How To Win At MTT Poker

I recently found this site and thought I would post a few thoughts. I play on party, paradise, and stars in the largest mtt no limit tourneys available after
6:00 pm PST most nights under this name. I especially like the 8:00 pearl and 6:00 R&A on paradise, the 7:15 10 R&A on stars, and the nightly specials on party for 150 or 200 buyins. I also frequently play the 100 buyins on party. Generallly I am playing 2 to 3 tourneys at a time.

That in itself does not mean i know what i am talking about whatsoever perhaps i just have a lot of money to burn. I have one poker superstition and that is too not talk about winnings so you will have to decide whether i know what am talking about with an incomplete knowledge of my play (however u can verify my play because i told u exactly where i am at.)

So on to the topic. Winning mtt is very simple, find a way to surive the first 80-90 percent of people, then hit a good run of cards that hold up. I have told this to people and they think i am an idiot as i suspect many of you will. Which is just fine because 90 percent of poker players lose and I have yet to ever see a devout loser turn into a winner, so essentially I write this in vain. However, i see this site has many neophytes who might actually listen so i write on.

In the first hour of any mtt (excluding rebuy/addons) you will lose approxiamately half the field. That half obviously has no chance of winning. More interesting, in most tourneys if you post and fold that first hour, you will still have about 2/3 to half your chips, and have already beaten half the field by NOT DOING ANYTHING. Note i am not saying this a recommended strategy. It is however better to be there with a short stack then not at all.

In that first hour you will generally find people risking 150 chips to take 25 chips in blinds for example. What lunacy. Calling those same bets with J-9. Hello? Every poker hand has to be evaluated with an estimation of risk and reward along with consideration of the ultimate goal. You can not win a MTT in the first hour. It simply can not be done. Even if you could bust every person on the table you still would not have near enough chips to be competitive at the final table.

So thought number one is tight is right in the first hour of a MTT.

I am out of time for tonight. Playing the 6 oclocks on party and paradise. If people are interested I will continue to post.

Regards,

Soupie

I firmly believe u are better off not gambling until you absolutely have to ie. your stack is less than about 3X the blg, little, and antes combined.

However, I of course will play legitimate hands in the early rounds. For example, I love to see small pairs or suited connectors for the minimum bet in the early rounds usuallly from late position. Those same loose players will double you up if you flop big and it is wise to risk 1% of your chips if you have the possibility of doubling up.

I also will at times well overbet a big hand ie aces in the early round. Blinds are 5 and 10 and I will open with 200. It is amazing how many times you will get multiple calls.

As an aside, If you hear someone complaining about aces you know they dont understand the game. At any point in the tourney, with aces, my goal is always get as many preflop chips in the pot as possible and let the cards fall where they may.

So to expand, my first point: Tight is right in the first hour, but that doesnt mean you dont use your head and look for legitimate situations to take chips.

I make it through the first hour about 90% of the MTT I play.

Point number 2: Shut your pie hole unless you are eating pie.

If someone beats your hand with a draw out or pure junk, a proper response is nh or just nothing.

Think about it. Bad players play bad cards and that is what makes poker profitable. You want them playing bad cards. Bad cards will win at times, that is the breaks.

You have to protect your head space and that means exercising self control at all times. If you can not control what you type into the chat box you are losing poker player, as you will not be able to control what hands you play as well.

The only person dumber than the action, loose player is the person who tries to chase them away with insults.

Until next time.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 1 Tight is right in the first hour of a MTT.
Point 2 Shut your pie hole unless you are eating pie.
Point 3 Play where you belong.

It is imperative for good play that you be risking enough money for it to be meaningful to you and not risking so much you are endangering your financial or emotional health.

This level of play is unique to each individual. I personally risk about 500 a night and sleep like a baby win or lose. If you can't sleep when you lose, you are playing beyond your financial or emotional means.

If your play is sloppy and you find yourself bored, you arent risking enough. This is not the usual problem, most people tend to risk too much.

Also, your income or personal financial situation is not completely relevant to the level of tourneys you play. If you can't sleep after busting out of 5 dollar tourney, u should be playing 1 dollar tourneys. That simple.

Also, (this will strike a nerve) if your spouse is not supportive of your play, you will find it extremely difficult to play winning poker. MTT takes a lot of time and concentration. This will take away from family time. Most spouses become irritated if you have a hobby that costs a lot of moneyand takes a lot of time. I promise your however if you make consistent money, they rather enjoy your "hobby".

So to sum up, play the limits and games that keep you interested and not anxious.

As a note, if I continue this thread, it will probably take 30 or so posts to get to all the topics I would like to . These first three should take a losing player to break even immediately if they have reasonable knowledge of poker. It is helpful if those who are really interested would write a brief note just to let me know I am not wasting my time.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 1 Tight is right in the first hour of a MTT.
Point 2 Shut your pie hole unless you are eating pie.
Point 3 Play where you belong.
Point 4 Stop telling bad beat stories.

Now i know a substantial portion of this site is dedicated to telling bad beat stories, so i suspect this might get me banned. It however of no value to talk about how your aces got wacked by 46 in the big blind. It brings you down and quite frankly no one wants to hear it. Think about it, the last time you heard a bad beat story where you compassionate and caring, or did you just want them to shut up so you could tell your own bad beat story that was much worse.

Everyone takes bad beats. It is part of the game. Here's the second part, you have to drill into your head, everyone gives bad beats. I have not had one final table appearance without getting lucky at some point. You are not going to beat 500 or 1000 players without getting lucky at some point. Remember your luck is their bad beat

So if bad beats are regular part of the game, either accept them or stop playing.

What you think about expands, whether good or bad. If all you talk about is how horrible it is playing poker, how good is your game going to be?

This however is not intended to stifle legimate dicussions of correct play, I think you can tell the difference.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 5 Specialize

In my humble opinion, you are far better off in today's online poker world if you specialize. There is a vast array of games and limits offered. If you only play the same situation over and over, you increase your skill in that game compared to the guy who is bouncing from limit to no limit to omaha, to seven stud, to pot limit high only omaha, etc. Playing the same game regularly will give you an edge.

For example, when you play limit, many more situations pay to draw due to pot odds. So, as I have, get used to drawing and playing more pots and then play a no limit tourney my thinking is screwed up. I suddenly want to start calling and calling and calling on hands I have no business calling in no limit even though they are perfectly legitimate plays in limit.


The difference between live no limit and MTT no limit tourneys is also substantial as the goals are completely different. Live games are to leave with as much money as possible, each hand has exactly the same goal, minimize risk and maximize rewards. MTT are completely different, with the progressive blind structure and rewards to only a few at the the top. An AQ on the button means something totally different in round 1 vs. round 9. In MTT, your thinking and playing style must evolve with the situation of the tourney (ie your chips stack, blind levels, where are the big stacks, where are the crying calllers, where are the aggressors etc.)

Now I know someone is just about to fire off a rebuttal about how they are trying to be well rounded and learn the whole game and TJ Cloutier can do it why can't I. Here is what you do to test this. Play 2 rounds at 3 different games that you don't normally play, then go play your regular game. See if I am right, does it change your game and approach?

This goes back to point 3 as well, play where you belong. If you are trying to maximize your earnings you play the games you have the best edge because you know more about that game than the next guy.

Regards,

Soupie

Lefou,

I am not sure who would specialize in freerolls. Trying to beat 1800 people going all in everyhand for a 100 first prize sounds like self flaggelation to me personally. Second, in the online community there is no reason to try to "be the action" guy. In large mulit table tourneys, you are basically anonymous so trying to cultivate a table image would have minimal returns in my opinion. I can see your point if you play in a small card room with the same people over and over.

Point 6 Be a big picture person.

As I am writing this today, I have failed to place in the last 16 MTT's I have played. Not 1 dollar, nothing, natta, zippo. Not a very good feeling. I did get and 2 and a 6th on Sunday that paid quite nicely, but those emotions do not hold out for 4 days and 16 tourneys later.

If you specialize in MTT's, there will very good times and some losing spells. How do you know the good times are better than the bad times? You need to keep records and look at the big picture.

So here is some of my stats over the last 629 tourneys. There are an average of 491 players. My average place is 175. On average i pay 99 dollars an entry fee. In those tourneys, I have placed in the money 115 times. I have made the final table 46 times. I have 5 firsts, 4 seconds, and 12 third places.

Now I feel better, because I know my game is more than the last 4 days. I have the records and money to prove it. So tonight i can once again sit down and play with the confidence I have an edge over the field.

Time is short so I will try to expand this point later.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 1 Tight is right in the first hour of a MTT.
Point 2 Shut your pie hole unless you are eating pie.
Point 3 Play where you belong.
Point 4 Stop telling bad beat stories.
Point 5 Specialize
Point 6 Be a big picture person.

Any thoughts, comments or clarification on the first 6 points? Beyond this point, we will need to get into specific situational poker which will be tedious work. If you follow the first six you should be a winner in MTT's over time, say 3 months combined. There are numerous playing styles that will win if applied correctly, so how to deal with certain poker situtations is largely opinion anyway. I look foward to some lively discussion.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 7 Have some guts with the nuts.

When you are fortunate enough to have the nuts, have the courage to put a lot of chips in the pot. Sounds simple enough but how many times have you seen someone with the nuts check the flop, turn and then make a small bet on the river, which of course you or someone else paid off.

When you have the nuts, you need to at least try to double through someone, not just be content to pick up a few chips. Lets examine an example, you are heads up on the river with the nut straight, you can bet 100 chips and you make get called say 8 out 10 times or you can bet all in 1000 chips and get called say just 2 out of 10 times. In the course of 10 hands you would expect 800 chips from strategy 1 and 2000 chips from strategy 2. Stategy will yield 2.5 times more chips in the long run. True you dont get the satisfaction of showing the nuts that often, but isnt it a lot better to have more chips?

Also with the nuts, try to extend the betting and give people a chance to hang themselves. I like to bet the minimum on the flop if I have flopped the nut flush or something. You wont be chasing anyone out who would have called your all in river bet ( there is no such thing as bluff call, you have to have a little something.) By extending the bettiing rounds you increase peoples emotional and chip commitment to the pot. After all poker is game of egomaniacs, and many a person will let his ego affect his calling or raising decisions.

Now the turn you can set the trap, if you got called on the flop, check. Hopefully someone bets for you but if not thats ok. If someone is over commited to the pot based on their chip position, I would of course go ahead and put them in.

The river of course is bet all in. This pattern i like to use ( but not always) stinks to high heaven. Small bet, check, All-in looks like a steal and players who dont know your style will be more apt to call your all in bet.

You may not like this strategy. Post your own, I'd like to hear it. The basic point remains get your chips in action when you have the nuts.

Regards,

soupie

Point 1 Tight is right in the first hour of a MTT.
Point 2 Shut your pie hole unless you are eating pie.
Point 3 Play where you belong.
Point 4 Stop telling bad beat stories.
Point 5 Specialize.
Point 6 Be a big picture person.
Point 7 Have some guts with the nuts.

Point 8 Two special situtations to tighten up.

I have noticed there are 2 places in the course of any online tourney it pays to to tighten up, because you will make a quite a bit more money. They are right after the field is in the money and right when you bust down to the final table.

