Vanilla Werewolf gameplay thread

[OngBonga]

I get why you would try to find villagers rather than wolves, but I don't get why you want to lynch me if you think I am a vanilla villager. Don't you have some clues as to who the wolves might be based on your confirmed villagers?

I'm pretty sure that a vanilla lynch is better for us than a wolf lynch, assuming I haven't looked at a special, and assuming we don't lose a confirm. But I'm gonna leave it to the village to figure out for today. There's not much I can do because I don't want to make any suggestions who to lynch otherwise they start to figure out who I looked at. It's obvious I haven't looked you up so you're a safe lynch in that respect. I'm not gonna interfere in village discussion other than to slam the brakes on a lynch that is a confirm.

I recomment a bee lynch, it's a tactical thing. If people don't trust me, I get that. Lynch someone else.

[GatorJH]

Ong, you can't guarantee actions tonight so I don't get how there could be a scenario where lynching a wolf is worse than lynching a villager.

[StillDeadMoney]

I will post a more comprehensive version of my reasoning tomorrow if anybody is interested, but I did some math today and here's what I found.

If Ong is a wolf, the game is a lock for the wolves if we lynch a villager tonight and tomorrow, even if the angel and vig come out tomorrow (100% chance of a wolf win), even if the wolves do not counter claim the specials (100% chance of a wolf win whether or not they do it), and even if the vig shoots Ong or another wolf tomorrow (about 25% chance of a village win, and that's using optimistic mathematical assumptions).
If Ong is telling the truth, hanging a villager today as he suggested is ridiculous. The wolves can fake out tomorrow and still pull off a win with a reasonable probability, even if he does confirm 3 living villagers that aren't specials. For the village, hanging a wolf is always better than hanging a villager.

Most importantly, there is no way to tell if Ong is telling the truth until he is dead. He can build credibility by finding a wolf, but if he does that, the real seer would have definitely scanned him and the jig would be up during the very next game day.

My gut is telling me that this is some big bluff that Ong wanted to try because the wagon was rolling on him quickly. The math shows that it's an easy win for the wolves if we take him seriously and he is a wolf, and Ong retains plausible deniability even if the next few people we lynch are villagers.

This game is far from being a lock, even if Ong is telling the truth. Today we need to hang a wolf, or else we have 1 more game day to turn it all around.

[Luco]

I'm pretty sure that a vanilla lynch is better for us than a wolf lynch, assuming I haven't looked at a special, and assuming we don't lose a confirm.

God dammit I have to bite here. Go on then wrongbonga, explain how taking a villager out of your unknown pool is ever better than taking out a wolf. As gator said, you can't predict the future.

[Luco]

I'll explain to you all why I think drew is wolfin. Ong said this last game:

I realise that knowing drew is a wolf means I'm not naturally reading him, but cmon, this is so different to his villager game. You all seem to think he's this useless as a villager - he's not. He is quite useless when villager, but he does try at times to make the effort. He was doing ok d1 but he lacks the stamina to keep playing to his villager meta, and instead starts to play to his village idiot reputation. That's a distinct difference in playstyle. When he's villager he isn't happy to be the village idiot, here it's what he wants people to see.

Drews opening post was his biggest, and now he's asking questions like 'what's 2+3?' and 'ong outed as seer?' It looks to me to be a similar gradual drop off in critical analysis that we saw last game and it concerns me.

[Keith]

I hate gators line on figuring out Ong today. If ong was a wolf heading for a death he's now turned this around so that angel now has to protect a possible wolf tonight if we don't try and figure Ong out today. this means the wolves have greater chance of hitting the real seer or the angel if Ong is faking . Both of which are really bad for the village . It also removes any chance of the angel blocking the wolves if Ong is a wolf.

[Luco]

...Gator's line? I said it before he did.

[OngBonga]

If we kill a wolf, then there are less wolves hiding in a larger group of vanillas. If we kill a vanilla, there's more wolves hiding in a smaller group of vanillas. Killing vanilla is optimal I believe because I think I have looked at two vanillas and hope to again tonight.

If we kill a wolf today, well I'll try and find a wolf tonight. If we kill vanilla I'm vanilla hunting and see if I'm right that vanilla hunting is optimal.

