying, "Even if you're not the wolf, I want to kick you in the ass and get your head in the game." Or something like that. I bolded Keith earlier because I wanted to see how he would reacted. In retrospect, I agree lynching someone not SDM/Wuf would have been a terrible move. I didn't really think that was going to happen, though.

I AM NOT THE TURNCOAT.

I'd offer the same deal as SDM did above if I turn out to be the turncoat, but I'm pretty sure that's unethical. I have some new ideas on the turncoat though.

Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

HAHAHAHHAA I FOOLED YOU ALL! GO WOLVES GO!


ARRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

WAT

Rescind WTF

Does my last vote still count? Daven?

Your last vote still counts, but it's okay. I just wanted to give everyone a minor heart attack that was reading this thread.

Hey, I had to fake out as something. Good game.

Um...

I wasn't clear. I am the seer and I thought it would be funny to fake out as a wolf to end the game. It's over. You can relax now.

Since I'm not quite clear on the game mechanics, I'm going to refrain from saying anything for now.

It over baudib, SDM is just messing with you.

Been trying to tell you dorks the game is over. It has been over for a while. The out was an attempt to just get you guys to lynch me faster

Turncoat is woat role. He's not a wolf, he's not a villager, he has no meaningful power or meaningful targets. He can't do shit

The thing I was most intent on was punishing Ong for calling me turncoat. Ultimately he was right, but I was cognizant enough of why I posted what I did and hated his rationale, so I kinda just wanted to give him a hard time. Homey needs to know when you come at me, you best come correct. I made several POV slips this game, but those mainly came in my giant posts trying to gut Ong. He actually found a huge one, but didn't think too much of it

Lucky for SDM, I seriously checked out after Rong died (I thought he was the wolf. Got a million reasons why. Almost reached out to him even).

Good luck to the wolf. I have no idea who you are. My wolf hunting tactics are process-driven, I need to get them to engage me and react strangely and/or predictably. I couldn't do any of that this game, so all my wolf picks have been way off

This rendition of turncoat is basically the dumb kid in the corner, talking to himself as he plays checkers with his imaginary friend

Sorry I failed you guys. I tried. I thought I was developing a decent idea of what to do to help the wolves, but really there was next to nothing I could do. Other than lynch Ong. That was so great. I was fistpumping like a madman

Holy shit wat.

This game is exhausting. geezeeeee

You were acting pretty strange Wuf. I mean you fooled me with the fake out but I was trying to call attention to you while everyone else was intent on lynching Hoopy. Then I got caught up in SDM's uber-wolfines.

NOW WAT GUYS

I don't suppose I can convince anyone that Daven is the wolf or that SDM misclicked on his lookups, so I give up. I am the wolf.

I've been wracking my brain for days on how to win this and I couldn't find a way. I thought when Wuf fake outed there was a shot, because SDM looked wolfy as hell. Then I realized that I needed to kill off two people before SDM got lynched. So my plan was to try to get someone else lynched and then eat the vig and get SDM lynched the next day.

Before Wuf's claim, I was going to fake claim as the vig if we had a mass claim. More thoughts later. Daven terrified the shit out of me all game.

The lookup lists of both seer claims were fatal to me. I was like, WTF how could SDM have made those lookups and bink living villager on all of them? I thought Wuf did a good job and was laughing because I thought objectively that his claim made more sense than SDM's.

But I think he made a tiny error, he put me (Eric) on his lookup list. I think if he put a dead villager on there it'd pass inspection. I suspect that this is what led Daven down the path of discovery our B.S.

My strategy, having never played (I played 2 live game turbos, very different), with no partners to talk strat with, was to just play uber psycho-aggro villager noob. And convince everyone I was lock villager. I think I was doing a good job of that, I bet I was lock villager on a couple of people's lists. No one ever talked about lynching me.

These were the things I had to do: Find the seer, reach out to TC, kill the vig, make myself the most villagery of villager ever. I did probably a dozen things I could point to later and say, "Look, would a wolf do THIS?!"

I tried to look at every post from a villager's mindset to pull this off. I legit had Hoopy at 0% chance to be TC. I was telling the truth a lot of the time, to me Hoopy was clearly vanilla villager. If he's the vig I guess that makes sense, but I didn't think so. I was hoping he was getting the same read on me, or at least, vig read, so that if it came down to 3-1 or something, he'd side with me.

Huh? wuf is the turncoat? I don't buy it.

If wuf is indeed the turncoat then the last wolf need to concede. Let's check the scenario where wuf is telling the truth and he is the turncoat. Current cast of those in the village: 3 villagers, 1 turncoat, 1 vig, 1 seer, 1 wolf.

hoopy
keith
sdm
wufwugy
bigred
baudib
daven

End of Day 4: wuf dies. 3 villagers, 1 vig, 1 seer, 1 wolf.
End of Night 4: I get eaten, one of baudib or daven dies by the vig. Say daven gets shot and he's a villager. 2 villagers, 1 vig, 1 wolf.
End of Day 5: the remaining of baudib or daven gets hung. 2 villagers, 1 vig. It's over.

The wolves have been mathematically eliminated.

The only other possibility I can think of is if the last wolf will keep me alive overnight and make a fake claim as the seer tomorrow. Doing the math for that...