For example, in a 500 person tourney where 50 are paid. Going from 60 to 50 players may take a while. Most of the field is watching the board to see how many are left and you are hand for hand which can really slow down the pace. Nobody wants to leave now after 3 hours of play or so. The desire to get paid at least a little something is tremendous. So most will tighten their play considerably, especially the short stacks who can afford to go 1 or 2 more rounds.

Now you hit the magic number 50, everyone is typing in congrats on making the money and so. There is this tremendous emotional release and people start hitting the raise and call buttons with abandon as compared to before. You can just hear the chorus of "were in the money." They reason I feel it is appropriate to tighten up is that you can often move up 20 places without doing anything during this period. I am not saying don't play good hands or take chips when they are offered, just resist the emotional trap and refuse to join in.

The same thing happens when the final table is seated. It usually takes quite a bit of time to bust out number 11 and 12. A lot more hand for hand. A lot more stress as you may have been playing 5 to 7 handed for a while. And remember, most people are exhausted by this point. Even here on the west coast it may be 1 or 2 in the AM in some tourneys, much later than most US and Canadian players go to bed

So you get to 10 players and there is this round of congrats and so on. Usuallly, 3 people or so will bust out within a round or two often times over playing marginal hands. To me, this often represents the same emotional release of finally making it. If at all possible you need to move up at the final table, it is imperative to long term success. The moneys all at the top.

As I said in posts past, everthing beyond point 6 was going to largely opinion based on personal observation. Please feel free to post your own observations.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 9 Thou shalt not steal from the wounded.

Anyone every notice that when you are losing you can't wait to play again and when you are winning you are just looking for a polite way to hit the door and bank those winnings. That is common to all investment that involves risk and uncertainty. There are hundreds of book written about this same phenomenon in the stock and commodity markets (and I have read a lot of them.) We all want to feel good and winners feel good, losers feel bad.

This scenerio plays out in miniature through out a MTT. For example, blinds are 100/200 and one of the players gets his stack wacked on a viscious bad beat say aces beaten by tens. He was the table leader at 7000 chips and now has 4000. No matter he is still in fine position chipwise, he's wounded and wants those chips back now, right now. Do not steal from this man for several hands, especially the very next hand in the game. He is far more likely to call and raise. Be however more willingly to play strong hands for more chips. I think ripptyde would agree this is not the time for your standard 3x the BB raise with 7-4 off into this man's blind.

The converse is also true to an extend with many players. I however feel slightly less confident about this point as it is dead wrong for a few players. If someone is recently won a big hand or two, they usually are a little easier to steal from. It is a emotional high to win a couple big hands and many people will not want to risk their chip position immediately without strong hands. However, a caveat, a few players immediatlely start playing like King Kong with a big stack calling everything in site, so you have to exercise caution as always.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 10 Give yourself 2 ways to win every hand you play.

If your betting or raising the hand, you always have 2 ways to win the hand, the field can fold and you take the pot or they can call and you can win at a showdown.

This is why ripptydes favorite hand of 7-4 off works with a raise into an unraised pot. Say half the time the field folds, he takes the pot. The other half they call, if they check,he bets and represents the winning hand, and they fold maybe half the time again. Once in a while 7-4 flops the joint and he really takes them to the cleaners. Constantly keeping the pressure on you opponents will force them into mistakes, even if you have the worse hand. And by the way, 7-4 is a really easy lay down if you get checkraised or reraised at any point.

On the other hand, calling raised pots gives you only one way to win. You have to beat them. With any 2 non pair cards, you will only flop a pair about one third of the time. Your odds of flopping 2 pair are about 5%. The flop simply does not improve your hand often enough to just call especially heads up. You would be better off raising 2-7 on the button than you are calling AJ in first postion. You have far more outs raising 2-7 on the button because they can give you the pot before the flop or on the flop with a "rep bet"

The underlying principle is that you increase your outs with an aggressive game of betting or raising with minimal calls.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 11 Count to 10 then begin.

This is my biggest fault. Guilty as charged many times. It is so easy to click that mouse when faced with a big call. There is no reason to hurry and I dont care if I take 20 seconds of the tables time, it just an impulse or reflex. One reckless moment in time and several hours of reget.

Fishstick's "Questions to ask yourself" on the homepage of this site is a good read to buttress my point. Even if you have a joint, you should take a moment to put your opponent on a hand.

What does he have and why is betting at me?
What do I know about his style of play?
Is this the most efficient use of my chips at this point of the tournament?
Did he hit a draw?
Has he been softplaying me for the kill?
What was the preflop action?

Also, if you are faced with all-in call in the first 2 rounds with just top pair, lay it down, this is a sucker play and I'll get you with the gigantic bet. It works too many times.

To sum up, take your time, every site gives you at least 30 seconds to think. Use it.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 12 Consider the blinds.

A recurring theme of several posts is something like " I am a great player until about 3/4 of the way through then I never seem to make the money" or "I just cant get to the final table." Below is posted a blind structure i lifted from Paradise to illlustrate a common MTT. Both Party and Stars are similar I dont know about other sites.

Level Blind Ante
1 10/20 -
2 15/30 -
3 25/50 -
4 50/100 -
5 75/150 -
6 100/200 -
7 100/200 25
8 200/400 25
9 300/600 50
10 400/800 50
11 600/1200 75
12 1000/2000 100
13 1500/3000 150
14 2000/4000 200
15 3000/6000 300
16 4000/8000 400
17 6000/12000 600
18 10000/20000 1000
19 15000/30000 1500
20 20000/40000 2000

For purpose of discussion, let's assume the folllowing, there are 1000 players, blinds go up every 15 minutes, you start with 1000 chips, you see 60 hands an hour, and lets also assume that half the field busts out every hour which I have noticed to be fairly accurate.

So here you are, you have made it to the second break, you have the the average stack of 4000 chips, and there are 250 players. Up to this point you have seen 120 hands. Blinds are now 300/600 with a 50 ante. It is now costing you 1200 chips per round to stay at your current level. You will be gone in 30 hands if you do nothing, but post and fold. You absolutely must play and you are unlikely to get an ideal situation, not impossible but unlikely.

Next point, you have to add to that stack. By round 12 in just 45 minutes, blinds will be 2000/1000 100 ante. If you manage to stay even for the next 3/4 of an hour, you will be completely destroyed in 10 hands of round 12.

By the end of the 3rd hour, you can assume there will be about 125 players left, average chip stack of 8000 chips. But a closer look, reveals the average stack is pathetic. 3000/1500 blinds and 150 antes. One round will completely destroy the average stack.

Based on these scenerios ( which I feel are fairly accurate) you need to have a fundamental shift in your thinking, somewhere between round 6 and round 10. No longer can you play cards and statistics like a ring game, You are going to have to gamble up, take chances, riptyddy away if I may say. You have to be fearless. Stop worrying about running into aces in the big blind. Forget about all the other times you got screwed. Play like you own the joint and have so much money it just doesnt matter.

Time is no longer a friend. YOU ABSOLUTLEY MUST ADD TO THAT STACK TO STAY COMPETITIVE.

You see, MTT tourneys are not fair. The format will not consistenly get the best players to the final table. The blinds rise too rapidly and the rounds are not nearly long enough to separate the wheat from the chaf. Yes the best players will get the money in the long run, because your play does matter, but on any given night the format will not reward the best.

Loose creative play is rewarded in the later rounds for the following reasons: the blinds are large creating a substantially larger reward for capturing them, most loosy goosy players have already busted out in the first hour (has anyone ever seen a player who played every hand win a large tourney? I havent), the average player who makes it too round 9 is much better than average ( obviously) and these players tend to play what i would term tight/aggressive, and lastly, in at least in larger buy in tourneys, nobody really want to risk their stack on less than top shelf hands, making steals much easier.

The blinds and blind structure with consideration of you own stack size must dictate your play in later rounds if you expect to be successful in MTT's.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 13 Consider the implications of an all in bet.

The all in bet is the great equalizer in no limit poker. It is the power of telling the table, i have aces and if you dont think so, come beat me. It gives your opponent only one out to beat your hand, a showdown. There are no more fancy moves to be made. No slowplaying, no checkraising, no underbetting or overbetting the hand. You have made your final decision, now it is up to them. You are going to see all five cards regardless, period. They can not bluff you out.

When used judiciously, the all in bet gives you addition outs, and that is your opponents fear. What are they afraid of? You may really have aces, they will get a bad beat, they may be afraid their spouse will telll them how stupid they are if they lose a bunch of chips at once, they may be afraid of not making the money or making the top 200, or just about anything.

Here is some specific situations to consider going all in.

1. Ripptyde is sitting 2 to your left and shoving 7-4 down your throat. If the players to your left are consistently stealing your blinds, you may have to just slam right over the top of them. Let's look at an example, you have blinds of 100/200 and this is 4th time in the last hour the player one to the left of the button has raised 3x the big blind and thats you. With the rising blinds you know you have to put a stop to this, so you go all in for say 2000 chips. There is 900 chips in the pot with his 600 and the 2 blinds of 100/200. Because you have given up the last 3 blinds to him, he is going to have you tagged as a tight, passive player. You were easy money, now you suddenly stand up and say screw you and the horse you rode in on with the all in bet. Unless he happens to have a great hand by accident, you will usually get a fold here from him. Emotionally, you have just whipsawed the aggressor from greed straight to fear. So here are your outs, he can fold and you can take the 900 chips and significantly heighened table image to the next hand or he can call and you can win at showdown, worse case he beats you at showdown, but you were going to blind out anyways without doing something.

2. Consider going all in the later rounds when you have a fairly decent hand and there has been no strength shown. For example, you get AQ on the button, and 3 people call in front of you. The chances you have the best hand here are pretty good. There are 4 and half big blinds in the pot plus antes. Going all in here will net you a nice pot with less risk. Sure you have the risk of getting called and beaten at showdown, but at this stage of the tourney you run the same risk of someone flopping a baby set or 2 pair with a calling party, the aq only flops a pair about one third of the time anyways why screw around if you can take the pot now?

3. If you have happened to win the last couple pots especially in a showy fashion and then you get aces or kings. All in to win. Always be aware of what your opponents are thinking, if you have taken 2 or 3 pots in a row, they are suspicious. Your chances of getting good action are much better if the little box in the bottom says "soupie wins the pot" 3 times in a row.

I know statistics, pot odds,and implied odds are all important, but what is more important in no limit is your opponents head space. How they play, what they will play in certain situations, what the bets mean. There are certain players you can safely lay down kk against if they reraise you before the flop. Sometimes, you can use this information to take their chips with the all in "nuclear option" bet. Whether you win or lose is largely detemined by how you react to how they play the game.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 14 Analysis of the weak lead.

This seems to happen, quite a bit. Someone raises the pot from position say 3 times the BB, the flop checks to them, and they bet the minimum, one big blind. Now if you are like me, your first reaction is what is that? Second reaction, I need to raise here. Third reaction, is that just someone using my favorite move trying to suck me?