Bear in mind I don't actually know bee is vanilla, she could be wolf. I think she's not special because she isn't all that interested. That's also consistent with her wolf game.

And I don't know if my logic is sound or not. I don't know for sure that those I looked at are vanilla, I don't know what happens tonight. But I expect there to be no kill tonight for reasons dan stated. Wolves can't really afford to risk me getting two more lookups, seeing as this is lcked tomorrow if it all goes well. If I survive two nights, it's an easy lock.

Having four wolves around is helping me a lot, more so if I continue to dodge them.

[jyms]

I haven't looked at it, but in no way could I ever envision a way where killing a townie is better than killing a wolf.

[jyms]

I'd also like to congratulate Ong for making a possible wolf CB get so much villager cred without really being a lock villager. Him calling her vanilla has kind of locked us into defending her death.

[NightGizmo]

Where is gizmo?

Sorry guys -- this weekend ended up being super busy for me. Last night I was planning on going through the thread after I took a "nap", but that ended up being 11 hours long. I have some time now, I'm going to do some read-throughs. Back soon with some thoughts.

[NightGizmo]

Thoughts on Donkbee:

Day 1 -- one post, where she votes for bigred.

Day 2 -- her first post explains why she is not interested anymore, and her second post is basically a wishy-washy post starting with "I'm confused" and a lot of vague question-statements. 2 days later, some more empty posts ("how much time is left", etc.) and she then votes for TLR. One thing I noticed -- SDM and TLR were tied in the vote count, SDM put his vote on TLR, 6 minutes later Donkbee did the same. If they are both wolves, that could be Donkbee trying to help out SDM. But I only think this would be reliable if SDM flipped wolf -- finding out that Donkbee is a wolf doesn't give any info on SDM.

A lot of her posts read like this:

After reading this thread again, the people I'm most unsure about are Luco, bankitdrew, and jyms. Luco I'm not sure why I'm confused, I just can't figure him out. I wonder about bankitdrew because on one hand he keeps piggybacking off other people's posts, but on another he seems like he's trying to figure out what's actually best for the village at all times. jyms confuses me because he says that he won't answer questions, which is obv optimal for a wolf. But what real wolf would actually say that? If he is a wolf and said it, it's pretty ballsy. But if he won't answer questions, he's unwilling to give info, which is perfect for a wolf. And he has such a to-the-point and fuck-you-I-don't-care-what-you-think-about-me tone to all his posts that he would be the perfect candidate to actually say that as a wolf and get away with it.

It doesn't sound like wolf-hunting or villager-seeking, it's just a lot of vague "I'm confused" and "I'm unsure of this person." She states nothing definitive.

Donkbee has a serious lack of posts, so it's tough to get a solid read on her, but I have her leaning wolf.

[OngBonga]

I haven't looked at it, but in no way could I ever envision a way where killing a townie is better than killing a wolf.

Imagine if we have 9 players left with 4 wolves and 3 specials. That leaves 2 vanillas, who, if both are confirmed, locks the game for us. I want an extra clear because I can't expect people to accept my claim today, which means you can wait for me to be nommed before accepting me as seer.

Imagine if we have 9 players left with 3 wolves and 3 specials. That leaves 3 vanillas, meaning I need four clears to lock the game. The game will be locked from my pov, but I need to die before people start lynching based on my conclusions, which buys the wolves a day, and thus gives them a chance of recovering.

It makes sense to me. I'll decide what to do tonight when I see today's flip.

[NightGizmo]

Hoopy:

Day 1 -- not too active, but still participating. Calls Rong out for one wolfy post. Didn't vote for anybody.

Day 2 -- "was busy with work". Went after daven for a little while, eventually rescinded. Voted rilla briefly, but then jumped off because "don't want his wagon to get too big before he gets a chance to respond." Ended up voting for SDM. His posts thoughout the day were generally short and asked more questions than provided analysis.

Day 3 -- been pretty quiet.

I usually have a hard time reading Hoopy because he's pretty reserved, and this game he seems really reserved. If I had to pick between villager or wolf, I'd say wolf, mainly because a lot of his posts asked open-ended questions like "What do you think about so-and-so?" rather than provide his own analysis.

