ICM - what it is and what it does

**CrunchyNuts** · 08-24-2005 04:22 AM

By request, I'ma try to lay down a more in depth explanation of ICM and what it could mean for your poker play. As a disclaimer, I've never used ICM to analyze my game, I'm not really working on the math of my game at this point - I don't feel the stakes I'm playing at are skillful enough to merit too much effort there (playing 10+1). That said, math rules, bow to its might.

ICM stands for Independant Chip Model...don't worry about the name, not worth it. First we need to look at what the model is trying to...model. It's one of many attempts to try to equate tournament chips to cash. Like the rest of them, it's not perfect...there's way too many factors involved to get an exact answer to what your stack is worth - player skill, style matchup, despiration by very short stacks, tilt...stuff like that is just too arbitrary and complicated to put into a model. So...assuming equal skill, enough skill that straight style isn't much of an effect, noone's very short stacked (like 3xBB) or tilting, ICM does pretty well at equating tourney stacks to cash.

The idea behind the model is that every chip is a ticket to a lottery. To figure out who gets first place, you pick a ticket at random and that person wins. Take their tickets out and draw again for 2nd, and repeat that for 3rd, ect 'til your out of the money. Now, we all know that's now how poker works, but remember, this is a model...a guess. Let's look at an example.

3 players, stack sizes: 5k 4k 1k
Each person's chance of winning 1st is their stack/10k, their chance of getting picked in the first lottery. To figure out who'd come in second given who comes in 1st, their chance is stack/(sum of remaining stacks). A whole bunch of multiplication later, we end up with our estimated equities.

1/2 - chance of 5k winning
2/5 - chance of 4k winning
1/10 - chance of 1k winning

If 5k wins:
4/5 - chance of 4k in 2nd
1/5 - chance of 1k in 2nd

If 4k wins:
5/6 - chance of 5k in 2nd
1/6 - chance of 1k in 2nd

If 1k wins:
5/9 - chance of 5k in 2nd
4/9 - chance of 4k in 2nd

Let's go with a $100 pot, to make things easy on me, with standard payout of 50/30/20

Code:

Equity of the 5k stack:
(Chance of 1st) + (Equity if 4k wins) + (Equity if 1k wins)
(1/2 * 50) + 2/5 * (5/6 * 30 + 1/6 * 20) + 1/10 * (5/9 * 30 + 4/9 * 20)
(1/2 * 50) + 2/5 * (25 + 10/3) + 1/10 * (50/3 + 80/9)
25 + 2/5 * 28 1/3 + 1/10 * 25 5/9
25 + 11 1/3 + 2 5/9
$38.89

Equity of the 4k stack:
(Chance of 1st) + (Equity if 5k wins) + (Equity if 1k wins)
(2/5 * 50) + .5 * (4/5 * 30 + 1/5 * 20) + 1/10 * (4/9 * 30 + 5/9 * 20)
(2/5 * 50) + .5 * (24 + 4) + 1/10 * (13 1/3 + 11 1/9)
20 + .5 * 28 + 1/10 * 24 4/9
20 + 14 + 2 4/9
$36.44

Equity of the 1k stack:
(Chance of 1st) + (Equity if 5k wins) + (Equity if 4k wins)
(1/10 * 50) + 1/2 * (1/5 * 30 + 4/5 * 20) + 2/5 * (1/6 * 30 + 5/6 * 20)
(1/10 * 50) + 1/2 * (6 + 16) + 2/5 * (5 + 16 2/3)
5 + 1/2 * 22 + 2/5 * 21 2/3
5 + 11 + 8 2/3
$24.66

So what we got is:
5k: $38.89
4k: $36.44
1k: $24.66

Which makes some sense - everyone's got at least $20 equity 'cause they're ITM now, and the 5k is slightly better off then the 4k, and both are way better off then 1k.

For a good excersise that'll point out an interesting aspect of this model, figure out the stack equities for 5k 2.5k 2.5k (easier, since the 2.5ks will be the same (please don't ask why, if you don't know why I don't know how you got this far)). After that you'll have the right to laugh at VQ for oversimplifying the model. (a reference to this post)

So when does this become useful? Well, like usual, when trying to figure out the $EV of a move. If you can roughly determine your % chance of winning a hand, you can figure out your stack equity if you win and if you lose, weight those by the % chance to win, and figure out if that's better then if you don't make that action (this is most useful when considering pushes 'cause future action doesn't happen). This can result in some non-intuitive results, especially on the button.