In my opinion, the weak lead means weak more often than not. It is often times 2 big cards that have missed trying to capture the pot with a minimum of risk. It is an ideal checkraise situation to capture the pot especially against the players who are classic position players. In other words, if a player has shown the pattern of consistently raising the pot from late position, this is a low risk checkraise with any 2, regardless of your cards. Now I wouldnt always pile all my chips in, but if I need chips, this is one situtation to attack.

If the weak lead means weak, why do players do it? Two reasons, sometimes it works. With a 3X BB bet against just the BB call there are 7 and half BB's in the pot plus antes. If one BB will capture more than 7 times it's value, it doesnt have to work that often. Secondly, it is almost reflexive to bet a pot you previously raised, but because the hand sucks, they will just bet a little.

Ripptyde, talks about repping the ace, the weak lead is not how its done. You have to bet about what you raised before the flop to legitimately rep the ace.

If someone you know to be a strong player uses the weak lead on you, ignore this whole point.

Regards,

soupie

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Point 15 Thoughts on the Rebuy/Addon Tourneyments

The two rebuys i regularly play are the 30 dollars rebuy on paradise at 6:00 PST and the 10 dollar rebuy on Stars at 7:15 PST.

My strategy changes, but varies widely with the table make up. Sometimes you sit down on almost every hand someone is all in. With in 15 minutes there are huge stacks at the table. Other times there is fairly normal betting,raising and folding with pots well below the size of your chip stack.

If the play is wild, the only thing u can do is join the party with your best hands. I will probably launch all in with ak, aq, and pairs medium and up and calling with other hands as I can just to see the flop. This type of table play is ideal for rebuy tourneys as you are going to need a big stack and doubling or tripling through people is the only way to do it.

If the play is fairly normal, at the beginning, not much to say that has not been said. Be patient, however, a lot of times people will really loosen up after about half an hour and a couple beats. Then the gloves come off and it is time to gamble up. Just get your chips in on your best hands and let ladyluck guide the way.

A rough rule of thumb for rebuys is you need to be prepared to pay at least 5X your initial buy in as an entry fee. So if it is a 10 dollar buy in, you need to be comfortable with spending 50 to get past the rebuy period. If that is too much money, you are playing at the wrong tourney. Scared money becomes other peoples money, almost always.

I know a lot of people hate R/A tourneys. Those same people complain about pocket aces. And those same people are losing poker players.

The rebuy/addon tourney is simply another wrinkle, that requires an adjustment to your strategy. It actually favors the best players even more as they can adjust their play from one phase to the next without anxiety. Many players can not adjust their play. They play loose/tight/passive/aggressive and stay that way until their chips are gone.

To sum up, my thoughts on the Rebuy/Addon's are to play modestly tight/extremely aggressive in the first hour and preplan to pay at least 5X's your intial entry fee.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 16 Analysis of the strong lead

This situation plays out throughout all tourneys many times. You are in the blind and your hand warrants a call into raiser who are raised you say 3x the BB. Now the flop comes and he comes charging at you again with that same size bet. This is the repping bet that ripptyde talks about. Ace high board, check to the raiser, the raiser reps the ace with a strong bet.

Three choices here fold, call, reraise.

In order, I would fold if my hand is legitimately weak and the pot is of little value to me relative to my chip stack. Even if you have the read he is bluffing, it is not always correct to reraise. If the value of the pot is minor, it is best to often times let it go for a better opportunity. Your reads are not always correct (right?) and it simply is not worth the risk to reraise 9X the big blind just because you think he is bluffing. We can all remember the times when we finally thought we could get a piece of the action player and came away missing a limb.

Calling, although seemingly the weak play, can be correct. If you have flopped the joint or have a big overpair to the board, a call may be warranted. It may be the only way to get an aggressive player to pay you off as many strong players will smell a trap with the first reraise and lay it down, although they will aggressively hang themself into a crying caller. Done that many times myself.

Remember, there is no such thing as a bluff-call. Calling with crap is a weak play made by losing players. Find a better use for your chips.

Lastly, the reraise, by far the most fun. A reraise here is ideal anytime you think you have the best hand and the pot is large enough to take the risk. The reraise here gives you an ally, that is your opponents fear. His greed drove him to raise the pot before the flop and on the flop, and now you are taking him to new emotional territory, fear. Suddenly, he is no longer driving this ship, you have just effectively told him, " screw you and the horse you rode in on." You also doubled your ways to win, he can fold or you can win at showdown.

This a special situation to reraise which you may not have considered. Your chip stack is relatively low, but still strong enough for a powerful reraise. The flop and your hand are such that you know you are going to the river with this one win or lose. Example, you have AJs and you catch 2 suited cards on the flop that is 9 high or you have QJ and the flop is 893 rainbow. If you are going to the river anyway, shove them all in on a reraise. A portion of the time, the raiser will fold and you will take the pot right there with no futher risk. This also goes back to the count to 10 then begin rule, I will often reflexively call in these situations then see the showdown on the river when i have missed and wonder why i didnt at least try to push out that pair of 5's or something similarly weak.

This post has only addressed a heads up situation. In a multiplayer pot, it is correct to call far more often.

Regards,

soupie

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Point 17 Let the biggest hands bring home the bacon.

When you watch the tourneys on TV, you always see the big hands colliding. AK vs. QQ and this big dramatic showdown. They slow down the dealing to a crawl so the audience can analyze the odds step by step. The announcers have plenty of time to talk about previous hands and the biographies of the players. They even take the time to put definitions up on the screen for crying out loud. All show business.

Most of the poker is not played in these hands as we well know. Most poker is small pots, a lot of folding, a minorly exciting reraise here and there. A when it is all said and done the majority of pots are won by one pair or less in my estimation.

Now you know, this TV type play is having an amazing effect on the action in the MTT's. Lots of players are dumping money into their accounts and hoping to be the next Greg Raymer or Chris Moneymaker. Unfortunately, for them, they dont know how to play boring poker. They just know how to call, raise and play way too many hands. Heck, Chris Moneymaker practically took out Sammy Farhah on a bluff to win it all, that must be how its done. Big bluffs and a cool pair of sunglasses. Allin to win, got to get a big stack in the first 15 minutes so I can survive all the way to the final table. Right?

Great poker is largely boring. You fold and fold and fold and fold. I personally see 22% of flops including small and big blinds. And in the midst of this morass of crappy cards, what is bound to happen, KK startles you, there it is, you have been waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting for something to play. No one is letting you steal anything, the field is pushing and shoving every pot and the chips have been passed around in tidal waves, just not towards you. You are in one of those games where you think to yourself, i have no idea what ripptyde is talking about, because these guys all have suicide pact and there is no way i am going to get away with 4-7 move.

Now back on point, these hands like KK will make or break your tourney. You have got to win here, you've got the best of it right now and they are dying to give you chips. Do you push? How about a slow play? Maybe a mid level raise?

Here is my recommended strategy for this situation.

1. Take your bloody time. Take your hands away from the mouse. Take a sip of water or whatever.

2. Push if there is a likely chance of getting at least one call. This depends on the action, the size of your stack, and the size of the blinds. You have to win this hand so no fear, no regrets, no anxiety. You are putting all your chips in on your best hand, there is no greater poker play. You did you absolute best on this night to win the tourney. No one can ask for more.

3. A midlevel raise is suggested if shoving all your chips in is likely to scare out the field, but a midlevel raise is likely to get you action. The goal here is to get as many preflop chips in the pot as possible. If you have been living on steady diet of 3X BB raises and the field knows it, this a great, sneaky way of getting inferior hands into the pot. The old he's always bluffing raise if that is your table rep. This raise is best in late position.

4. Smooth call if in your estimation the level of aggression at the table is such that you are likely to be raised by the time the action gets to the BB. If at all possible, let other people bet this hand for you. If you want to catch fish, dont beat on the water with a paddle, throw that line in there with as little spash as possible. You want people pot and/or emotionally commited when you drop the all in bomb, and allowing them to be the raiser will permit them to make strange calls.


Do not be afraid of these situations, when you do well in tourneys it will be because you doubled here on KK, and then an hour later on AA and so on. When your big hands win, you win, when they lose, you enter another tourney, no problem, you played well, played your best hand, they got got lucky. So what, one tourney doesnt define anybody.

Regards,

soupie

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Point 18 Ace on the turn and chips to burn.

This situation comes up about a couple of times per tourney. You have a hand where you have a late position bettor or raiser on the flop. You call the see the turn and here comes the big overcard to the board. You check to see what he will do and low and behold the previous better/raiser throws out a weak bet almost instantaneously. Now you know this joker didnt hit that ace but what to do, what to do?

Consider checkraising if any of the following is true, you hit the ace, you have a strong second pair with kicker, you are drawing to a straight or flush, or there is a good chance he will fold based on his previous play.

Push them all in if you have to have the chips. You will not find a better bluffing situation. Many people including myself would not take the risk against an all in bet in this situation with second or third pair.

I would only call if I have a hand I want to see the river with, say a flush draw, and I know i just can't move this guy. You can't bluff someone who refuses to fold, that is the worst poker move in the world. Let me say that again, never ever, never ever, never ever, try to steal from someone who calls everything. One more time, it is really dumb to try to make other players change the way they play to conform to your rules of who should fold and when. You have to play by their rules and everybody's rules can be exploited for chips

To sum, when the bet smells to high heaven, opportunity knocks.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 19 You got to know when to fold em.

This preflop situation will come up about every 2 to 3 tourneys, but if you misplay it, you are likely sitting on the rail muttering why cant i ever catch a break.

You are 1 off the button, catch an AQ, raise the blinds your standard raise, the button folds, but the small blind reraises, and big blind goes all in behind him. Do you call all in into that kind of aggression? This is clear fold situation.

The odds having AA, KK out there just went way up based on players actions. Who cares about the statistical odds of preflop hole cards. This is where the mathaholics fall flat on their face playing poker. I can just hear them as they call, " 65.9 percent of the time, AQ is the favorite preflop, in a three handed pot or i have run this poker simulator for 5 trillion hands and AQ wins this pot 47 percent of the time against the small and big blinds." If you are fortunate enough to be his friend, now you can listen to how AQ, got beat by AA and KK in the blinds and how rigged online poker is. Nothing but poppycock. You got know when to quit on a hand even if it is the best thing you have seen all night.

I will give you an example from just the other night. I am on the button with AKs, third best hand right? Blinds are 15/30. 2 to my right calls the pot for 30, 1 to my right raises to 120, i call, the small blind goes all in for 1500, 2 to my right flat calls, 1 to my right flat calls. 3 all ins in the early stages. What do you do? I layed it down real quick. Way to much risk here so early in the tourney with odds of really big hands leaving me drawing just to a flush. Here is how it turned out. The first all in had A-10s, the second had KJs, and the third, QQ. Flop comes AQ3. Runner, runner diamonds and KJ takes it down. I think my fold was correct regardless of the outcome. The action dictated really big hands.

As an aside, QQ had a few chips left and really started whining. I shut him up when i told him most of us prefer players who call and go all in with KJ.

To sum up, when action is extremely aggressive preflop in an otherwise normal game, you have to lay em down almost always.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 20 Use the chat box to your advantage.

