Theory Question

For 1-table SNG's.

Assuming you have an edge over your opponents, how often should you go for broke when there are still 9 players at the table?

Taking pf coinflips for full stacks (AK vs TT for example), I mean.


Or should early gambles be avoided altogether?

I dont have a problem taking flips early

If you think you have a slight edge (i.e. 1010 here with a confident read and FE) I take it usually. If your playing properly rolled in the long run its a profitable AI I would have to think.

Question then would be whether doubling up when you're nowhere near the prizes is worth risking bombing out, costing you the buyin. Those extra chips are a long way from actually being ITM....

Originally Posted by arfster

Question then would be whether doubling up when you're nowhere near the prizes is worth risking bombing out, costing you the buyin. Those extra chips are a long way from actually being ITM....

Very true, I thought about that but ICM gives me a headache so I avoided that in my response which was a mistake. At 6 max an early double up and knocking someone out gives you an excellent shot to get ITM at 9 max its not as clear. I think the important thing to think about is whether the AI here is slightly +Ev or slightly -EV. If you have a good read that its slightly + its obviously much more worth the gamble. That said I think fold or push could be justified here.

The extra chips from a double up are worth no where near 1 buyin. There's no way I take a flip early knowing it is a flip without some damn good odds. That's true even if I think the rest of the players are better than me. At least in theory...

I very very rarely finish worse than 6th in an STT, so those results pretty much answer the question. It usually takes a bad beat or a serious cooler to knock me out early.

Flips arent worth it early imo.

Also, you can rarely have a good enough read to know you're flipping PF. I probably only get into this kind of situation where I'm the one pushing first, say if the pot is 20%+ of my stack and I have AK and I push and someone calls me.

what bjsaust said.. if you are the aggressor you can profitably do it because you have a chance to get the dead chips at the pot..

In SnG there is no need to take a 45/55 Flip and risk getting knocked out early...like what someone said in a previous post..its a long way from the money and your tourney equity does not double when your chip stack doubles...good ol' ICM..

Chip Expected value =\= Expected value (cash). The play might be slight +cEV but probably massively -EV.

Think of it this way: 10 players, payouts are 5-3-2 buy-ins (standard). 1 guy knocks out the other 8 players, while you sit there folding hand after hand. Though your starting chip count stays the same, your $EV climbs after each player busts.

Also, like another poster stated, the doubling up your chip count doesn't double your expected value. The general principle is that chips are worth more if you have less, worth less if you have more (losing chips costs more than gaining chips pays off).

Example: In my ten-player scenario, say you knock out 4 players and so have 5x the number of chips you started with. Do you now have 5 Buy-ins worth of chips? No, because first place is not a lock, even if you do half the chips.

So basically, since players get paid money even though they end up with 0 chips (2nd and 3rd place end up with 0 chips, yet get paid cash for them), you should be bust averse.

This is not a cash game, where you (theoretically) want to exploit every edge you have. Early gambles blow since tournament players are paid based on survival. Not to say you shouldn't get in allin with kings or aces preflop on round 1 (which is a hell of a lot better than a flip), just saying that taking flips early is -EV. Where does that EV go? Not suprisingly, to the players that are watching you two play chicken.

Last (exaggerated) example: Sattelite final table- top 3 players get entry into a big tournament. 4 Players left with 10,000 chips each. Blinds are 1/2 chips. Player 1 open shoves. Player 2 calls. The other two players +EV just went up massively.

As a previous poster stated, a slight odds advantage is not a green light everytime in a S&G. I have been given shit over and over again because of my nit like ways early in tourneys on this forum. Yet my ROI is strong as is my ITM average. I avoid coin flips and even 65-45 odds when I can early if we are playing for stacks. I suppose it seriously depends on stakes played at ( I play mostly $5.50's and some $11's ) but I know at that level I am a better player then most of the people I am sitting with. I would rather not give a -16% ROI player even a 45% chance of knocking me out. I expect I will run into a better spot to take his money. You have to take some risks but early in a tournament with little reads I avoid the AI's like the freaking plague unless I know I have a great hand.