[GatorJH]

I hate gators line on figuring out Ong today. If ong was a wolf heading for a death he's now turned this around so that angel now has to protect a possible wolf tonight if we don't try and figure Ong out today. this means the wolves have greater chance of hitting the real seer or the angel if Ong is faking . Both of which are really bad for the village . It also removes any chance of the angel blocking the wolves if Ong is a wolf.

Actually, now that I think it through it probably does make some sense to figure it out even if we don't lynch him today.

[GatorJH]

And I think we need to start putting pressure on people. lynch BID

[GatorJH]

If we kill a wolf, then there are less wolves hiding in a larger group of vanillas. If we kill a vanilla, there's more wolves hiding in a smaller group of vanillas. Killing vanilla is optimal I believe because I think I have looked at two vanillas and hope to again tonight.

This would only apply if village had a huge lead. In this game where the wolves are still at full strength we HAVE to try to find a wolf today. The benefit there, even with more villagers, is that the found wolf's posts will hopefully make it easier to find the other wolves.

[NightGizmo]

BID:

Day 1 -- Showed up late, used backwards logic of "if you're attacking me, you're a villager, but if you make any comment that defends me, you're a wolf" and then accused gabe of being a wolf. Voted for bigred.

Night 1 -- accuses Keith of being a wolf, "One down two to go" -- miscounts the number of wolves? Was he thinking of how many other wolves there are instead of the total? Also complained that the bigred wagon started too quickly, even though Day 1 went almost the entire 72 hours.

Day 2 -- Starts spewing accusations with no reasons whatsoever. Votes for jyms, says "Gator is always a wolf" and further claims that since Gator is a wolf, Luco must be a wolf, but doesn't really qualify why. Then goes on to say "This makes me feel like jyms is a wolf who knows gator is a villager" -- which contradicts his earlier statement (2 posts back) that Gator is alway a wolf. Was pushing hard for a jyms lynch, but then jumped onto SDM after I made an argument against SDM.

I really hate how the bigred wagon seemed to start so quickly. It means that the village gets essentially no read on the players in the game on day 1. Next time we should be discussing our plans but not actually settle on a player until the final 24 hours of the day.

BID was the second-to-last vote on the bigred wagon. If you hated how quickly the wagon started, why did you participate in ending it?

For the record, of all of the lynches thus far, I've only bolded bigred.

I know most people think I suck at this game but I'm just trying to re-iterate that I'm not as bad at this game as you might think.

There have only been two lynches at this point. So you've only lynched a villager 50% of the time? Why are you bringing this up?

Conclusion: His actions aren't out of character as a BID villager, but a BID villager looks super-wolfy. Given that it's critical to lynch a wolf tonight, I guess we have to leave him be for now and just ignore him.

[Hoopy]

I'm still suspicious of SDM because of him avoiding a lynch in favor of TLR, but his last few posts are definitely helpful number crunching. Need to check this myself.

I'll explain to you all why I think drew is wolfin. Ong said this last game:



Drews opening post was his biggest, and now he's asking questions like 'what's 2+3?' and 'ong outed as seer?' It looks to me to be a similar gradual drop off in critical analysis that we saw last game and it concerns me.

Now this is a really good post, I've got luco as a villager so far.

lynch bankitdrew

[NightGizmo]

Keith:

Day 1 -- most of day 1, he looks like villager. His "I will be scanned and then eaten, so the vig should shoot me instead" is weird at first glance. It's a very self-sacrificing move, but if he truly believes that he's going to die on night 2 or 3 from the wolves anyway, then it's helpful to let the seer know to ignore him with a very good alternative.

Day 2 -- got into arguments with multiple people, voted for multiple people. Ended up voting for TLR. Keith is pretty wordy -- I'm not including any long quotes here.

Conclusion: I think Keith is a villager. Nothing jumped out at me as wolfy, he's actively wolf-hunting and provoking discussion in the village, and his "don't scan me, instead shoot me" gambit doesn't sound like anything a wolf would ask on Day 1.

[NightGizmo]

I'm stopping for now, but I still have two players that I don't need to do a read-through:

SDM -- he's in the same category as BID. Either he's a wolf or a really bad villager. I'm just ignoring him for now.

Rilla -- I still have him in my wolf camp, and his few posts today only reinforced that. He's not acting how I expect a villager-Rilla to act -- normally he'd be driving a lot more discussion.