End of Day 4: same as above.
End of Night 4: one of the confirmed villagers gets eaten, one of baudib or daven dies by the vig. Say daven gets shot and he's a villager. 1 villager, 1 vig, 1 seer, 1 wolf.
End of Day 5: worst case scenario I get hanged because everyone in the village suffers from a severe cerebral hemmorhage. 1 villager, 1 seer, 1 wolf. Wolf gets shot since I am posthumously confirmed as the seer. 1 villager, 1 seer. It's over.

What if the vig gets nommed by the wolf tonight?

End of Day 4: same as above.
End of Night 4: vig gets eaten, but not before shooting. One of baudib or daven dies by the vig. Say daven gets shot and he's a villager. 2 villagers, 1 seer, 1 wolf.
End of Day 5: worst case scenario I get hanged because everyone in the village suffers from a severe cerebral hemmorhage. 1 villager, 1 seer, 1 wolf.
End of Night 5: wolf noms and wins.

Unless the wolf nails the vig the wolves have no chance. But it doesn't look likely.

Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

I would laugh if Eric and Mex end up being the wolves.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I conceded.

LOL Jesus I was gonna reach out to Daven if SDM lynched, even though I wasn't confident he was the wolf between you two. After Rong flipped villager I came to the final realization that even though the turncoat is aligned with the wolves, he's almost completely a villager because he and the wolves don't know who each other are.

If SDM had been lynched and my reach out was successful, it would have nullified all of SDM's lookups, but I only realized that after I faked and people started bolding SDM. But even then, I had checked out of the game already and didn't like that my reach out might not even hit the wolf, so the motivation to go bananas and get that fourth bold didn't exist. Plus I was going to be AFK for a whole day, and that's way more than enough time for SDM to completely crush anything I had to say

I thought Eric played like uber wolf in that he popped in late on every Day and bolded somebody, but the idea that he and Hubur wouldn't have a clear way of knowing why all their noms were of the top wolf hunters was too strong and I thought he was lock villager. Also you played very villagery

It's right to concede. The win is locked up now.

I thought Wuf did a good job and was laughing because I thought objectively that his claim made more sense than SDM's.

But I think he made a tiny error, he put me (Eric) on his lookup list. I think if he put a dead villager on there it'd pass inspection. I suspect that this is what led Daven down the path of discovery our B.S.

That whole thing was over before it started. I was never intending to fakeout and all of my posts right before it contradicted it. Granted, if I had been around today and was really feeling frisky, I think I could have done some damage. But I knew all people had to do was go back over my posts. My web of lies was pretty strong up until Day 4 when I realized it was all over

FWIW, I think this structure is super imba against the wolves. 13 players with 3 specials and 2 wolves is crazy pro-village. The turncoat looked a wee bit more powerful at first than it is, but I'd rate it as only 1/4th of a wolf


TANKS FOR MODDING RILLA. I hope my silly ass analysis and prediction PMs, that were totally and utterly wrong, gave you a chuckle

Summary of the game: SDM survives to Day 4 with 3 living villager scans. Outs as the seer and the turncoat and wolf commit suicide. Keith still says SDM sucks at werewolf even though his actions caused all this to happen. Hoopy, bigred, and daven hoist SDM up in the air on an ersatz throne and sing songs of victory and heroism. Then they sit SDM down at the poker table and take all of his money away.

The End.

Pretty sure Keith will understand that SDM is god

I am going to say this again: I hate the seer role. It's too powerful. A good seer can crush the wolves single-handedly like Courtie did last game. A bad seer hands the game right over to the wolves.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Pretty sure Keith will understand that SDM is god

lol! Who is your pick for the vig? That's the only thing we don't know about this game now.

My guess for the vig is... daven.

Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

I am going to say this again: I hate the seer role. It's too powerful. A good seer can crush the wolves single-handedly like Courtie did last game. A bad seer hands the game right over to the wolves.

I think it has more to do with how it's structured. This game simply had too many specials for the small pool and too few wolves (they should be 20-25% of the starting pool).

Also I think we under-utilize caps. To balance games, we should do things like cap lookups, saves, and shots


The flip side of it is that the village needs roles like the seer. Even though I wasn't a wolf, I was trying to misdirect the village and make them think I was something I'm not, and I realized that if I was playing as a wolf in a game without any seers or other powerful specials, we would crush. I mean, everybody did think that both Baudib and I were strong villager candidates all up until you outed and it was over

Yep I thought you were lock villager because of your fights with Ong. You played very well. If I didn't out, I was going to scan Eric tonight because of metagaming reasons. A non-chatty player (Eric) being substituted late with a chatty one? That screamed turncoat or wolf.

Originally Posted by StillDeadMoney

lol! Who is your pick for the vig? That's the only thing we don't know about this game now.

My guess for the vig is... daven.

I'm done with my dumb picks. I have literally been 100% wrong. I was sorta forced into thinking Ong was the vig (I blocked him since n1, and since the vig didn't shoot, I had to assume it was him). My next choice for vig was you since I saw in the previous game that you don't think it's good for the vig to shoot

Whoever the vig is, dude has some serious restraint. I'd be dropping cartridges left and right, halfway hoping I hit only villagers just so I can lol at how bad a shot I am

Yes the village desperately needs the roles. With random lynches, 12 villagers and 4 wolves, the wolves win about 90% of the time. With 9 villagers and 3 wolves, it's still almost a 90% chance. The thing is that the seer is what swings the balance so hard back towards the village. The seer is too much.

I like the idea of caps, but in a different way - the roles should be spread around. A simple example would be to make 3 villagers 1/3rd seer.