**vqc** · 08-24-2005 04:31 AM

Thank you for this wonderful post.
Could u please tell me wat u meant by that vq encore thing in the other topic? Its been driving me nuts!

The other thing is.
I use ICM and i play the 10+1s.

**daluchy** · 08-24-2005 08:37 AM

I totally get the whole concept and I've been trying to give it a thought during SnG's, I just don't get how to apply it well enough.

Like I guess trying figuring out the approx. stack equity of if I fold and if I call win/lose/draw vs. my % to win the hand. I can't make a good enough estimate fast enough to figure out what I should do.

I know it's more of learning certain situations enough that you can tell if it's +$EV or not, but I can't even figure that out yet. I wish I could because these Turbo SnG's are about making good pushes when the blinds get big.

**arkana** · 08-24-2005 09:47 AM

I have an ICM spreadsheet that I put together that I am willing to share if anyone is interested. Pretty simple stuff, on one sheet you can enter stack sizes for up to 10 people as well as a prize distribution (unfortunately only top 3 places supported at the moment) and it will tell you what you their probabilities for finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd using ICM as well as their EV. On a second sheet you can enter the stack sizes for when you (a) fold, (b) call and win and (c) call and lose as well as your % chance of winning the hand and see what your fold EV and call EV is.

**CrunchyNuts** · 08-24-2005 01:38 PM

Originally Posted by vqchuang

Could u please tell me wat u meant by that vq encore thing in the other topic? Its been driving me nuts!

Originally Posted by vqchuang

I use ICM and i play the 10+1s.

That's what I meant...10+1s aren't very skillful, throws a pretty big wrench in the works when you break the assumption that all players are of equal skill *and* the assumption that style adapts. The extreme example is a table where on the bubble noone is willing to call your AI with anything but AA KK...in all likelyhood your stack is going to go way up 'til the bubble's over...which you could model with ICM, but I bet that's not how you use it. (That actually sounds like an interesting case to study...I might come back to that) I've been at those tables on 10+1, it was great.

daluchy - the easiest way to use it is to analyse your <=5 handed play in a tourney with it to see if it agrees with your moves. Do that enough and you should have a good idea of if it'll agree with what you're about to do when you're sitting at the table.

**daluchy** · 08-24-2005 07:52 PM

That sounds good. See what plays of mine are actually correct so I can keep doing those and lettting go of others. I've been on a little downturn lately so now is about a good time to look into that.

Well since I'm doing that, I maybe interested in that ICM Spreadsheet Arkana. I'll drop you a PM in a bit if you don't read this.

**vqc** · 08-24-2005 07:59 PM

www.sitngo-analyzer.com
THE ultimate ICM analyzer.

costs a hefty 79 bucks tho.

**Trikflow77** · 08-24-2005 08:28 PM

79 bucks is peanuts to what it will earn you....... every serious sng player should have this progam.

**vqc** · 08-24-2005 08:29 PM

im sorry trik but we're not high rollers like u.

**Rockymv** · 08-24-2005 08:31 PM

VQ: That program looks awesome...does anyone know of any free ones?

**vqc** · 08-24-2005 08:32 PM

not one like this.

this thing really really makes ICM calculations really really simple.

**Trikflow77** · 08-24-2005 08:43 PM

if you have even a 450 br, you should buy this program and i promise it will pay for itself really quick. If you really want to improve your game, this program is a much better option than reviewing hand history from other players. You can load each sng you play and find out where you missed +ev pushes and where you make -ev pushes. It is awsome.

**PokerPatNEU** · 08-24-2005 08:44 PM

It would be awesomer if it could watch PS, PP, UB SnGs while you played them and told you "PUSH!" or "FOLD!"

**Trikflow77** · 08-24-2005 08:48 PM

it would but I wouldnt learn as much from it, reviewing hands after the fact helps ingrain it in my play.

**vqc** · 08-24-2005 08:50 PM

ya it definitely does, Iv been running all my summer SNGs through it and its awesome.
AND YES TRIKFLOW AJ IS +$EV!

did you get the version where it calculates you taking the BB up the ass the next ahnd and considers that when its calculating ur equity if u fold?

**daluchy** · 08-24-2005 10:23 PM

I downloaded the free trial thingy of that before. It looks sweet! I need some more BR to go get it though, darn it.