Now as blinds increase and the bubble approaches it changes things. Take a 10 player tournament, say you double up the first hand and now you have gained 1500 chips. Thats great, but when the blinds are 100-200 that is a normal pot. I guess what I'm saying is the goal is getting ITM, and to do that you need to minimize risk even if mathmatically you have the advantage.

Your Example. You have pocket 10's, you somehow know your oppent has A-K. Now mathmatically you are ahead and have the advantage. Given that do you go AI with this guy? Many will say yes, you have to go because you are getting your money in good and long term that will bring the most rewards. I don't always believe that means its the best thing to do. I see each tournament as a single entity. If this guy is a bad player I would rather play for awhile and bleed him out or wait till I have 80-20 odds. Will that always happen...no. But I feel that I would rather take that chance then risk busting out in ninth because I had a 7% edge. It is a different animal then cash play.

Just my opinion and I'm sure I will be railed again for it.

Good post bigslikk.

Originally Posted by bigslikk

Not to say you shouldn't get in allin with kings or aces preflop on round 1 (which is a hell of a lot better than a flip), just saying that taking flips early is -EV.

And we all know how often a flush sucks out on us when we go AI early with AA or KK

against multi opps i avoid an early all in like the plague. I've actually folded AA in late position early in a STT when facing a bet, an AI raise and a call infront of me. I know i can outplay them eventually so why risk my stack against 2 and possibly 3 opponents early? no math to back that up but thats my 2cents

Originally Posted by gop2004

against multi opps i avoid an early all in like the plague. I've actually folded AA in late position early in a STT when facing a bet, an AI raise and a call infront of me.

Ok, I would never do that pre-flop. But I would dump Q's and J's, K's I doubt it.

You are so gonna get railed on for that comment.

Thanks for taking heat off me. LOL

Originally Posted by gop2004

against multi opps i avoid an early all in like the plague. I've actually folded AA in late position early in a STT when facing a bet, an AI raise and a call infront of me. I know i can outplay them eventually so why risk my stack against 2 and possibly 3 opponents early? no math to back that up but thats my 2cents

Ok... depending on the bets from multi opps and if you have a read, I can see a slim opportunity to dump AA, but I think in the long run there is not enough justification to ever dump AA... I'm raising the highest raise to 3x his raise, trying to isolate but if he pushes, hell, I'm probably pushing first chance I get, then fist pump when they call.

Yeah, I figure AA there is probably facing two lower pairs (aa wins 67%), or a lower pair and ak/aq (83%). I'd take those odds any day, cos tripling up moves you really close to the money in a STT.

If original raiser also calls, with a moderately decent hand, you're around 60-70% to quadruple your stack (and take out near half the table).

thread fails

pot odds yo

Originally Posted by gop2004

against multi opps i avoid an early all in like the plague. I've actually folded AA in late position early in a STT when facing a bet, an AI raise and a call infront of me. I know i can outplay them eventually so why risk my stack against 2 and possibly 3 opponents early? no math to back that up but thats my 2cents

I doubt it.

[quote="Monty3038"]

Originally Posted by gop2004

Ok... depending on the bets from multi opps and if you have a read, I can see a slim opportunity to dump AA,.

When, given that its early in the tournament and chip stacks are fairly equal, would be a slim opportunity to fold A-A? They can never have a better hand then you so why would you ever fold?

Originally Posted by Jack Sawyer

For 1-table SNG's.

Assuming you have an edge over your opponents, how often should you go for broke when there are still 9 players at the table?

Taking pf coinflips for full stacks (AK vs TT for example), I mean.


Or should early gambles be avoided altogether?

Surely taking a coin flip negates your edge, and thus should be avoided at all costs?

Theortically speaking, if you know you are flipping and there is virtually no money in the pot, you are correct, but this is practically never happening

Originally Posted by TLR

Theortically speaking, if you know you are flipping and there is virtually no money in the pot, you are correct, but this is practically never happening

We have a winner.