Ok, here's the situation, you got some dingdong reading all these posts and figures he needs to steal from late position every single time and you happen to be one he's stealing from. Now preferrably, you're getting hands to reraise, but it doesnt always happen. So here's what you do, just type a little message like "are you plannning to steal my blind everytime, dingdong" or whatever his name happens to be. This will probably put the kibosh on it. You have just announced to the table this guy is stealing and some people will take note, but more importantly, if this guy really is stealing, he will be much more afraid to in the future. Nobody wants to raise pure junk if they think the raise is transparent.

Also, u may choose to shut up abusive players as I do. You know these guys who bitch and moan about some beat and generally berate one of the other players. My standard line is "anyone who makes fun of someone whom they perceive to be playing bad, is dumber than any bad play." I don't mind chasing off jerks, but dont you dare insult my action. They paid to play and they can do anything they want to with their cards.

Lastly, use that chat box to control your emotions. I force myself to type nice hand everytime i get beat at showdown. Do I want to? Not always of course, but it is a sincere compliment no matter how bad the beat (it is a seven card game, remember) and it is my way of moving past the hand. I dont want to let that splinter fester. I find generally being agreeable and polite is the best way to discipline your play.

Using the chat box is one way of creating perceptions at the table without using your chips.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 21 Remember to remember what they remember.

An essential question to ask when contemplating your next move is what do my opponents know about me. What cards have I shown down, from what position, what size of bets have I made, do they have player notes 2 pages long on me and so forth.

For instance, you have just doubled up on marginal hand from the blinds. No matter it was unraised and you flopped 2 pair, people see you as Mr. Q4 that beat up on KK. Now you have a big stack and you are a luck box. Or maybe you made a move on the blinds with filth and got lucky, what do they think you play? I guarantee the guy you creamed will not forget it this night, your name or the hand.

When your table image is loose, time to tighten up and wait to drive the big rigs. You must alter your play immediately. Dont keep stealing with junk. You dont want them calling from 3 tables away.

If your image is so tight they think you are trying to turn coal into diamonds, use that as well. Your bets will be respected to a greater extend. You can use this image to get away with a lot more at least until you are caught. You can occasionally even get away with the "big move," the reraise steal.

What if they think you are on tilt? Say you just lost a big hand, then miracle of miracles, 2 rockets staring you in the face. Fire with barrels here cause u gettin called.

It is important to alter your strategy hand by hand if necessary based upon the new information your opponents may have.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 22 Trip talk, trip talk

One of the most difficult situations to play correctly is a paired flop. There is no way to really even describe what to do because there are so many variables. Here are some of my thoughts.

If you missed the trips but want to bet due a flush draw, straight draw, or second pair. Bet the minimum on the flop. This is a high risk situation where your reward is moderate and your risk is maximum. The minumum bet here however will be respected much more than normal. People will not want to pay off trips and will be highly likely to fold draws and pairs that they would play in other situations. The minimum bet smells like a weak means strong play anyways further increasing your odds of taking down the pot. This is not the situation to semibluff the draw with a big bet because a lot of times when you make the draw you will be staring down the full boat.

If you are faced with a big bet on the flop without the trips you are forced to lay it down almost all the time. Take some time to review the hand backwards, what position is the bettor in, how does he play, what are chances he has one of the 2 left in the deck? If the trips are low and the flop is say K33, this actually improves a hand like aces, leaving all the K's drawing to just another K to beat you. If you are in a multiway pot early in the tourney, just refuse to mess with this hand. The times you will win it will not begin to compare with the times you get your stack wacked with the slow playing trips.

Now, how about he times you flop the trips. Most of the time there will be a flush draw or a straight draw on board and half the time an overcard. In other words, there are cards to come that may possibly beat you if you fail to improve the hand and you wont improve this hand more than 20 percent of the time. Not to mention there maybe another player with trips with a better kicker and maybe pocket pairs that fill on the turn or the river. See how the anxiety builds?

The reality is you have a great hand here. A lot better that pocket aces before the flop.The key is how can you get them to give you their chips. You can just spazz out and go all in taking a small pot, but is that the best play? At some point in any tourney, you are going to have to take some risks, do you want to do it when you have the best of it or when you have to shove em in on marginal hands because you are short chipped? Sure if you slow play this, you take the risk of getting drawn out on but sometimes you have to massage people a little to get their chips.

Here is how i would play this, check the flop almost always, maybe bet the minumum if you are in last position. Hope someone bets it for you. Bet the turn a little if everyone checks on the flop. You may chose to bet strong if you think it will perceived as a steal. Make a large river bet, that looks like a steal. You have to give them the opportunity to make mistakes, not little mistakes which are not mistakes at all due to pot odds, big mistakes where they dont have pot odds.

The proper play with trips is so situational specific. If you have calling stations, you have to bet. If you have very strong/aggressive players in the pot you have to check to extend enough rope they can hang themselves. If you are in the later stages of a tourney, checkcalling will probably get you paid more often.

I would just encourage you to think very carefully when you flop trips and maximize the opportunity. Trips is one of the money hands. Dont be afraid of them.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 23 Your not invincible, stupid

I write this post essentially to chew myself out. I played bad last night and this is a confession. I played 2 tournaments I was not interested in, giving myself very little chance. Then to top it off, i played great for 2 hours in the tourney i was interested in only to succumb to KING KONG mentality.

Heres the situation, I was playing the 150 8:00 tourney on Paradise last night. 96 entrants. I only had to play 3 hands and 2 hours later I was chip leader with 15000 chips ( starting with 1500 ). I tripled up on KK early, doubled up with AK about an hour later, and took out 2 more with KK late. So here i sit, chip leader 20 players left and the tourney pays 10. In the course of the next 10 hands I manage to blow off 10000 of those chips playing 2 pots of a very speculative nature. I ended up finishing 15th pushing a short stack all in when i had to. What came over me? Why would I be so willingly to tear down what took me more than 2 hours to build. I broke all my own rules, that I have so painstakingly posted over the last month. Am I really that stupid? I wrote the book for crying out loud.

Here's the truth, you do it too. I watch players with big early stacks crumble all the time. I smile when the big stacks starting winning with questionable calls and raises. I know where my chip stack will come from. Sooner or later, they are giving it to me. They are going to push them out just one too many times, and I am going to be all over that like flies on manure. I love to play against King Kong. My favorite opponent.

So why do I do it. I am human, I do dumb things. So do you, but here's the rub. Do you hold yourself accountable or do you blame the bad beats, the run of the cards, the maniac to your left, party, stars, paradise, ulitmatebet, pacific, full tilt, your nagging wife, the election, hemrrhoids, constipation, a headache, etc. How many excuses do you allow yourself?

Poker is really a journey into self. The games never over. How close to excellence can you achieve? Can you subvert you emotions and impulsiveness to acheive your goals?

Ok, lets go a little deeper. When you are the big stack, how do people perceive you? They know every hand they play against you may be their last. They also know on average you are lot harder to steal against because you can afford to call. So with this in mind, when they do decide to play, they will raise their starting hand standards and notch or 2. So how should that effect your play as the big stack. You should be a little more active in the stealing pots and a lot more reticent to call big bets or significant action. Just understand when you run into significant resistance trying to steal you have probably just run into a big hand and just the fact they called your raise means they probably means are going to sink or swim with this hand.

Well enough confession. Time to play some poker.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 24 Celebrate your bad beats

I realize the title of this point sounds moronic, but let me expand. When you take a bad beat, someone had to draw uphill on you. They committed their chips in a situation where they had negative expectation. This my friends is the whole point of poker, getting action when you have the best of it at that point. Consistently getting your chips into the pot when you the best of it, is what its all about. So if you played the game to the best of your ability, made the correct play, is it not illogical to be upset?

In the long run its just one long poker game. There will be peaks and valleys, great wins and losing streaks. The trend is what defines a winner. Choosing to define yourself or poker in general by one bad beat is insane. You either play well enough to have an edge on the field or you dont, after a couple hundred tourneys you will know. After 10 tourneys, you dont, simply too small a sample size.

In my first post, i made a statement that went unchallenged so I will bring it up again for review.

"Winning mtt is very simple, find a way to surive the first 80-90 percent of people, then hit a good run of cards that hold up."

That is all there is to it, that's how it happens every single time. I know we spend a lot of time discussing the nuances of poker which is valuable, but sometimes you have to keep it simple too.

Are you making mistakes that do not allow you to get to that good run of cards that all winners get? You simply do not last long enough?

Are you too timid when you get your good run to go for the kill? When AA pops up is the first thing that pops into your head this is a great hand or is it i hope i dont take another bad beat?

Are you training your brain to be fearless when necessary, yet absolutely dispassionate about bad beats?

Do your emotions understand that losing in large tourneys is frequent and getting to big money is infrequent for even the best players?

Well, I've done it again. Another post on controlling your emotions and perspective. The majority of players have a good grasp on the mathmatics of poker, the difference maker is often how well you can control your actions based on your knowledge.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 25 Bankroll Management 101

The difference between an average player that wins a little and a great player that is always broke is bankroll management. To be a winning poker player, you have to think like an inverstor and not like a gambler. An investor understands there are risks and is unwilling to stake his fortune on an one opportunity. A gambler roams around always sure their fortune is just around the corner, willling to bet it all everytime. And if that works out, they will just bet it all again. Thats why all no limit poker players go broke, and true no limit is not spread anymore to my knowledge. You simply can not bet it all everytime and win

YOU WILL ALWAYS BE A LOSING, FRUSTRATED PLAYER UNLESS YOU LEARN TO LIMIT YOUR RISKS. PERIOD. END OF STORY. THAT'S ALL SHE WROTE.

One good rule of thumb might be never risk more than 5% of your bankroll on any given night. Another might be only play MTT's where the entry fee is 1% or 2% of your total bankroll. Find a rule that works for you and stick by it. Self control is just as important when managing your bankroll as it is with your play. If you have no self control with money management, you will not be able to stop yourself from going on tilt, making bad calls, bluffing when the pot doesnt pay the odds, etc.

As several of you have found out lately, everyone hits the skids at times. If you always win, please call, 1-888-idreamofjeannie, because thats as close to reality as you're ever going to get.

You have to treat your bankroll like a millilon dollars because it is, it is your ticket to the show. It is your continued ability to make money playing poker and over time, you can continue to reinvest that money to earn larger and larger returns.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point 26 Consider draws carefully.

Mike 4066 said something a last night that sparked me a little. We were discussing outs on a drawing hand in the chat and he mentioned something like, "how many clean outs do you have and will they pay you off."

Let's analyze the first part. Clean outs. A lot of times you have straight and flush draws where you can make your hand and still be beat. For instance, there are 2 flush cards on the flop and you flop an open end straight draw. Now normally you calculate your outs as 8/47 on the turn and 8/46 on the river and that truly is your outs of making the straight, but with the flush draw 2 of those outs are "dirty." They bring the flush as well.

Now lets say you are drawing to the bottom end of an open end straight with the flop 3 different suits. Say you have 78 and the board is 10,9,3. You really only have 4 clean outs here, as the J brings the gut shot in for KQ and Q8.