[jyms]

I still think Ong is a wolf from Day one, I rescinded for now but I will put bolds on SDM, Rilla or BID. I will even still bold Ong If I think the village thinks it's worth it.

Lynch SDM for now

[Luco]

rescind rong

lynch bankitdrew

[Keith]

these posts illustrate my problem with GAtor

Actually, now that I think it through it probably does make some sense to figure it out even if we don't lynch him today.

woo hoo he agrees that figuring out Ong may help find other wolves

And I think we need to start putting pressure on people. lynch BID

So does he try and figure Ong out , NO he tries to start another wagon on a soft target

This would only apply if village had a huge lead. In this game where the wolves are still at full strength we HAVE to try to find a wolf today. The benefit there, even with more villagers, is that the found wolf's posts will hopefully make it easier to find the other wolves.

Again not thinking about the situation and misrepresenting it. tomorrow if we lose two villagers we get down to 10 left. seer can reveal3 villagers +seer+vig+angel which gives 6 knowns an 4 unknowns as a best case scenario and wolves have to try and muddy the waters fake outing but makes it easy to target the remaining wolves. only person who shouldn't out is the angel . The fact that seer can possibly win it tomorrow makeit a far liklier situation thatthe wolves fake out today to try and force the real seer to counter claim and give the wolves a clear shot at taking out a hidden true seer. If Ong was the real seer , the wolves would be forced to counterclaim today and sacrifice one of their team and hope to split the angel protection for a 50% chance that angel protects the wolf and the wolves get to kill ong. This hasn't happened.

Instead we have a wagon running on bid ....who made the comment along the lines of " so Ong just outted as seer". do the wolves think that BID is the seer? I haven't been and checked bid but it worries me that luco and gator both said ...can't lynch ong today don't worry about him and now hoopy luco and gator are all trying to railroad the wagon through on BID

[rong]

Well we're kind of stuck now. In case ong is legit we need to avoid lynching anyone who may have been looked up to ensure ong isn't forced to give up the info.

It seems bid is an unlikely look up so it's bid or courtie or we say fuck you ong and do our own thing.

Given those option I'm ok with either courtie or bid. Courtie has hardly even paid attention though so I think she may be a better option in spite of coming across as s villager.

[rong]

Hadn't read Keith's post befkf posting the above.

[rong]

The lack of a counter claim could just ad easily be due to the wolves not thinking things through as ong being legit. But its a good point nonetheless.

[jyms]

If I was seer I wouldn't counterclaim just yet either though

[rong]

Agreed. But Keith's point is that if ong is legit then the wolves should have counter claimed by now.

[StillDeadMoney]

Some of my math. This post is in response to Ong's proposed strategy.

Killing vanilla is optimal I believe because I think I have looked at two vanillas and hope to again tonight.

You think you have looked at two vanillas? Doesn't the seer know the role of the people he scans?

Imagine if we have 9 players left with 4 wolves and 3 specials. That leaves 2 vanillas, who, if both are confirmed, locks the game for us. I want an extra clear because I can't expect people to accept my claim today, which means you can wait for me to be nommed before accepting me as seer.

Imagine if we have 9 players left with 3 wolves and 3 specials. That leaves 3 vanillas, meaning I need four clears to lock the game. The game will be locked from my pov, but I need to die before people start lynching based on my conclusions, which buys the wolves a day, and thus gives them a chance of recovering.

Let's use the numbers from this game. Throughout this analysis I am going to ignore the possibility of an angel blocking a nom and I will assume a special does not get eaten.

scenario 1 - a villager is lynched at the end of day 3
end d3: 7villagers 4wolves, villager lynched
end n3: 6v 4w, villager eaten (43% chance it's a special)

scenario 2 - a wolf is lynched at the end of day 3
end d3: 8v 3w, wolf lynched
end n3: 7v 3w, villager eaten (38% chance it's a special)

day 4 begins. Suppose the specials out themselves, and your scans are all on vanilla villagers.