[quote="Deuce Blue"]

Originally Posted by Monty3038

Originally Posted by gop2004

Ok... depending on the bets from multi opps and if you have a read, I can see a slim opportunity to dump AA,.

When, given that its early in the tournament and chip stacks are fairly equal, would be a slim opportunity to fold A-A? They can never have a better hand then you so why would you ever fold?

Against one player you are correct, against multiple, I see too many times that someone sucks out a flush on my AA to actually consider it a 100% given... thus sometimes it causes me pause... a slim chance but it happens to me it seems like often.

Guess I should clarify my last response... the chance is slim but I still tend to shove... I don't recall ever folding AA more than once.

Originally Posted by Monty3038

Guess I should clarify my last response... the chance is slim but I still tend to shove... I don't recall ever folding AA more than once.

Thats 100% more then I ever folded AA preflop

Hey I never claimed to be anything but a donk

Never ever fold AA PF outside of a sattellite, and then it would be a very rare circumstance.

Pot Odds could be argued, but ICM still applies, and you can never be sure you're flipping.

if i am capable of following my own advice, i would never take a flip early for the double up. not to say i haven't done it before.
bjsaust is right, in practice you can never know if you are in a flip. and practice > theory in poker.

Originally Posted by gop2004

against multi opps i avoid an early all in like the plague. I've actually folded AA in late position early in a STT when facing a bet, an AI raise and a call infront of me. I know i can outplay them eventually so why risk my stack against 2 and possibly 3 opponents early? no math to back that up but thats my 2cents

you sir are burning money.
folding AA in a sng is a huge leak. regardless of the situation.

against one guy, Sure, folding AA PF is overwhelmingly a bad move. But not in the situation I laid out. I believe I said I faced a standard bet, an AI raise and a call of the AI raise. I'm facing at least 2 and possible 3 opponents.

AA is way ahead of any one of them. But it is not ahead of 3 of them in the sense that I have to beat them all to win the pot. It's early, I have no chips in the pot. Why risk what is at best a flip.

Like I also said this is not something that occurs often. I should also clarify my original response. I said

against multi opps i avoid an early all in like the plague.

I should have specified PF. If I have a nuttish hand after the flop of course I'm looking to punish.

Originally Posted by gop2004

against one guy, Sure, folding AA PF is overwhelmingly a bad move. But not in the situation I laid out. I believe I said I faced a standard bet, an AI raise and a call of the AI raise. I'm facing at least 2 and possible 3 opponents.

AA is way ahead of any one of them. But it is not ahead of 3 of them in the sense that I have to beat them all to win the pot. It's early, I have no chips in the pot. Why risk what is at best a flip. .

I totally had this argument awhile back only the scenario was pocket Jacks with someone AI in front of you, and 2 left to follow you that have already 4 bet the pot. I was told in no uncertain terms that I had to call. You are NEVER winning this argument with the WMD's as your hole cards.

Here is the thread...

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ne-t68760.html

Good luck man, your gonna need it.

By the way, if you agree with me on the other situation please let me know. Then the score will be 742-2, I'm catching up. LOL

Originally Posted by gop2004

against one guy, Sure, folding AA PF is overwhelmingly a bad move. But not in the situation I laid out. I believe I said I faced a standard bet, an AI raise and a call of the AI raise. I'm facing at least 2 and possible 3 opponents.

AA is way ahead of any one of them. But it is not ahead of 3 of them in the sense that I have to beat them all to win the pot. It's early, I have no chips in the pot. Why risk what is at best a flip.

Like I also said this is not something that occurs often. I should also clarify my original response. I said

against multi opps i avoid an early all in like the plague.

I should have specified PF. If I have a nuttish hand after the flop of course I'm looking to punish.

I actually agree with you here. It's very unlikely that the three other people have A-K so are drawing dead. They have live cards and at least one of your opponents probably has one of our outs.