**DaNutsInYoEye** · 09-25-2005 08:33 AM

http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html

http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php

**planner** · 08-14-2008 07:11 PM

is there any free icm programs out there? or is sitngo-analyzer still the best investment?

**pokertemp** · 07-12-2009 06:58 AM

Crunchy, do you still have that ICM spreadsheet? I tried to PM you directly but it wouldnt let me without sufficent posts. I would love to get a copy of it, if your still willing to share. Thank you.

**taipan168** · 07-12-2009 09:58 AM

Originally Posted by pokertemp

Crunchy, do you still have that ICM spreadsheet? I tried to PM you directly but it wouldnt let me without sufficent posts. I would love to get a copy of it, if your still willing to share. Thank you.

Not sure if Crunchy is still around, the original post was more than four years ago. I have a standalone ICM calculator and an ICM spreadsheet (not sure if it's the same one as Crunchy put together) which you can download from here however.

**revolvingiris** · 07-13-2009 03:04 AM

tai, thank you for posting the link to your ICM spreadsheet! Was this yours or did you find it OL somewhere?

**taipan168** · 07-13-2009 03:31 AM

Originally Posted by revolvingiris

tai, thank you for posting the link to your ICM spreadsheet! Was this yours or did you find it OL somewhere?

No problems! I didn't put it together, somebody sent it to me a few years ago.

**revolvingiris** · 07-13-2009 07:40 PM

Either way, its awesome! Thank you again for posting.

08-24-2005 04:22 AM #1
CrunchyNuts View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date May 2005 Posts 469	ICM - what it is and what it does By request, I'ma try to lay down a more in depth explanation of ICM and what it could mean for your poker play. As a disclaimer, I've never used ICM to analyze my game, I'm not really working on the math of my game at this point - I don't feel the stakes I'm playing at are skillful enough to merit too much effort there (playing 10+1). That said, math rules, bow to its might. ICM stands for Independant Chip Model...don't worry about the name, not worth it. First we need to look at what the model is trying to...model. It's one of many attempts to try to equate tournament chips to cash. Like the rest of them, it's not perfect...there's way too many factors involved to get an exact answer to what your stack is worth - player skill, style matchup, despiration by very short stacks, tilt...stuff like that is just too arbitrary and complicated to put into a model. So...assuming equal skill, enough skill that straight style isn't much of an effect, noone's very short stacked (like 3xBB) or tilting, ICM does pretty well at equating tourney stacks to cash. The idea behind the model is that every chip is a ticket to a lottery. To figure out who gets first place, you pick a ticket at random and that person wins. Take their tickets out and draw again for 2nd, and repeat that for 3rd, ect 'til your out of the money. Now, we all know that's now how poker works, but remember, this is a model...a guess. Let's look at an example. 3 players, stack sizes: 5k 4k 1k Each person's chance of winning 1st is their stack/10k, their chance of getting picked in the first lottery. To figure out who'd come in second given who comes in 1st, their chance is stack/(sum of remaining stacks). A whole bunch of multiplication later, we end up with our estimated equities. 1/2 - chance of 5k winning 2/5 - chance of 4k winning 1/10 - chance of 1k winning If 5k wins: 4/5 - chance of 4k in 2nd 1/5 - chance of 1k in 2nd If 4k wins: 5/6 - chance of 5k in 2nd 1/6 - chance of 1k in 2nd If 1k wins: 5/9 - chance of 5k in 2nd 4/9 - chance of 4k in 2nd Let's go with a $100 pot, to make things easy on me, with standard payout of 50/30/20 Code: Equity of the 5k stack: (Chance of 1st) + (Equity if 4k wins) + (Equity if 1k wins) (1/2 * 50) + 2/5 * (5/6 * 30 + 1/6 * 20) + 1/10 * (5/9 * 30 + 4/9 * 20) (1/2 * 50) + 2/5 * (25 + 10/3) + 1/10 * (50/3 + 80/9) 25 + 2/5 * 28 1/3 + 1/10 * 25 5/9 25 + 11 1/3 + 2 5/9 $38.89 Equity of the 4k stack: (Chance of 1st) + (Equity if 5k wins) + (Equity if 1k wins) (2/5 * 50) + .5 * (4/5 * 30 + 1/5 * 20) + 1/10 * (4/9 * 30 + 5/9 * 20) (2/5 * 50) + .5 * (24 + 4) + 1/10 * (13 1/3 + 11 1/9) 20 + .5 * 28 + 1/10 * 24 4/9 20 + 14 + 2 4/9 $36.44 Equity of the 1k stack: (Chance of 1st) + (Equity if 5k wins) + (Equity if 4k wins) (1/10 * 50) + 1/2 * (1/5 * 30 + 4/5 * 20) + 2/5 * (1/6 * 30 + 5/6 * 20) (1/10 * 50) + 1/2 * (6 + 16) + 2/5 * (5 + 16 2/3) 5 + 1/2 * 22 + 2/5 * 21 2/3 5 + 11 + 8 2/3 $24.66 So what we got is: 5k: $38.89 4k: $36.44 1k: $24.66 Which makes some sense - everyone's got at least $20 equity 'cause they're ITM now, and the 5k is slightly better off then the 4k, and both are way better off then 1k. For a good excersise that'll point out an interesting aspect of this model, figure out the stack equities for 5k 2.5k 2.5k (easier, since the 2.5ks will be the same (please don't ask why, if you don't know why I don't know how you got this far)). After that you'll have the right to laugh at VQ for oversimplifying the model. (a reference to this post) So when does this become useful? Well, like usual, when trying to figure out the $EV of a move. If you can roughly determine your % chance of winning a hand, you can figure out your stack equity if you win and if you lose, weight those by the % chance to win, and figure out if that's better then if you don't make that action (this is most useful when considering pushes 'cause future action doesn't happen). This can result in some non-intuitive results, especially on the button.
	Up my bankroll - buy Saints Row.
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08-24-2005 04:31 AM #2
vqc View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jan 2005 Posts 6,560	Thank you for this wonderful post. Could u please tell me wat u meant by that vq encore thing in the other topic? Its been driving me nuts! The other thing is. I use ICM and i play the 10+1s.