In both of the above situations, you have good outs, to make a tremendous hand, but you also have trap me type outs where you make your hand and get screwed out of your stack. You absolutely must keep this in mind when determining how much to call or bet in no limit poker. You cant just limp along like limit poker.

So here is one practical application. Say your in the big blind and you see a free flop. You flop an open ended straight with a 2 card flush on board. The small blind leads out with a large bet and there are 4 more people to act, what do you do? You have to lay this down. 4 more people to act and realistically only 6 cards you want to hit the board. Just simply not worth the risk. They can raise you out after the call, you can hit one of your dirty outs and get beat, the board can always pair and with 5 other players the odds of a set or 2 pair out there go up a lot. You just dont have a hand here in most no limit situations.

Will they pay you? I am about to seemingly contradict myself, but if you will get paid and have any nut draws, it can definately paid to draw, just do it cheap or dont do it all. This mostly applies when the action is wild. If you are the last act on the flop or turn and you just have to call the minimum, call away. If your 20 chip call can get you 1000 chips on the river, call with that 3 outer.

Generally, you dont want to call along, drawing, in no limit period. You have got to raise and represent giving yourself an added ally, their fear of being beat and losing chips.

Regards,

Soupie

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Point number 27 A common mistake: Overbetting a good hand

This is a mistake many of you may have not considered because you usually win the hand.

Let me set it up for you with an example, I was in the big blind a couple days ago with AQs, blinds are 50 100. There was one raiser for 300. I call. Flop comes down Q,8,3 rainbow. I check, he bets 300. I promptly raised all in 2000. He folds quickly. Pretty much your average winning hand.

Immediately I knew i made a mistake. The mistake being committing all my chips with the only possible calls being hands that beat me. Sure occasionally, i might catch a KQ here, but if get that call, i dont want it.

So i order, what likely did he have. Being a raiser before the flop he likely had 2 big cards or a pair. Likely, didnt have AA or KK because in this game, those were trapping cards, not a standard 3x big bet. Possible but unlikely. The bet on the flop told me he wanted to take it down right there. A good sized bet that represented the Q. There were no draws to speak of so i wasnt worried there. I knew he wasnt trapping with the joint, such as QQ or 88, because of the bet. Rarely will someone bet a big hand like that heads up on the flop from the button almost everyone traps, at least one round.

So what should i have done based on my read i had the prohibitive best hand here. Remember, i believe strongly you should gamble with the best hands you have not the worst.

In retrospect, I believe either a call or a raise to 600 was appropriate, both being better plays than an all in crash play.

The call would have extended a little rope for a truly aggressive play on the turn on his part to really take all his chips. The raise getting him to commit 300 more chips to get lucky then bet him out on the turn.

In this spot, taking the range of hands he could have had what are my odds of winning letting him have another card. If he had Kx he had 3 cards to hit, if he had an under pair he had 2 cards to hit, if he had AX he was drawing dead to one more card, if he had J10, J9, 109, he had 4 cards to hit. If my read was right, and i am sure it was based on the quick fold, he had anywhere from 0 to 10 percent chance of drawing out on me giving one more card. Now in a pot of a value of 950 chips is it worth giving some one a card for 300 chips when there average chance of drawing out on you is say 5%. The answer is an emphatic yes.

The other issue is giving him a chance to make an inferior hand he is really proud of. If he has Ax and hits the ace on the turn i get all his chips.

By the way, with 5 cards to hit in this situation, you actually have more chance to improve your hand than your opponent.

Lets just say your read is wrong and he has the joint, you're screwed so dont worry about it. Sign up for another.

I think we should have a little fun and poll this situation.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 28 Like offering candy to a baby.

One way you know your in sync with the game and playing well is how well you take the pots that are for sale cheap. For instance, the flop is rag, rag, rag in a 4 way pot, everyone checks, turn 1 more rag, what do you do? When youre playing your confident A game you throw out a bet of about 2X the BB reflexively without even thinking about it. It doesnt even matter what you have, you are playing pure poker, your hand is irrelevant.

Now when your playing your bad game, you will find yourself concentrating on your cards, your number of outs, the miracle you need on the river to begin to make a hand, the possibility that so and so is trapping with a set, the last time you played this hand and how that turned out and so on. In your bad game, see how the negative energy builds? In your B game you become so paralyzed you cant even bet, but somehow you can call. What irony.

Taking small pots when you should has benefits beyond a few chips. It keeps you focused, it positively reinforces your abilitiy to win a pot, it maintains a table image of a winner, its just good poker and your emotions know it.

The larger picture is in your A game, you make a read and go with it, it allows you to make the big plays that build a big stack. You play confidently not arrogantly. You are focused, yet relaxed . Poker is fun and there's nothing else youd rather be doing.

So if you only have your bad game today, what do you do? First of all, if you cant turn it around quick, quit playing. Secondly, go exercise for a few minutes at least . It is amazing how much negativity can dissapate in a few minutes of hard exercise. Do 100 push ups or something. Thirdly, act as if you do have your A game, visualize a great win over and over, put as much detail as you can into your imagery, how did you body feel, what did you smell, what types of things did you hear, what were you drinking at the time, etc. You create your own reality. Reality, after all, is nothing more than what you choose to focus on. (some of you may recognize this as NLP, it is)

Regards,

Soupie

Point 29 "In order to live, you must be willingly to die." -rilla

This post is incredibly easy to write. Coming off a big win last, the world seems a little cheerier. I love waking up a winner even if I am groggy from 3 hours of missed sleep. So how did I win? The above quote says it all.

I went all in over and over at the right times. I stole some pots with timely bets. I reraised the really big hands for large pots. AK stood up and was counted on my team. I was a player in all the pots and attacked the favorable situations. I stayed firmly focused on the goal, making that final table where all the money is.

What i didnt do was focus on bad beats? Sure i had them, but they were just flesh wounds, not fatal. I didnt think about all the previous loses on days gone by. I wasnt worried about what you all thought if I lost ( well maybe a little, i did tell some of the guys in the chat i was likely to shove em all at anytime and I didnt want any crap, if I lost)

I was in the elusive zone, so easy to imagine, so hard to achieve. Completely willing to go all in at any time without regret, yet only picking the best situations. Taking all the free pots as they were offered, not forcing the situation, just willing to accept the gifts gratefully. Patiently waiting for blessings, even at the final table.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 30 Artificial Intelligence can be deadly

On this site and others, there has been a lot of talk about what style to play, what hands to play, what situations to play in, etc. All of this serves as a mock up of real play, similar to building a model suitable for admiring, but not functional in reality. The truth is, the best play at the moment is entirely determined by the table you are playing at, you have to play the table first.

So if your buddy, me or some book tells you, you absolutely have to do this or that to win, we are all collectively full of crap. How exactly can I describe the perfect play without knowing all the variables? I don’t know what you know about the other players at the table, I can’t accurately understand the overall level of aggression at the table, I don’t know if you are on the bubble, in the money, at the first table and so on. Everything I write is artificial intelligence. It has no basis in your table situation.

So here is what is happening to some of you, you are getting whipped around by every whim that comes along. You buddy is certain you have to be very aggressive in the mid rounds of a tourney to win, you watch me and seemingly see I play tighter than an o-ring on uranium, someone else is convinced you have to gamble up early to build a big stack ( that by the way is a seriously big pile of horse pucky, but a different post), and lost in all of this is what is the correct play? All of it and none of it. When you are playing well, you will play the table first and your play at times will reflect all the above styles at times.

Another issue is that often times, trying to emulate a particular style of play, is unnatural to you. You don’t feel comfortable putting your chips at risk, your likely scarred to death because in the back of your mind that little voice is telling you, this is really stupid. You also have to play your personality. Each one of you knows what “style” of play is most successful for you. YOU KNOW HOW YOU PLAY WHEN YOU ARE PLAYING YOUR BEST, PLAY LIKE THAT. It’s not very complicated when you really think about it.

So here’s the rub, stop switching boats in mid stream, play great poker, don’t let the results of your last hand determine what overall correct play is, stick and stay with your best game and be very cautious when altering your strategy. There are no great secrets left to be revealed about poker, no one is going to suddenly give you the holy grail of winning poker, you already have the grail, you just have to use it.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 31 What's in your toolbox?

I have left this little quote as my signature for a few days now.

" He carried a ladder with him everywhere he went and after a while they left all the high places to him." Brian Adreas

I was hoping someone would reply to it, but no luck. So i guess i will write about it myself. The ladder represents constantly reaching for higher and lofty goals, perfectly appropriate for a poker player. Those high places are the people who get all the money, the goal of poker.

Practically this means to continue to look to improve your game. Eliminate mistakes that cost you chips, both in hands you lose (easy) and the hands you win (harder). Consistently playing both awake and interested. Focusing on the positives, ignoring the negative.

Some poker players dont carry a ladder, they carry a shovel, others carry a whip, still others rent a well driller. They constantly are abusing themselve and digging large financial and emotional holes, eventually they get too deep and those players disappear.

So are the tools in your box sufficent to do the job?

Regards,

Soupie

Point 32 Busted Flops

How do you play a hand such as AK or JJ with an unfavorable flop? I will restrict my comments to heads up situations with a raised pot because in multiway flops, you will fold a great majority of the time to a bet for obvious reasons.

First of all, on a busted flop, you know right away whether you playing cards or playing poker. If the first thought in your head is what are my odds of making a pair or a set on the turn and river you are playing cards. If your first thought is what do they have and can i outplay them here, you are playing poker.

Situation number 1. You are on the button and you get a strong bet into you. Easy, lay it down if you can. If you are not pot committed, find a better situation. Most big bets from all players are big hands in this situation, the pots been raised, they know you had something to call or raise, and big bet means "please give me the pot right now, i got some of that."

Situation number 2. You are first to act heads up into a raised pot. You got to know your player here, put on your poker hat. Is he able to lay down a marginal hand in this situation or will he call you with any pair? Is he likely to raise you just to test you? What does he know about you and your play? Have you put a beat on him recently? If he is unbluffable, you are dead to this pot. Dont bluff, it is wasted chips. You can bet if you think you have the best hand, but i think you are better off with check call if you really think you have the best hand against a loose player. You need to bet here if the only time you will get called or raised is with a big hand. Restated, if you know this guys a tightwad like me bet into him, he is the easiest to steal from. I would bet about 50% of the pot size on this steal play.

Situation number 3 Heads up and they check to you. In a raised pot you are forced to bet something. Their check means i dont like my hand more often than not and this is a classic steal opportunity. Now i know this is a busted flop for you, but they dont know this. You could have the joint. How many times have you bet aces and the table just folds up like cardtable? Ok, how much to bet? Easy, against a strong player who knows your play, bet the minimum. Nothing like letting them think they smell a trap. Against an unknown or weak player, bet about 3X the BB. Thats enough to let them know they have to crap or get off the pot here. If you get called, you need to hit, obviously, but you have to take the shot to be successful in no limit poker.

The anxiety many of you have with the busted flops is your expectations of the hand. You expect to make big hands a lot with big starting cards. It is the exception not the rule to flop a pair with AK, it is the exception not the rule to flop a set with JJ. You have got to learn to play poker, not cards, you need to learn to play their hand not yours.