To those who say that it doesn't matter because we have A-A I want to ask HOW are we going to improve our hand with 5 cards coming and the huge potential of only 1 ace live? Catch running flush/straight?

Andrew, check out the other thread about the Jacks, whats your opinion there, maybe I will have 3 votes!!!

I'll be posting it in the other thread but the cliff notes is going to be I'd fold.

Originally Posted by gop2004

against one guy, Sure, folding AA PF is overwhelmingly a bad move. But not in the situation I laid out. I believe I said I faced a standard bet, an AI raise and a call of the AI raise. I'm facing at least 2 and possible 3 opponents.

AA is way ahead of any one of them. But it is not ahead of 3 of them in the sense that I have to beat them all to win the pot. It's early, I have no chips in the pot. Why risk what is at best a flip.

Like I also said this is not something that occurs often. I should also clarify my original response. I said

against multi opps i avoid an early all in like the plague.

I should have specified PF. If I have a nuttish hand after the flop of course I'm looking to punish.

just wow. for you guys who think this is actually sound reasoning , do you own POKERSTOVE. run some numbers and show me a example where you have LESS than 60% equity vs 2 hands , or a spot where you have less than 50% equity vs 3....Please because this is the most ridic. stuff i've ever heard. NO ONE'S EDGE IS BIG ENOUGH TO FOLD AA PREFLOP EARLY IN A SNG , and this folding AA rubbish is not even comparable to the JJ situation.. this thread is honestly making me sick.

Originally Posted by Andrew

I actually agree with you here. It's very unlikely that the three other people have A-K so are drawing dead. They have live cards and at least one of your opponents probably has one of our outs.

To those who say that it doesn't matter because we have A-A I want to ask HOW are we going to improve our hand with 5 cards coming and the huge potential of only 1 ace live? Catch running flush/straight?

First - AK is not drawing dead vs AA. Not sure what makes you think it is.
Seconded - Why on earth is it unlikely to have AK but it's LIKELY someone has a Ace????? edit: i see what your saying here that it's unlikely all 3 have AK...ok

Third - Why are we so worried about improving our hand?????? Please run pokerstove calcs vs 2 random hands and find a spot where we do not have at least 60%+ Equity , Maybe there is 2 hands where we don't , i only ran a few simulations and I'm not gonna be bothered to spend more than 2 minutes looking because you are both sooooo wrong about folding AA and it is just flat out silly to do so.

The JJ thread is interesting. But not an exact analogy. That play was a raise to isolate against an open push. Hero faced one opponent. In mine I'm assuming 3 and possible more villians. I'd like to see a table of odds where AA is evaluated against multi opponents with random hands. At some point there is a cutoff where AA is no longer in front against the field. I've seen such a table but i think it was in a book.

Andrew put it much more mathematically than I did but he's essentially got my reasoning.

Actually Andrew and GOP2004, this is the one that got heated. whats your take on this one.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...er-t68823.html

Hey, if I was right all the time I wouldn't still be playing 10 and 20 SNG.

Because it is a SNG there is more than math guiding our actions. Or there should be imho. I'm happy to play that hand that way the once or twice a year it occurs. If that's a gaping grotesque leak I'm fine with that. I'm sure I have lots of leaks. I've said it before, if poker could be reduced to math and math only then bots would rule the game. They don't and it cant.

My comments RE: AA seem to have gotten this thread off topic. Oh well. Jack Sawyer originally asked if early gambles should be avoided. I say yes. I'll be more careful in how I try to stimulate the discussion next time.

Originally Posted by DetroitHusling101

Originally Posted by Andrew

I actually agree with you here. It's very unlikely that the three other people have A-K so are drawing dead. They have live cards and at least one of your opponents probably has one of our outs.

To those who say that it doesn't matter because we have A-A I want to ask HOW are we going to improve our hand with 5 cards coming and the huge potential of only 1 ace live? Catch running flush/straight?