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08-24-2005 08:37 AM #3
daluchy View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date May 2005 Posts 780	I totally get the whole concept and I've been trying to give it a thought during SnG's, I just don't get how to apply it well enough. Like I guess trying figuring out the approx. stack equity of if I fold and if I call win/lose/draw vs. my % to win the hand. I can't make a good enough estimate fast enough to figure out what I should do. I know it's more of learning certain situations enough that you can tell if it's +$EV or not, but I can't even figure that out yet. I wish I could because these Turbo SnG's are about making good pushes when the blinds get big.
	pulling a courtiebee pŏŏl-ĭng ā kôrt-ē-bē (verb phrase): 1. overvaluing mid pocket pairs 2. knowing you should fold, but donkishly calling or raising anyway
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08-24-2005 09:47 AM #4
arkana View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Mar 2005 Posts 1,393	I have an ICM spreadsheet that I put together that I am willing to share if anyone is interested. Pretty simple stuff, on one sheet you can enter stack sizes for up to 10 people as well as a prize distribution (unfortunately only top 3 places supported at the moment) and it will tell you what you their probabilities for finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd using ICM as well as their EV. On a second sheet you can enter the stack sizes for when you (a) fold, (b) call and win and (c) call and lose as well as your % chance of winning the hand and see what your fold EV and call EV is.

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08-24-2005 01:38 PM #5
CrunchyNuts View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date May 2005 Posts 469	Originally Posted by vqchuang Could u please tell me wat u meant by that vq encore thing in the other topic? Its been driving me nuts! Originally Posted by vqchuang I use ICM and i play the 10+1s. That's what I meant...10+1s aren't very skillful, throws a pretty big wrench in the works when you break the assumption that all players are of equal skill and the assumption that style adapts. The extreme example is a table where on the bubble noone is willing to call your AI with anything but AA KK...in all likelyhood your stack is going to go way up 'til the bubble's over...which you could model with ICM, but I bet that's not how you use it. (That actually sounds like an interesting case to study...I might come back to that) I've been at those tables on 10+1, it was great. daluchy - the easiest way to use it is to analyse your <=5 handed play in a tourney with it to see if it agrees with your moves. Do that enough and you should have a good idea of if it'll agree with what you're about to do when you're sitting at the table.
	Up my bankroll - buy Saints Row.
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ICM - what it is and what it does

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ICM - what it is and what it does

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08-24-2005 07:52 PM #6
daluchy View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date May 2005 Posts 780	That sounds good. See what plays of mine are actually correct so I can keep doing those and lettting go of others. I've been on a little downturn lately so now is about a good time to look into that. Well since I'm doing that, I maybe interested in that ICM Spreadsheet Arkana. I'll drop you a PM in a bit if you don't read this.
	pulling a courtiebee pŏŏl-ĭng ā kôrt-ē-bē (verb phrase): 1. overvaluing mid pocket pairs 2. knowing you should fold, but donkishly calling or raising anyway
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08-24-2005 07:59 PM #7
vqc View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jan 2005 Posts 6,560	www.sitngo-analyzer.com THE ultimate ICM analyzer. costs a hefty 79 bucks tho.