Every type of poker player can be exploited to your advantage, if you know their play. In many of the small tourneys, there is one predominate type of player, loose and active. How do you play them? Flop big rigs or catch big pairs and shove them down their throat. If you dont do that, you are SOL.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 33 The biggest lie in poker

What is one of the first things everyone learns playing poker? Starting hand requirements. What hand beats what and what the best hole cards are. Then armed with that certainty, neophytes all over the world are firing up their computers to do do battle. They know what the best hands are, they are certain they can win.

Then horror or horrors, they sit down with rippy and rippy proceeds to rip them to shreads. Their AK never seems to flop and pair and that idiot with the 7-4 off is creaming them. And when they finally do flop a pair, that same idiot, rip-me-a-new-butthole, will never pay me off. The game is so, so unfair, the best players never seem to win. Then just when is seems hopeless, our neophyte picks up a pair of tens, goes all in, and rippy flat calls and shows aces. It's a conspiracy, its all fixed, stars is fixing the cards so they can't win. They then conclude it sure was dumb to send money to an overseas websight that plays poker with their wife bitchin and moaning the whole time, "see i told you so, you never listen to me."

Our neophyte, has not learned nor will he ever learn to play poker, he only learned to play cards.

You see, a poker player knows a 78 in the big blind can be far more profitable with far less risk, than an AK UTG. A poker player knows the fear/greed relationship each person has with commiting their chips to a pot. A poker player understands that it is irrelevant how you build the chip stack, it only matters whether it gets built. A poker player exploits every opportunity to his advantage while minimizing risk.

A poker player doesnt even know the ranks of hands anymore, they have so long been irrelevant to him. Poker is entirely situational, hand to hand combat, in one long battle that lasts a lifetime.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 34 bizzaro poker: betting into strength, checking to weakness

Ok, lets get this straight, bets represent strength, checking represents weakness. Wait, don't leave yet i am going to make a point, eventually.

So here is another source of strength. Checkcalls. Let me set this up. You are on the button and raise your normal 3X BB bet. One caller. The flop comes you bet 3X the BB after being checked to by the caller, the guy flat calls again. Now if you have missed the flop, you better take a hard look at commiting anymore chips to this pot. This guy has flat called you twice now, he probably has something. Bluff calls are very rare (rilla says he does it, i rarely do, very rarely) The question here is, is betting the turn and/or the river against a guy who has proved he is willing to call you, the best use of your chips when you know you are behind.

I have said it before and I will say it again. Dont bluff the unbluffable and dont bluff into strength. If you have got a dog of hand and you have had your raise called twice, is the best use of your chips another bet or can you find a better situation to get them into the pot. Now it very well may be you need to fire all in on the turn because you have to have the pot, just dont be like the monkey who gets caught in trap because he can't let go of the banana.

Ok, second point, if they check to you on the flop and the turn, what are you waiting for? This is like serving you up a fine meal, you dont stare at, its time to eat. If they check to you twice, please take a seat and enjoy your meal. Here is the interesting part, the scarier the board, the more effective the bet. With two checks, most people have already given up on the pot, they are hoping you bet so they dont have to keep pushing the check button ( dont we get lazy sometimes)

So I bring these points up because I was watching someone last night and he made both of these mistakes. He is a fine winning player. How could he cripple himself overbetting a missed hand, then not take the chips that were offered? It is easy to do, in fact we all do it, we latch on to our AK's like a dying man to his last breath, ignoring all reality that we are beat badly then turn around a check down a pot we could have easily captured, all within a few hands. Bizzaro poker at its finest.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 35 One for the mathoholics and rippy

Ok heres the situation, you have 2-7 off in the big blind, the beer hand, and a small stack raises all in. Everyone else folds and it is left to you to call him down. Exactly what kind of pot odds do you need to call him down?

I ran his through poker calculator on card player.com and here is what I came up with

72o vs. overpair wins 13%
72o vs. 2 overcards wins 32%
72o vs. Ax(cards 3,4,5,6) wins35%
72o vs. pairs 3,4,5,6 wins 28%
72o vs. suited connectors below 7 wins 50%

Now if we make the assumptions our small stack will go all in on these scenerios ( big assumption, but this a small stack trying to survive, got to make an assumptions somewhere here) how much can we call here? Is one more big bet too much?

Ok Blinds are 500/1000 antes 100. So there is 2500 in the pot. Our all iner raises 1000 to 2000. Pot is now 4500. Do you call the bet? You are getting 4.5 to 1 on your money. I would say you would about break even long term on this call based on the above percentages. Anything more than 1 Big Bet is a sucker play. If the above scenerio does not include antes, and you are only getting 3.5 to 1 i think it is a bad play as well.

Part of my conclusions come from, the unproveable but undeniable fact, the over pair will always raise and you will only be getting raised all in sometimes with the other scenerios. In other words an allin hand is much more likely to be a over pair to the 7-2 than a random hand.

In conclusion, based on my analysis, calling anything more than 1 big bet to put a short stack all in on two rags is bad poker and if your call is less than 1 big bet it is automatic call with any 2.

Feel free to argue with me, it is more fun than silence.

Regards,

soupie

Point 36 A really big secret, ssshhhhhhhhhh.

There is a whole load of people who play like me on the internet. Tight/aggressive/with a little BS mixed in. And here one thing we almost never do, reraise without the nuts or near nuts.

If you are playing with me and see a preflop checkraise or reraise, you can be fairly sure I am on AA or KK. I just dont pump the pot with other hands, raise yes, reraise no. Why dont i vary my game more? Because I dont have to, they call me anyways.

I have always wondered why i can sit at table for 45 minutes, not win a hand, pump up a big pair and get called. Aren't they paying attention, do they really think i would sit here this long and try to drive the Q-10 as my big hand? The answer is yes they do, probably 50% of players have as their poker operation plan, "catch the bluffers and spank their little behind." It is a fetish to them to catch bluffers, a self defeating never ending poker quest.

So heres the rub. If you are sitting at table and some rock, suddenly pumps the pot with checkraise or reraise, fold, fold, fold. In the long run this is winning poker and I dont even care if you would have flopped the set or he only had AK, blab, blah, blah. There is no better play in poker than escaping when you are beat especially if it costs you nothing.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 37 The Secret of Macbeth

"Fair is foul and foul is fair,
Hover through the fog and filthy air."

When trying to get reads on people, especially online, you often only have the table position, the size of the bet, and the action to that point to make a judgement.

Now most reads are fairly straightfoward. A rarely benign 3X BB bet that says i have top pair here or a standard raise of 3X BB before the flop which says i have a nice hand i want to play for more money. What Macbeth can teach us is, what if it doesnt make sense?

For example, the flop checks around, you bet the turn when another rag comes off and the button pumps it up. It doesnt make sense, it stinks, why didn't he bet the flop if he had something? Well here is your foul and filthy air, he flopped a joint and is just waiting for you. But you say, there is nothing out there, no straights, no flushes, what could he have? He has a set, he probably had it on the flop and he is just waiting to shove it down your throat.

Another example, you have AQ on the button, a couple of callers, your raise 3x the BB, and the guy under the gun raises 9X the BB. Fair is foul my friend, you just ran into pocket rockets just waiting for you to pay him off. One might say, I have an ace, the odds of him having aces are miniscule. Rather like the statistician who drowns in the river with an average depth of 3 feet.

Here's another, you flop 2 pair with a 3 flush on board, you bet, flat call, check the turn, he checks behind you. You bet the river and blam, he goes all in. Now your faced with big decision. Does he really have the flush and would he be that patient? The answer is yes and yes, and yes you do it too. More than that it is the ace high flush, because he wouldnt want to let you draw to the ace for free.

Another one, you are playing at a table, and suddenly someone puts in a huge preflop bet. He has not played a thing and all of a sudden, he acts like he has aces and doesnt want action. Right on both accounts. He has aces and he is scared of another bad beat.

Conversely, it is pretty easy to figure out who is bluffing with their big bets. They play a lot of hands and show some of them down. Just dont be the one they show down to when they finally get something. If everytime a person plays a hand and you find yourelf wishing you could play too, that is your bluffer.

When you go off to battle with a bluffer, make sure you at least take your .22 caliber. He may only have a sling shot but that still beats a lot of hot air and insults. Many people make the mistake of joining in the party, with inferior hands just trying to get a piece of the pie.

Reading a bluffer is easier than one might think, they bet all their bad hands and will checkraise their good ones. So as long as they are betting you are safe, but once they slow down, watch out. The foul is now fair.

The essense of making good reads is recognizing when you deviate from the norms. Most hands are won by pairs, with small pots or preflop raises that go uncalled. When you get to the land of big bets, you got to use you head.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 38 Do you have worms?

As I have gotten to know some of you, many of you have a huge whole in your game. A parasitic nematode just waiting to bite you in the butt. And what's more, you feed and care for this little sucker like a friend. Many of you show him off like a badge of honor.

So how does our little pet pinworm flourish. He eats a steady diet of vocal bad beats, he drinks the poisonous attitudes of pessimism, he breathes the bad habits of promising poker players, he literally lives in shit up your ass. Each night our little pinworm, we'll call him Tilt, comes out to be scratched and petted.

I hear you wail and moan, but it needs to be scratched, it is so itchy. I just can't control it, I have to scratch my ass. And as is the case all over the world, you get some of that shit under your finger nails, stick your fingers in your buddies mouth, and our buddy tilt has a new home.

Now our mama's taught us long ago to wash our hands and mind our manners. How can we be so gross?

Point 39 Implied Odds.

A good portion of any reason to call a bet or raise is the estimated odds of being able to achieve a pile of chips should you be lucky enough to hit a monster of hand. The obvious question becomes how does one estimate these odds accurately enough to make a call. Say you have my favorite dog hand, 67s, on the button and there is a raiser and 2 cold callers in front of you. How much is too much to call? 10% of your chips, 2%?

In my opinion, you are going to have to gauge the level of post flop aggression, in general, at the table. There are some games where 80% of the action is preflop with one bet on the flop. These are not the games to limp in with marginal hands that need substantial implied odds. If no one is paying off big rigs, you won’t need a big rig to win anyways. You just need balls to bet in position.

This may seems confusing, put it another way, if you are in a poker game, you are not worried about implied odds. Very few hands are being shown down anyways, so your cards are not at issue. The issue is position, the styles of the other players, not cards. Implied odds is a concept for cards games ie the poker games where you are going to have to make hands, because the blinds are not big enough to play poker yet.

Conversely, especially in the small rebuy tourneys I have noticed, the play is relatively passive preflop with massive postflop aggression. Every top pair and a lot of second pairs are flailing away trying to double or triple up. When the chips are flying and huge stacks are being built, find a way to see flops with as many reasonable hands you can.

The hands you are looking to hit with implied odds types of hands, small pairs, suited connectors, suited Ax, one gapper suited cards, etc. are 2 pair and up. You will flop the big rigs less than 5 % of the time. Maybe make a big hand by the river 10% of the time. Most of the time you will not even be able to call to draw to the river. A lot of people that play these hands overvalue their small pairs and draws, making a perfectly legitimate calls preflop and burying themselves post flop with speculative calls to overpairs and big cards that come.