Ong is the true seer possibility:

scenario 1
start d4: 6vc 4w (3 confirmed specials, 3 scanned villagers). The village wins immediately if the wolves do not counterclaim the seer . Assume the wolves counterclaim all the specials. One wolf will pretend to be the true seer and give his own list of "confirmed" villagers, one will pretend to be the angel, and one will pretend to be the vig. We're back to square 1 and the village doesn't know anything for sure. Therefore, the count is really 6v 4w. The end of day 4 has 2 possibilities...
end d4 1: 5v 4w, villager is lynched.
And its night has 3 possibilities.
night d4 1 1: 4v 4w, villager eaten, vig either shoots a villager that was nommed or holds his fire.
night d4 1 2: 3v 4w, villager eaten, vig shoots a villager.
night d4 1 3: 4v 3w, villager eaten, vig shoots a wolf, probably the fake vigilante.

d4-1-1 and d4-1-2 are immediate losses for the village. d4-1-3 looks very bad for the village and the village still doesn't know if Ong is for real or not.

end d4 2: 6v 3w wolf is lynched.
And its night has 3 possibilities.
night d4 2 1: 5v 3w, villager eaten, vig either shoots a villager that was nommed or holds his fire.
night d4 2 2: 4v 3w, villager eaten, vig shoots a villager.
night d4 2 3: 5v 2w, villager eaten, vig shoots a wolf, probably the fake vigilante.

The village is still in contention to win, and d4-2-3 looks quite good for the village. The village still doesn't know if Ong is for real or not.

The numbers all look better on scenario 2, and the seer has more time to find and confirm villagers and wolves. It should be clear lynching a wolf is always better for the village.

Here is the "Ong is a wolf" possibility where a villager is hung tonight, the angel and the vig come out and they are genuine, and the real seer remains quiet.

start d4: 2v confirmed 4v unconfirmed 4w

Wolf ong gives his list of "3 living villagers" and I call them unconfirmed because all we have is Ong's word. He will include at least 1 wolf, but he may include all the other wolves as part of his list of confirmed villagers. Doing so guarantees that the village hangs a vanilla villager at the end of day 4.

end d4: 2v confirmed 3v unconfirmed 4w, a villager is lynched. This alone is not enough information to tell whether or not Ong is the seer.
And this night has 3 possibilities.
night d4 3 1: 4v 4w, villager eaten, vig either shoots a villager that was nommed or holds his fire.
night d4 3 2: 3v 4w, villager eaten, vig shoots a villager.
night d4 3 3: 4v 3w, villager eaten, vig shoots a wolf.

And we still don't know Ong's true identity after all of this.

Ong, if you are the real seer, you came out way too early.

[StillDeadMoney]

Again not thinking about the situation and misrepresenting it. tomorrow if we lose two villagers we get down to 10 left. seer can reveal3 villagers +seer+vig+angel which gives 6 knowns an 4 unknowns as a best case scenario and wolves have to try and muddy the waters fake outing but makes it easy to target the remaining wolves. only person who shouldn't out is the angel . The fact that seer can possibly win it tomorrow makeit a far liklier situation thatthe wolves fake out today to try and force the real seer to counter claim and give the wolves a clear shot at taking out a hidden true seer. If Ong was the real seer , the wolves would be forced to counterclaim today and sacrifice one of their team and hope to split the angel protection for a 50% chance that angel protects the wolf and the wolves get to kill ong. This hasn't happened.

They don't have to counterclaim today. In fact, if Ong is a wolf, they don't have to counterclaim tomorrow either (but they still can), as the math in my above post shows.

Not to mention, Ong's plan relies on him having scanned vanilla villagers, if seer can only know if a person is a wolf or not. I would appreciate clarification here on the rules.

If Ong is the true seer, the plan is a disaster. The village cannot possibly clinch a win on day 3 by having scanned two living villagers and not having killed any wolves.

I'm going to take a closer look at this quote:

seer can reveal3 villagers +seer+vig+angel which gives 6 knowns an 4 unknowns as a best case scenario and wolves have to try and muddy the waters fake outing but makes it easy to target the remaining wolves.

The village can still quickly run out of time, because with two special claims, the village only has a 50/50 shot of hanging a wolf. If the village hangs a villager or special at the end of day 4, it's up to the vig to keep the village in the game.

[Keith]

SDM ......real seer pretty much always outs tomorrow unless all his lookups are dead

[Keith]

Agreed. But Keith's point is that if ong is legit then the wolves should have counter claimed by now.