First - AK is not drawing dead vs AA. Not sure what makes you think it is.
Seconded - Why on earth is it unlikely to have AK but it's LIKELY someone has a Ace????? edit: i see what your saying here that it's unlikely all 3 have AK...ok

Third - Why are we so worried about improving our hand?????? Please run pokerstove calcs vs 2 random hands and find a spot where we do not have at least 60%+ Equity , Maybe there is 2 hands where we don't , i only ran a few simulations and I'm not gonna be bothered to spend more than 2 minutes looking because you are both sooooo wrong about folding AA and it is just flat out silly to do so.

I haven't had too much sleep so I'm probably throwing a few ideas into one big cauldron.

Just to be a smartass. AA vs AA vs KK has a 40% vs 40% vs 20% equity.

In regards to the A-K drawing dead I meant in regards to it being an AK vs AK vs AA hand. (Aces are 90% odds to win).

Honestly, in a cash game I would put all my money in with aces with probably the entire table in there with me. But I think the fact it's a tournament shouldn't be over looked.

The reason I brought up improving our hand?

Long term Aces will trump ANY two cards, everyone knows that. Same as long term AK can't win shit against 2-2. Now if you're in a tournament (where you can't reload) and 1 person goes all in then by all means get your money in there. Potentially 3 players, sure. But why risk OUR tournament life short-term 5 cards vs more than 1 opponent when we can beat the table by our skill edge? That's where my (tired) thinking is going.

Deuce,

That situation is closer because you have so many to act after you. It's all interesting. This kinda discussion is why I come back. I see they convinced you and truly I can see why, but I still like Andrews comments RE: Cash vs. Tourney. Once again, he is more eloquent than me.

Originally Posted by Deuce Blue

Actually Andrew and GOP2004, this is the one that got heated. whats your take on this one.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...er-t68823.html

I replied.

Gop,

I mentioned something in my post in the thread quoted above that you brought up here. It's not always about the math. I think that too many times people fall back onto the math because it's easier than making a decision based on your "gut' and/or logic. Especially with the focus on ranges and how to react to them.

I think my computer has gone wonky! I keep ending up here where people say they would fold AA.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but I am never folding AA pre-flop in a SnG, EVER.

Originally Posted by Andrew

But why risk OUR tournament life short-term 5 cards vs more than 1 opponent when we can beat the table by our skill edge? That's where my (tired) thinking is going.

Can I just ask why you think you have a skill edge, when you are making such a big mistake by folding AA?

Originally Posted by Rage2100

Originally Posted by Andrew

But why risk OUR tournament life short-term 5 cards vs more than 1 opponent when we can beat the table by our skill edge? That's where my (tired) thinking is going.

Can I just ask why you think you have a skill edge, when you are making such a big mistake by folding AA?

Because in tournaments I think there are certain parts which one person can "outskill' another.

*Picking spots to get your money in as a shorty.
*Being able to out play our opponents with the worst hand.
*Playing big stack poker.
And of course other, more specific situations.

I would be sacrificing the potential gain of putting all my money into the pot with multiple players for the chance of maximizing my potential gain later on down the line. There isn't a time I would NEVER fold aces in this spot, but there ARE times I WOULD.

You want to fold AA now so that we can blind down to a short stack and get our money in with 76o instead?

Also, I don't believe anyone who folds AA here is capable of outplaying his opponents with the worst hand. If I had to guess, you've never bluffed in your life.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

You want to fold AA now so that we can blind down to a short stack and get our money in with 76o instead?

So this is the only situation where we have a chance of winning the tournament? If we fold here we may as well give up the game? Riiiiiiiight.

Also, I don't believe anyone who folds AA here is capable of outplaying his opponents with the worst hand. If I had to guess, you've never bluffed in your life.