You have to be very willingly to lay down small cards that don’t hit big into anything more than minimum aggression. It just isn’t worth it. I am not saying don’t raise if you know the bettor is bluffing, just don’t call along, hoping to hit that second small pair.

Heads up play, implied odds take a different tone. After just a few hands heads up you will know your player, is he playing his cards, waiting for big aces and pairs to take you on or will play em all. If you are playing an animal like rippy, who will shove them all in repeatedly, you are forced to see all the flops he lets you into. All you have to do is hit one hand and you will double up, probably win. Note I am not saying join the raise party on 5-2, just see the flop if they let you.

Playing a very passive player heads up leaves you with very little implied odds, steal them blind preflop. If the only time they will call or raise is with a joint, don’t be limping with them. You will save a lot of chips finding out where they are at preflop anyways.

With just a little knowledge of implied odds, many a novice poker player has blown himself up. You see, every hand you are dealt has implied odds that are positive in the early rounds. Even a 7-2 off makes 2 pair as much as any other 2 card hand. Most players actually have their lucky hands, K4 or Q7, that they have fond memories of squashing an AA with. Or the time they got hard headed with that A5 and drew out on KK.

Once you understand this concept of implied odds, I suggest you pay it no heed. If you always have a least pot odds, implied odds are just a great bonus that takes you to victory.

Regards,

soupie

Point 40 What do they have, you don’t?

We have all gotten to see the world’s “best” poker players on TV in the last 2 years. Making names for themselves and winning millions of dollars. What makes them so special. Why isn’t that you?

Are they smarter than you? On balance, not likely, poker is not a game for the super intelligent like chess. The same situations repeat over and over with some subtle nuances, but super intelligence is not necessary and could very well be a detriment. It is actually helpful at times to approach the game very simplisticly, if this happens I do this automatically. Takes the emotion out of it.

Are they more patient? More that likely yes. Poker rewards the patient investors who continually reinvest their winnings in situations with positive expectations. It one long game with peaks and valleys. They realize they cant win all the time. That being said, patience is truly a necessary virtue

Are they more trainable, teachable? Very likely yes, all the interviews and writing from the worlds top players talk about how they are constantly reevaluating their game and consulting with coaches. Some have even formed mentoring groups with one top pro training them all. Poker is a work in progress for them.

Do they go on tilt? Not very often. Top pros have long since shed this biggest of all faults. You can not go on tilt and beat the 100’s of the best players. Just can’t be done. Now do some of them pretend to go on tilt, absolutely, but it’s an act.

Is their tolerance for risk higher than yours? Very likely. You don’t get to play for millions without risking 1000’s along the way. Chris Moneymaker is comparable to a lottery winner, that is not the way the story goes with most top pros, they work their way up.

So you say, I want to be a pro, I want to play on TV. All you have do is be like them. Patiently build your bankroll, constantly improve your game, get mentally tough, refuse to say and do dumb things, and be optimistic.

Good luck,

Soupie

Point 41 How and why to bluff and thoughts on Rippy

BigRed specifically asked me to write this post. He mentioned he always seems to get caught bluffing and figures he is doing it wrong. I figure he's right.

The whole purpose of a bluff is too get chips, sometimes a little, sometimes a lot, but you want the chips and you want them now with no further risk. It is important to recognize who is likely to give them to you. Not everyone at the table is bluffable, that is a good thing, but can be very detrimental to your stack if this is who you decide to make a run at.

The best people to bluff at are tight players. People playing very few pots and people that rarely call, they are either in or their out for big stacks. These people value their chips and their chip position and are unlikley to risk their stack on anything other than premium hands. The beauty of betting into them is ( and I really didnt get this until recently) they know your bluffing, they have a great read on you, but they will lay them down anyways because they have very little to call with and it is not worth the risk. They are waiting for aces to come over the top of you and give you your come uppance.

Rippy taught me that while watching him. He sat there and raised about every other hand in a sng and then showed them the worse crap imaginable almost everytime he raised. It was amazing, by the chat, you know that everyone knew he was bluffing. They just wont call or reraise. It was absolutely bizzarre. Why not? Why did they let Rippy just run all over them? They had to be afraid, no other reason. Cowardice. That is why bluffs, even overt bluffs can work. Raising into a field of tightwads will win you a lot of pots and it is whale of a lot of fun.

Ok, when not to bluff. Obviously, against maniacs and loose players, that are unbluffable. If you got to show them down, try to find the hands that have the best possibilities at show down.

But, listen up here, it is still ok to bluff into aggressive players like Rippy, he is looking to bet into weakness and really has no desire to reraise his crap into big hands. 7-4 off plays horribly into overpairs and even Rippy knows this. So what is the difference between Rippy and a maniac player?

Most people that watch Rippy think he is the worse player they have ever seen. They tell him so. It is hilarious. I watched him to figure him out. Rippy is constantly pushing into weakness, like he says. Weakness defined is people checking to him or just calling. You dont see him raising into strength or trying to run over big hands, he is just blasting away at people checking to him. You can almost hear him say, you like those apples?

Rippy is also almost always in postion to fire the big guns. He uses late position to his advantage. Good position and weakness gives permission to bet everytime.

A maniac conversely is just pushing everything, and calling when there is any hope of winning. Rippy just doesnt call unless of course he has the nuts and is just trying to suck em in.

What hands to bluff with. When possible try to fire away with hands that have some hope winning and are likely to be 2 unique cards. ie cards below 10 and small pairs, things like that. If you get called you will be in a much better position to fire more bullets or fold up you tent cleanly. The worst possible hands to bluff with are things like Q5, you can catch your Q and be dead here, especially because your callers are more likely than usual to have picture cards and aces.

Ok bluffing the flop, if you get called should you follow up bet when you have zilch? The answer is almost always yes. The person or persons who call you dont even have a pair on the flopmore than half the time. If they had two unpaired cards before the flop they will pair the flop about one third of the time. Probably 20% of the time they will have pocket pair preflop ( the odds of someone having a pocket pair go way up if they call a bet, of course this is an estiimation). But here's the rub, a portion of the time that pair is not even strong enough to call a good sized bet. So say 60 or 70 percent of the time, you arent even going to get called on the flop bet.

Ok, to conclude, fire away with postion, into weakness, and with unique cards.

Good luck,

Soupie

Point 42 Heads up

The most frequent question i get asked is how do i play heads up. This is truly a difficult part of the game for most people because they have so little experience. All most all their poker play is based on tables with large fields. I havent even played that much heads up, but here are some suggestions.

You generally be heads up with 3 types of players.

1. A tight card player. This person has just had a good run of cards tonight and has happened to make the top 2. He is still playing cards however, but will fold all junk to small preflop raises. Lean on him every flop, usually the blinds are so high that if you can just get him to give you 4 or 5 blinds he is hurting. Never let this player rest. Make him tell you his cards with raises or reraises. Never fold to this man preflop without a raise from him. Dont let him rest. He is playing prevent defense, trying not to loose.

This is primary style of people who hate heads up. They never seem to get any hands and they let the other person run over them, hence why i get asked the question so often.

2. Loose and aggressive play. This person is playing you just like you should be playing the tight player. Raising every hand, trying to push you around. In this situation, you are forced to push back somewhat. I would recommend an all in bet as soon as you get a little something, shove it right back in his face. Now you may lose if he calls you but you are definately going to lose if you let him shove you around everyhand. Most of the time he wont call because he is, of course, bluffing most of the time. Also try to see every flop he doesnt prohibitatively raise you out of. Your goal here is to catch something on the flop, let him continue to jam you and you push back and win the whole thing.

3. The player i try to be, you have absolutely no way to put me on hand. I raise sometimes, call sometimes, but always see every flop if reasonable. I know you only need one hand to win heads up and it usually really sucks. Doyle Brunson won the world series 2 years in a row with 10-2o. How do you play against this style? Hope you over me in cards.

If you need work on your heads up game, stars has heads up matches for as cheap as 5 bucks, go to irc, find someone to watch you play that knows how and then go play 5 or 10 for practice. It could well be worth you time as there is often several thousand dollars difference between 1 st and 2 nd place.

Regards,

soupie

Point 43 Short handed final table play.

Similar to heads up is short handed play at the final table. The blinds are really big compared to your stack and virtually no one has enough chips to afford to be patient more than a few rounds. Now you know you have to win the blinds at least once every round to stay where you are in terms of chip stack size.

At this point you should have a read on every player at the table, so you should be able to make intelligent decisions based on their previous play.

First and foremost, try to stay out of multiway pots unless you have a monster you can shove them all in on. Step back and allow any 2 of them to go to war. Everytime someone busts out you make more money, a lot more.

Next, dont limp any pot preflop without aces or kings. The blinds alone are worth risking your whole stack on a raise. Play everyhand strong or stay out.

Vary your game, dont just raise the button or 1 behind the button every round. That will become transparent after a while. Raise from middle position, sometimes even early position. You much more likely to capture the post with an early position raise sometimes, just because it is so confusing to the players.

Dont be afraid to raise more than once in a row, if the table warrants it. I once stole 5 blinds in a row at a final table, right after my KK got cracked. Won that tourney.

Sometimes you will need to call in the big blind simply because the pot odds warrant it. Before you make this call be sure to consider whether this guy who is raising your blind can be outplayed and how. Do you have to bet into him, checkraise him, perhaps you are better off going all in before the flop.

I have always figured if you have to raise more than about one third of your stack to make a blind steal you might as well put them all in so they dont get a chance to outplay you and you will make them consider the call more carefully.

Now hopefully, you will get a hand or 2 that really does you right and you double up at the final table a couple of times, the winner always does.

Regards,

soupie

Point 44 How to properly go on tilt?

I hate losing to my very core. If I dont win on a particular night, i wake up mad. Yeah i say all the right things like keep your chin up, look at the big picture, its only one night, etc., but there is only one thing antedote to my pain. Winning. I spend the whole day reviewing flashbacks of losing hands, reflecting on what i could have done differently, how i could have avoided the big losses that crippled me. Wondering why my read was that wrong.

Then i look at results for the month, mildly encouraged but knowing i could have done so much better. Then mind starts to focus channel that discomfort, that anxiety. I think tonight i am really going to play well, they are going to have to beat my A game tonight, all you suckers who sit down with me tonight are going to have a tiger by the tail.

Then i get busy and take care of everthing that makes for good poker, get in a work out, clean up the playing space, maybe take a nap, take care of business details, play with the kids for a while. I make sure that when i play i can focus and concentrate because i have not procrastinated on lifes other little details that will distract me while I play.

Lets get real here. When you play you are always fighting your emotions a little bit, if you dont feel something you are either dead or have too much money. When you are done playing, that is when you hash it all out. You have to clear the RAM to make optimize your performance.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 45 What to do when you win?

Winning a large tournament can be quite a high, your bank roll gets a tremdous boost and you feel like the best player in the world. Very likely there are quite a few people who are happy with you, spouses, parents, etc. All of sudden you may have the equivilant of 1 months pay, 3 months pay, maybe even a years pay, all in one fell swoop just from playing poker, what a rush.