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08-24-2005 08:28 PM #8
Trikflow77 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jan 2005 Posts 2,490 Location im so asian	79 bucks is peanuts to what it will earn you....... every serious sng player should have this progam.

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08-24-2005 08:29 PM #9
vqc View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jan 2005 Posts 6,560	im sorry trik but we're not high rollers like u.

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08-24-2005 08:31 PM #10
Rockymv View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Aug 2004 Posts 1,183	VQ: That program looks awesome...does anyone know of any free ones?

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08-24-2005 08:32 PM #11
vqc View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jan 2005 Posts 6,560	not one like this. this thing really really makes ICM calculations really really simple.

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08-24-2005 08:43 PM #12
Trikflow77 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jan 2005 Posts 2,490 Location im so asian	if you have even a 450 br, you should buy this program and i promise it will pay for itself really quick. If you really want to improve your game, this program is a much better option than reviewing hand history from other players. You can load each sng you play and find out where you missed +ev pushes and where you make -ev pushes. It is awsome.

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08-24-2005 08:44 PM #13
PokerPatNEU View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Mar 2005 Posts 821	It would be awesomer if it could watch PS, PP, UB SnGs while you played them and told you "PUSH!" or "FOLD!"

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08-24-2005 08:48 PM #14
Trikflow77 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jan 2005 Posts 2,490 Location im so asian	it would but I wouldnt learn as much from it, reviewing hands after the fact helps ingrain it in my play.

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08-24-2005 08:50 PM #15
vqc View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jan 2005 Posts 6,560	ya it definitely does, Iv been running all my summer SNGs through it and its awesome. AND YES TRIKFLOW AJ IS +$EV! did you get the version where it calculates you taking the BB up the ass the next ahnd and considers that when its calculating ur equity if u fold?

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08-24-2005 10:23 PM #16
daluchy View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date May 2005 Posts 780	I downloaded the free trial thingy of that before. It looks sweet! I need some more BR to go get it though, darn it.
	pulling a courtiebee pŏŏl-ĭng ā kôrt-ē-bē (verb phrase): 1. overvaluing mid pocket pairs 2. knowing you should fold, but donkishly calling or raising anyway
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09-25-2005 08:33 AM #17
DaNutsInYoEye View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Apr 2004 Posts 2,455 Location St. Louis	http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php
	TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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08-14-2008 07:11 PM #18
planner View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Aug 2008 Posts 27	is there any free icm programs out there? or is sitngo-analyzer still the best investment?

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07-12-2009 06:58 AM #19
pokertemp View Profile View Forum Posts Join Date Jul 2009 Posts 1	Crunchy, do you still have that ICM spreadsheet? I tried to PM you directly but it wouldnt let me without sufficent posts. I would love to get a copy of it, if your still willing to share. Thank you.

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07-12-2009 09:58 AM #20
taipan168 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2005 Posts 10,571 Location Sydney	Originally Posted by pokertemp Crunchy, do you still have that ICM spreadsheet? I tried to PM you directly but it wouldnt let me without sufficent posts. I would love to get a copy of it, if your still willing to share. Thank you. Not sure if Crunchy is still around, the original post was more than four years ago. I have a standalone ICM calculator and an ICM spreadsheet (not sure if it's the same one as Crunchy put together) which you can download from here however.

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07-13-2009 03:04 AM #21
revolvingiris View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2008 Posts 1,170	tai, thank you for posting the link to your ICM spreadsheet! Was this yours or did you find it OL somewhere?

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07-13-2009 03:31 AM #22
taipan168 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2005 Posts 10,571 Location Sydney	Originally Posted by revolvingiris tai, thank you for posting the link to your ICM spreadsheet! Was this yours or did you find it OL somewhere? No problems! I didn't put it together, somebody sent it to me a few years ago.

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07-13-2009 07:40 PM #23
revolvingiris View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2008 Posts 1,170	Either way, its awesome! Thank you again for posting.

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