This......if ONG is legit and gets his lookup tonight wolves are pretty much certain to lose unless they have eaten the lookups. they can't counterclaim as vig.....real vig just shoots the vig claimer tomorrow night ....dead wolf. angel shouldn't out tomorrow unless targetted. gives the wolves an out but we should be able to sort that out after.

[Luco]

SDM the seer is only given 'villager' or 'wolf'. Not roles.

[donkbee]

Hoopy:


Day 1 -- not too active, but still participating. Calls Rong out for one wolfy post. Didn't vote for anybody.


Day 2 -- "was busy with work". Went after daven for a little while, eventually rescinded. Voted rilla briefly, but then jumped off because "don't want his wagon to get too big before he gets a chance to respond." Ended up voting for SDM. His posts thoughout the day were generally short and asked more questions than provided analysis.


Day 3 -- been pretty quiet.


I usually have a hard time reading Hoopy because he's pretty reserved, and this game he seems really reserved. If I had to pick between villager or wolf, I'd say wolf, mainly because a lot of his posts asked open-ended questions like "What do you think about so-and-so?" rather than provide his own analysis.

I agree with this actually. Someone else mentioned Hoopy too. And Hoopy also just ignores everyone that ever mentions him, which is a really wolfy thing to do. Just ignore the problem and maybe it'll go away?


Lynch Hoopy

[GatorJH]

Ong,
Your analysis has some flaws.

Scenario 1
night d4 - If there are two vig claims the real vig shoots the fake vig - one wolf down
night d4 - If there is no fake vig claim, but two seer claims the vig picks one of two seers to shoot and confirms seer (Naturally this assumes he hits wolf).

Scenario 2 is the same unless there is no seer counterclaim. In that scenario it may be best for Vig to NOT shoot.

Btw, I agree that Ong (if he is the Seer) came out too early.

[OngBonga]

SDM ......real seer pretty much always outs tomorrow unless all his lookups are dead

Unless he's getting wagonned. I wanted to nip my wagon in the bud before it got out of hand. It's still won if all goes well so claiming today is only slightly worse than claiming tomorrow.

I'm not expecting a counterclaim and it would be fine by me if it did happen.

[OngBonga]

gator, here won't be a vig counterclaim tomorrow. They'll claim angel and seer. That's why there's no seer counterclaim today. Tomorrow will be a shitstorm of claiming imo.

I'll be more open to discussing the flaws in my strategy tomorrow when I reveal.

[wufwugy]

bee - hoopy
luco - bid
jyms - sdm
hoopy - bid
gator - bid
keith - ong
ong - bee

no vote - bid, sdm, rong, gizmo, rilla

hoopy = 1
bid = 3
sdm = 1
ong = 1
bee = 1

Day 3 ends in just under 24 hours at 7:00 PM PST Monday

[StillDeadMoney]

lynch BiD. I'm going to wagon.

[BankItDrew]

I'm the angel.

I protected myself night 1 and thongbee night 2

[BankItDrew]

I'll explain to you all why I think drew is wolfin. Ong said this last game:



Drews opening post was his biggest, and now he's asking questions like 'what's 2+3?' and 'ong outed as seer?' It looks to me to be a similar gradual drop off in critical analysis that we saw last game and it concerns me.

I straight up lose interest fast, in every single game I've ever played.

[BankItDrew]

Of the people with votes on them:

Sdm is trying very hard to help the village.

Thongbee is like me, but I'm the angel.

Ong is the seer and I see more value in trusting him at this point than not.

Hoopy, I have no idea.

lynch thongbee

[StillDeadMoney]

​rescind BiD

[BankItDrew]

If I recall correctly, I felt odd about Luco day 1 and 2. Now, he's starting a wagon against me.

My backwards theory about wolves defending me / villagers attacking me, didn't work well and everyone thinks it's stupid. So I'm going to kill it and:

rescind thongbee
Lynch Luco

[BankItDrew]

I just double checked and want to point out that Luco was the third one on my wagon but the first to try and bring evidence against me today.

[Luco]

I'm the angel.

I protected myself night 1 and thongbee night 2

Sigh. This is exactly what i would expect you to do as a wolf, but there won't be a counterclaim today so rescind bid and let's see what tomorrow brings.

I straight up lose interest fast, in every single game I've ever played.