Nice guess. See you at the tables, then.

lol FOLDED AA PREFLOP IN A SNG IS A HUGE MAJOR OOPSY LEAK PERIOD.
do you guys own sngwiz ? since your so interested in the math behind it.
with 2 shoves in front. folded aa is like -8 EV AND BIGJOE/SPACEGRAVY'S EDGE IS NOT EVEN THE SIGNIFICANT IN A $1 SNG. Please your arguement is nonsense. Keep folding AA ,

and sorry about my tone/way of talking/typing im usually not one to flame but this is just getting on my nerves like no other.

Get pokerstove, get sngwiz, get whatever it takes. You cannot fold AA PF in an SNG. It just cant be done. There is no possible valid reason for doing so (outside of satellites).

I would much rather have a huge edge to triple up with a full stack, than have a small edge to steal blinds with a short stack later.

Originally Posted by gop2004

Deuce,

That situation is closer because you have so many to act after you. It's all interesting. This kinda discussion is why I come back. I see they convinced you and truly I can see why, but I still like Andrews comments RE: Cash vs. Tourney. Once again, he is more eloquent than me.

No one convinced me on either of the J-J hands. I just gave up. BUT, for the record, I'm not ever folding aces unless it is some really weird bubble thing with 100 variables that lean me towards it.

The J-J ones though, I lay them both down. SNAP FOLD BABY!!!

have i laid off AA in SNGs where you can count on 5 players open shoving the first hand? yes. do i think its right? NOOOOOOOOOOOO! will i do it again? maybe. will it be right? NOOOOOOOOO! laying off AA in SNGs because 3+ players have gone AI already IS a leak. period. at this point, i think you have decided to play "for a cash," not "for the win."

you may not be 50/50 to win the hand, but you still have the overwhelmingly largest slice of the pf equity pie. STICK IT IN, and take the results.

do you want to bow out with AA early and watch some fucker scoop up 4X full stacks when you could have had 5X?

if we have an equity edge, and KNOW it, arent we supposed to be trying to get it AI no matter what game/type we are playing?

I think some people confuse the concept of an edge in SNG as being purely playing good p/f shortstack poker, whereas there are a lot of edges we can have and making good calls is another one.

Taking flips early in an STT is not that bad since you are a ways away from the money. But, STTs are different in the fact that you are trying to money each time you buy-in. So, flipping isn't as profitable in the long run compared to MTTs. Survival is key and making it to the bubble is important. Without reads, folding AK or JJ early for all your chips is +EV in most situations. Folding AA to a 9 way all in on the first hand is terrible IMO.

I've been on holidays for three weeks, and boy is there some fuzzy logic going on here.

1. Taking early flips - It is a very basic principle of SNGs that chips you win are worth less than chips you lose since even if you win all of the chips, you only win 50% of the prize pool.

Using ICM as an example, when everybody has their starting 1500 chips are worth 11.1% of the prize pool (ie. 1/9 of the prize pool). Now let's say the SB gets it AI against the BB and the BB loses. SB now has 3000 chips, however these 3000 chips are only worth 20.3% of the prize pool. Therefore, even though SB has doubled up, his/her share of the prize pool only increased by 83%. Putting this another way, SB needs to be at least 54.6% to win against BB to make this a good move.

What's also interesting is that the other seven players' equity just went up to 11.4% of the prize pool even though they did absolutely nothing but fold. That's why when I see two players getting it AI preflop first hand with hands like AJ and 66 I thank them for handing me some of their equity, regardless of who wins.

2. Folding AA preflop - never ever ever do this, no matter how many AIs you have in front of you. Unless, as bjsaust said, it's a satellite with a strange payout structure, AA always has enough equity against whatever they might have to make calling +EV. Also, don't forget that the more players AI in front of you, the better pot odds you are receiving on your call.

I could make a good argument for never ever folding KK preflop in a SNG too.

Tai,

Is the fact this is a SnG and not a MTT the main reason why a perceived "edge" isn't really as big as I'm thinking it is? I guess I'm not really focusing on the fact it's a small player pool and instead using the idea of a big MTT with plenty of chances to make moves/have cards later on.