Not true, two games ago you were heavily involved right to the end as a villager. Also, it was you who asked for this game to start in the first place. Also, specials don't often lose interest - with great power comes great responsibility. Saying that you were keeping a low profile would have been more believable.

But I'm flexible and willing to listen, so if you're legit there's a simple solution - hunt. Read through, then slap your brain on the page. Let's solve this.

[Keith]

I'm the angel.

I protected myself night 1 and thongbee night 2

why would you protect yourself night 1???? wolves would never eat you so why not protect gabe ,gator,JV etc and save the self protection for night 2 when the vig was liable to take you out

[Keith]

If gator flips wolf, I can nearly guarantee a luco wolf.

reading through the thread ......i get the feeling that ong luco and bid are all on wolf team. i think it was luco and ong and hoopy that seemed to put pressure on rilla the day that TLR got killed and when no "out" appeared they pulled back. they also seemed to cordinate their voting onto tlr and SDM to leave it a 3 way tie.Since ong and bid are claiming specials, lynch LUCO.

read the thread and think about their interaction. Hoopy is my outlier as the last wolf .

[OngBonga]

I don't buy it. Angel should be self protecting on even nights whens the vig is shooting.

Luco is my pick for the vig. Don't force his claim please.

[OngBonga]

Oh and keith, if drew was wolf with me I'd have told him to claim self protect n2, so try again.

[GatorJH]

I much prefer Hoopy or Gizmo if we can't lynch BID.

rescind BID, lynch Gizmo

[Hoopy]

I'm the angel.

I protected myself night 1 and thongbee night 2

rescind bankitdrew

Interesting protects, you were worried about dying on night 1? And bee on night 2?

[BankItDrew]

I thought wolves nom players that look villagery, so I protected the inexperienced players. Also, that thing ong mentioned about self protecting on even nights vs the vig never crossed my mind. BTW, I've never been angel before but I gotta say that it's not as exciting as I would assume the seer and vig are. I've never been either of those two too.

So obviously most people think I shouldn't have protected who I did on the first two nights. What about the third now that me and ong have outted? Is this a roll of the RNG between him and me? Or should I be focusing on a different group?

[Luco]

weren't you n4 angel in diffusion drew? You protected hoopy iirc

[BankItDrew]

maybe

i don't remember though

[Keith]

I thought wolves nom players that look villagery, so I protected the inexperienced players. Also, that thing ong mentioned about self protecting on even nights vs the vig never crossed my mind. BTW, I've never been angel before but I gotta say that it's not as exciting as I would assume the seer and vig are. I've never been either of those two too.

So obviously most people think I shouldn't have protected who I did on the first two nights. What about the third now that me and ong have outted? Is this a roll of the RNG between him and me? Or should I be focusing on a different group?

you just came out of a game as a wolf where we hit the specials first thre nights. When did we ever do it because we thought they were villagery? rilla was got because he was a threat to us and wuf cos he was a late game threat that we could all agree on. do you still wantto try and convince us that you aren't as bad as we thought when it didn't cross your mind to self protect when the vig had a shot.

[Hoopy]

Well I'll try and put in some work now. Assuming that ong and drew are left alone today I think the village looks like this.

Villager
luco - Taking pro village positions, seems to be thinking logically.
keith - Seems more consistent than last game when he was wolfin.
jyms - More quiet but saying pro village things.

Unknown
sdm - Numbers have been useful but not giving opinions on many people. Lean village.
rong - No idea.
gizmo - Doing his day by day analysis of everyone. Could go either way.
gator - Hard to figure out.

Wolves
rilla - Made 1 good post but then lapsed into silence, hasn't pushed people or hunted wolves.
donkbee - Slipping along in the shadows.

[BankItDrew]

do you still wantto try and convince us that you aren't as bad as we thought when it didn't cross your mind to self protect when the vig had a shot.

for the second time, no.

[Luco]

reading through the thread ......i get the feeling that ong luco and bid are all on wolf team. i think it was luco and ong and hoopy that seemed to put pressure on rilla the day that TLR got killed and when no "out" appeared they pulled back. they also seemed to cordinate their voting onto tlr and SDM to leave it a 3 way tie.Since ong and bid are claiming specials, lynch LUCO.

read the thread and think about their interaction. Hoopy is my outlier as the last wolf .

This looks like authentic digging to me. I still think you're a villager.

Keith, I notice your tone with me has changed since we started disagreeing over strategy. you think ong must be dealt with today. I disagree. This disagreement over strategy likely put me up on your wolfdar, so you went back with that in mind and saw whatever you wanted to see. That's the impression I'm getting from you.

Ong - Let's not say I trust him more than you. Let's say I distrust him less than you do. For me its no counterclaim, no lynch.

Bid - No counterclaim, no lynch. Tempting, but no.

Hoopy - Not bad.

[rong]

Yeah I actually agree with Luco. I'm not lynching a claimed special wiyhiutba counter claim. Hoopy has been on my list since day 1.

[Keith]

hmmmm thought i had swapped to hoopy earlier .......couldn't have hit enter. lynch hoopy

[Luco]

I much prefer Hoopy or Gizmo if we can't lynch BID.

rescind BID, lynch Gizmo

I like this. You could be 2/2 here.

[OngBonga]

Drew's claim has put me in an awkward spot. If he's the angel, he has to protect me if I don't reveal, not doing so risks too much info being lost. It's one thing the angel protecting me when he's hidden, but it's a whole different ball game protecting me when he's outed. From angel drew pov, if I'm wolf I have a free shot at the angel tonight if he's protecting me. So he might protect himself. That leaves me vulnerable.

There was another reason I wanted a vanilla today. Vanilla doesn't claim. I'd like a seer claim because I know that's bollocks and basically gives me a free lookup, but an angel claim is awkward for me, which is exactly why a wolf would do it.

I think I'm gonna have to reveal before the night is over, but I'll do it as late as possible so it gives the wolves less time to react.

[Luco]

wouldn't an outed angel just protect the outed seer 100%?

Even if the outed seer is fake the wolves would always nom the angel. Right?

[OngBonga]

wouldn't an outed angel just protect the outed seer 100%?

Would you if you were angel? How much do you trust my claim? Enough to risk protecting a wolf so you're unprotected? If drew is angel, this is the dilemma facing him tonight, which means I can't be 100% sure I'm getting protected. And if he's a wolf, he's trying to force me to reveal. It's an awkward spot for me that I can only solve by making sure I'm online as the night ends, ehich might or might not be possible, idk yet.

[Luco]

Would you if you were angel? How much do you trust my claim? Enough to risk protecting a wolf so you're unprotected? If drew is angel, this is the dilemma facing him tonight, which means I can't be 100% sure I'm getting protected. And if he's a wolf, he's trying to force me to reveal. It's an awkward spot for me that I can only solve by making sure I'm online as the night ends, ehich might or might not be possible, idk yet.

I'm saying the seer would be guaranteed another lookup whether its you or not. It's not about trusting you, it protects the seer even if you're wolfin. We would lose the angel though.

[wufwugy]

gator - gizmo
keith - luco
bid - luco
ong - bee
jyms - sdm
bee - hoopy

nobody - hoopy, luco, sdm, rong, gizmo, rilla

gizmo - 1
luco - 2
bee - 1
sdm - 1
hoopy - 1

Day 3 ends in 3 hours and 26 minutes

[Luco]

hmm

lynch gizmo

[wufwugy]

gator - gizmo
keith - hoopy
bid - luco
ong - bee
jyms - sdm
bee - hoopy
luco - gizmo

nobody - hoopy, luco, sdm, rong, gizmo, rilla

gizmo - 2
luco - 1
bee - 1
sdm - 1
hoopy - 2

Day 3 ends in 3 hours and 26 minutes

Fixed.

Keith, I missed your vote because it's not on the first line. That could have been a fucking disaster. Thanks to a deader for pointing it out

[Luco]

Wuf, Keith is on hoopy.

[BankItDrew]

The way I see it:

The seer gets protected (whoever that is) when I protect ong and I get nommed. If I don't get nommed, either I am a wolf or the wolves are trying to frame me.

[BankItDrew]

It would be a disaster if the wolves nom someone else, then we have no confirmed villagers.

[Luco]

Hmm, and they could nom someone else now that I think about it.

[BankItDrew]

If ong is lying, the real seer should have outted by now imo. I don't see me having any other option but to protect ong.