Actually you should be more likely to take flips early on in an MTT. You need to accumulate chips in an MTT more than in an STT, and pot odds should be ruling your decisions early.

So you don't subscribe to the adage of surviving for a certain amount of time (online, most likely the first hour) and then making moves when the blinds and antes are there to give your bets more leverage?

I subscribe to the adage of making +EV plays. That means playing tight early and looking for steals later and using good p/f when short. It doesnt however mean giving up +EV spots where pot odds justify the play.

I can see exactly what you're saying.

To be honest, bj, our differencing in opinion is the fact that I believe that there are a lot of decisions in poker that are not as cut-and-dry as they are if we only use maths to decide what we do.

As a poker player, myself, I can not bring myself to live by the maths, die by the maths. I think it's a much bigger game than that.

Originally Posted by Andrew

To be honest, bj, our differencing in opinion is the fact that I believe that there are a lot of decisions in poker that are not as cut-and-dry as they are if we only use maths to decide what we do.

As a poker player, myself, I can not bring myself to live by the maths, die by the maths. I think it's a much bigger game than that.

Everything in poker comes down to expected value. Any judgement call that you're making comes down to making an assessment as to the expected value of a certain move. Any other consideration is extraneous.

5,063,422 games 75.772 secs 66,824 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.548% 39.21% 03.34% 1985542 168869.33 { AA }
Hand 1: 10.160% 08.72% 01.44% 441616 72833.17 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 11.357% 10.21% 01.14% 517068 57973.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 12.023% 11.08% 00.95% 560817 47950.50 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 4: 12.011% 11.29% 00.72% 571878 36314.33 { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 5: 11.901% 11.69% 00.22% 591687 10931.17 { random }

5:1 on your money with 42.5% equity. Andrew, gop and all others who think about folding AA pf: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pot_odds

When you fold AA pf, the poker gods club a baby seal.

Originally Posted by Andrew

As a poker player, myself, I can not bring myself to live by the maths, die by the maths. I think it's a much bigger game than that.

Poker is ALL about maths, but if your variables are wrong, the result will be wrong.

Coccobill finally alluded to what I've been thinking reading this whole thread. Insanely nitty poker players (where did you all come from?), when you push AA vs 3 other players YOU HAVE A 50% CHANCE OF QUADRUPLING UP. Quadrupling up! Do you know how good a position this puts you in? You've just made almost half the chips in the game!!!

Poker is all about risk vs reward. You very, very seldom get a risk/reward ratio so massively in your favour. What other plays ARE you happy making? I am the king of pushing rather than calling a push but my god.

And the guy who said he'd fold AA "to a read" - you, sir, are a buffoon.

I think part of the problem in this and some other threads recently, is people keep talking about their "edge'. It seems they only focus on the edge of understanding p/f poker. Whilst that is a big edge in low stakes SNGs, and a big edge at any level against opps who dont understand it, its far from our only edge.

One way of looking at an edge is: the ability to recognise and make plays with positive expectation. Thats what p/f poker is about, making +EV pushes (and folding otherwise). However, a good player has a lot of other edges. Another big one is the edge we get from knowing when to make +EV calls. If we have an "edge" postflop, that simply means that postflop we're comfortable making +EV plays.

As Taipan said, STTs are a game of thin edges. You cant afford to give up any edge.

Just because you're comfortable with p/f poker, thats no excuse to blind down until you get to that stage so you can exploit that edge. You should be looking for and taking +EV moves whenever and wherever you can find them.

Originally Posted by bjsaust

As Taipan said, STTs are a game of thin edges. You cant afford to give up any edge.

Whilst taking the risk of confusing the situation even more, you can afford to give up some very slight edges if you firmly believe that you have a skill advantage over the rest of the table. For example, first hand of the tourney, it's folded to you in the SB with 88, you make it 80 to go and BB shoves all-in and shows you AKo face up. Do you call?

According to Pokerstove, 88 is 55.2% to win against AKo and according to ICM we need to be 54.95% to win to make it an +EV call. I might consider passing up this 0.25% edge if I suspect I have a skill advantage over the rest of the table since it's very early in the tournament and there may well be more +EV spots later. However, if the tourney was filled with regulars I would probably call since there may not be more +EV spots later.

However, this "edge" excuse obviously does not count when we are 60% or more to win and we only need to be ~53% to win to make it +EV (as in the JJ example).

I nearly made a similar comment, but decided it would confuse things too much , If something seems very slightly +EV, then sure, use your judgement.

Well, this discussion has become quite odd. IMO, if you fold AA preflop in a NL SNG, you probably should not be playing NL. That said, when half the table goes all-in early in a SNG, the one with AA typically is gone. AA vs anything heads up has a great shot. But against a range... not so much. The edge is over as soon as the flop hits. I'm not a math-geek player, so I'll leave the actual stats to those who are. But I have gut stats. And AA is likely to lose against several opponents. I still would not fold. If I win, I'm in a great position to win the SNG. If I'm out, I play another. So be it.

My heart no longer beats wildly when I see rockets in my hand. I have lost more money with them than any other hand. So my first thought is... uh-oh, what fresh hell will I see? But ya just have to play them, and play them hard.

Originally Posted by Dooper

My heart no longer beats wildly when I see rockets in my hand. I have lost more money with them than any other hand.

You are probably just remembering the times when you do lose with them. When you get AA, you initially think you should win the hand, and when you lose, it sticks in your mind more. If you really are losing more money with AA than any other hand, you are doing something seriously wrong.

Welcome to FTR by the way!

AA is far and away my biggest winning hand.

AA may not be an overwhelming favorite multi-way, but its still favored over any other hand, so its still much more likely to win than any other hand out there.

Originally Posted by Andrew

Originally Posted by gop2004

against one guy, Sure, folding AA PF is overwhelmingly a bad move. But not in the situation I laid out. I believe I said I faced a standard bet, an AI raise and a call of the AI raise. I'm facing at least 2 and possible 3 opponents.

AA is way ahead of any one of them. But it is not ahead of 3 of them in the sense that I have to beat them all to win the pot. It's early, I have no chips in the pot. Why risk what is at best a flip.

Like I also said this is not something that occurs often. I should also clarify my original response. I said

against multi opps i avoid an early all in like the plague.

I should have specified PF. If I have a nuttish hand after the flop of course I'm looking to punish.

I actually agree with you here. It's very unlikely that the three other people have A-K so are drawing dead. They have live cards and at least one of your opponents probably has one of our outs.

To those who say that it doesn't matter because we have A-A I want to ask HOW are we going to improve our hand with 5 cards coming and the huge potential of only 1 ace live? Catch running flush/straight?

spoonitnow: i think i need to start playing sngs
spoonitnow: clearly that's where all of the retards have gone

Originally Posted by Dooper

My heart no longer beats wildly when I see rockets in my hand. I have lost more money with them than any other hand.

LOL GODDAMN I can always count on the SNG forum for a laugh.

Originally Posted by CoccoBill

When you fold AA pf, the poker gods club a baby seal.

You are very right.

However, it must also be said that there are some very, very, extremely rare situations in which you will have to fold AA pf.

There are some. But in layman's terms, never fold AA pf. Ever.

bump

I haven't posted here for a while, but lets take this to its insane extreme. Suppose you are in the BB holding AA, 1st hand of a SnG, UTG goes all in and the rest of the table call. So everyone's all in, and action back to you. Call with best hand, or Fold and be heads-up.
Andy

Originally Posted by AndyB

I haven't posted here for a while, but lets take this to its insane extreme. Suppose you are in the BB holding AA, 1st hand of a SnG, UTG goes all in and the rest of the table call. So everyone's all in, and action back to you. Call with best hand, or Fold and be heads-up.
Andy

Instacall. If your hand holds, you've won the whole thing! No way do you not have enough equity here to call.