Ok, first off, you are not much different than before you won that tourney, you are not suddenly a better player, you dont smell any better, you dont have a license to steal, and you are going to wake up one day older in the morning. Its just money, it doesnt make you a better person or anything.

So when you win as many, many of you have been doing lately (very impressed with number of FTR wins in big tourneys), the first thing to do is cash out of course. Never leave more than a grand or two on any site. You never know which one will go broke and take all the money. Limit your risk of their bankruptcy. Personal opinion there, but these sites are all over the world and we would have no recourse at all if they simply took our money.

Second, do not immediately start playing bigger ( and looser) just because you have this new big fat bankroll. Preferrably take some time to reflect and enjoy your win, but if you have to play, play what you always play. Dont try to climb the ladder 3 rungs at a time. It is very dangerous and you likely will fall and break a leg.

Winning big is just as intoxicating as losing big. It totally screws up your thinking. To win a large mtt, you will have gotten lucky, the coin flips go your way, your big pairs hold up, and you have likely been stealing like a career criminal for at least the last hour of the tourney. Is that the proper mindset to be in when you go out to risk more money? I dont think so.

One more thing, if you have never actually spent your poker winnings on something ie you have never made a cashout and actually spent the cash, take 10% of the win and go spend it on something you would have not otherwise been able to have. This simple act will make poker real for you, positively reinforcing good, solid play that gives you money. If you never get to cash out and use the money, what is the point after all?

Regards,

Soupie

Point 46 The difference between a tough call and bad call.

Tournament players know this feeling. Some what like going to sit down and some sneaky little dude pulls the chair out from under you. There was a chair there just a second ago, then nothing, your butts on floor and you tailbone hurts.

In poker it plays out like this you are cruising along with nice little stack, you bet the flop, get one caller, bet the turn and this wacko has the nerve to checkraise you all in. And now you sitting there with top pair and decent kicker, and about one third of your chips in the pot. What in the heck are you going to do?

Ok, before i answer that, i want you to remember back through all the tournaments gone by and tell me how you built those big stacks early in the ones you were lucky enough to build a commanding stack, say in the first hour or so. Thats' right, you made flushes, straights, full houses, you bet big and what do you know, you punked em. You sent them straight to the rail with your big rigs.

Now the tables are turned and you about to have to make that tough call, the one where your gut tells your beat, but you are so tempted, because after all you have a good hand, maybe the best you have had, and the pot is really big. Blah, blah, blah. Early on in the tourney when someone gets really cute (like you do with big hands) really big raises, check,re, or rere, are big hands most of the time. Sure there are a few animals out there capable of this play as a steal, but not many, and even if people are capable of it, most of the time when they do it, it is a big hand anyway.

Now it is very easily to massage your ego and say you have to make the tough calls to win and your decisions are not always right, tell yourself as many fairy tales as you want, the truth is big calls for all your chips when you still have a competitve stack are usually very stupid. And stupid is as stupid does.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 47 Why are you playing?

Something I have never written about is desire. Why are you playing poker, how is serving you ? What essential purpose is your poker play fulfilling? Entertainment? Excitement? Money? Perhaps, just reinforcing a negative self image?

As I have said before and I will say again, the most fun you will ever have playing poker is cashing out. I dont care how many AA's you bust with 4-7o. I dont care if you are recognized as great player. I dont care if you can win an argument about the proper +EV of PFR UTG+2 with AQo. None of that will necessarily make you more money.

In order to play your best, the money has to do something for you. Just like any job. How will those 2 BB's per hour help your life? How will the extra income fulfill a need? If you can't answer this question quickly and with enthusiam, you need to find an answer quickly. The only reason to play good poker is money in your pocket.

Playing bad poker is much more fun at times. Just like all adrenaline junkies. It is a whale of a lot of fun to win with crappy cards. To over play hands, bluff with nothing, but does that win money long term? I believe the term for that type of player is F I S H.

So why are fish, fish? What drives and motivates them?

Some play for entertainment. They play well within there entertainment budget and really dont mind losing. The best kind of fish, they know they are loser and dont mind it. They are also very pleasant to play with, just be nice to them, they are happy to donate.

Others play for excitement of the big win, like all gambling, they just know the big win is around the corner, if only they could get that one lucky break. These are the people that belong in gamblers anonymous. Unfortunately, these people who are actively destroying their lives are the biggest driver in the poker economy. Without them, there would be no winning online poker possible.

And lastly, there are those who play poker just to prove how worthless they are. It is just one more thing they suck at and they need to constantly reinforce their negative self image. They bitch about bad beats and how unfair it, secretly celebrating their failures, because life sucks. These poor saps will actually find a way to never win. They win and they will order a round on them just so they can go home down.

If you dont have a firm understanding of why you need to play winning poker and how that will impact your life, i suggest you evaluate why you play right now.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 48 (of a planned 30) Middle Tourney Play: How to build a stack

One of the most frustrating things in tournament poker is playing your way to mid way with the blinds ascending and you simply have no cards to play. The frustration builds as the blinds go up and your stack goes down. You can almost figure here i go again, another bubble out.

Ok, here are some strategies to use when you simply have to steal blinds to maintain and grow your stack.

1. Steal all in from the small blind. If it checks around, and you only have one to beat, push. Forget about your hand, just do it.

2. If the flop checks around, and someone weakly beats the turn, push. High percentage steal here. Even better as a checkraise.

3. Raise the blinds in unraised pots with some marginal hands like lower connectors, such as 78, 56, etc. The idea here is if you hit the flop you want to win. Stay away from tempting hands like say Q7. It is total garbage.

4. Absolutely do not back down with good hands, QQ is gold at this point, figure out how to get as many preflop chips in the pot and go for it. Early in the tourney, you may have to lay it down. Mid to late, you have to make a move with a average to small stack.

5. If someone is punishing your blinds, take a stand against him if isolated. Almost all big stacks become gluttens, so you may just have to punk this porker. Dont be afraid, when it comes time go for it.

And lastly, never ever give up. I dont know how many times i have come back from absolutely nowhere to win or place in the good money. You simply dont know when your run is going to come. Sometimes it is flopping trips out of the BB, other times it is AA, followed by KK. Stay focused, ready to pounce, but be every so patient. Poker punishes the impatient.

Regards,

Soupie

Point 49: Extracting maximum value from your winning hands.

One huge difference between good and great players is whether they can extract the maximum value from there winners. Very easily said, very difficult to do.

Well here is what not to do, flop a big rig and immediately shove them all in. Premature echipulation. How many times do you see someone do this then, show the hand to a chorus of nh, gh, or wow. That is horrible play, you may not get another chance at nice pot for an hour and you need those chips to survive coming storm.

So in order to get maximum value, you have to either induce a bluff or disguise your hand as a bluff. Todd Arnold says you need to constantly misrepresent your hand, the same point.

Now to set it up you have flopped a set, flush, straight something really strong. How do you induce a bluff? Well first of all dont bet so much you chase them out of the pot. If you have 2 cards working here the chances they have much are less than normal. Your flop bet is like a permission to chase bet, you cant bet so much they have to leave, but you want to bet enough to get them really interested in the pot. Situation specific but somewhere around 1 to 3 BB's. You generally will want to make this type of bet when you are last to act or there is a large field that saw the flop.

Heads up i think you really should check as people are far more willing to bluff heads up and a permission to chase bet is not necessary and likely will drive them off. It also relies heavily on your previous reads of the players in the hand of course.

Now to induce a bluff, you are just going to have to check the turn or bet a smaller amount than you did on the flop. You have to look weak. Now a strong player will pick up on this and check down with you, but a strong player probably isnt in there swinging with nothing and they probably raise your flop bet to find out where you are and where they are anyways.

Now your hope is your opponent will interput this as a sign of weakness and go all in or make a pot committing bet. Happens all the time.

Sometimes you will have to make your hand look like a bluff. This will depend largerly on table image. If you have shown down some rags and your table is live, check the flop and bet huge on the turn when a rag falls. Maybe checkraise the minimum amount. Think about all the times you watch a play and think to yourself that is bs. The best time to make your hand look like a bluff is on the river when a nothing card falls and way overbet the pot. You will trap both strong and weak players with that one.

The types of hands really worth trapping are hands like an 8 high straight where there is a whole bunch of overcards out there and willing participants who will party with you if they hit their ace for instance. Dont bet them out, give em a chance to hit that ace or that king. For an instance they will be like a schoolboy who just found a quarter, thinking about all the candy they can buy and forgetting about the rattlesnakes in that part of the country.

This post really isnt that good simply because it is really so situationally specific to try to extract chips. Pay attention and learn from you experiences. Keep a journal of all the big hands you flop, how you played them and how you can play them better. This one point is extremely important to long term success. Almost as important as being able to lay down rigs like TPTK.

JUST DONT OVERBET AND CHASE THEM OUT. You are going to have to survive some situations where you opponents have some chance to draw out, make sure you risk you chips in the optimum situations.

{continued by soupie}


Point 50: The 4 Rules

If have been on vent recently, you know them. If you haven't, you get to learn them now. I really believe these 4 rules are the essense or the key to long term success in poker and everything else is just a sub category of these 4 rules.

1. Hold your temper.
2. Win the maximum amount of chips when you win the hand.
3. Lose the least amount of chips when you lose the hand.
4. Dont beat yourself.

1.Hold your temper. How often do you read something like this and just skip this paragraph or stop reading all together. Not another crappy pop psychology lesson for me. No way i need to read that trash. Of course i know that's important. But do you really?

Are your decisions based on whether you have won or lost a previous hand? Have you noticed people are much more likely to play the very next hand after they have lost a big hand? Are you steaming in silence because some bully is running over the table and you basically quit playing and wait for a big pair? Does the action at your other tables spill over into the play at the table you need to make a big decision at? Is the chat pissing you off and taking you off your game?

You see it very easy to say, i have not punched my monitor or broken my keyboard in at least 2 months so i now control my temper. I have arrived or so you think. How many times does a couple moments of angst cause you to bleed chips? Have you really arrived where you completely and totally hold your temper? No one can honestly say yes.

When you get right down to it, the difference between good and great players is how they play about 1% of hands. Being able to escape with pocket queens and not get beat out of the tourney. Knowing your second pair is good and making the tough call. Check raising the thief who reps every flop. Can you still make these plays if things havent been going your way?

Do you remember Clint Eastwood as Dirty Harry when he said "Do you feel lucky punk" all steely eyed with no emotion. That needs to be you.

2. Win the maximum number of chips with your big hands was previously inadequately addressed in point 49. It is largely playing a lot of hands and learning from the experiences.

3. Losing the least amount of chips when you lose the hands. A lot of these types of situations involve you having a medicore hand which is likely the best hand. For example, big blind TP no kicker or button second pair ace kicker. You certain want to take down the pot but only risk a small portion of your stack. Ideally you want to define the hand early with a small bet. They type of bet which looks like an invitation to the pot, yet is just a little too expensive to draw at with no hand no draws. Somewhere around 2x BB is about right.

Here's the point though, if you run into resistance you have to lay it down. What could they possible be raising or check raising you with? It almost always beats these types of hands, 2 pair, tptk, sets, etc. Too many people marry a pot once they bet. Just last night in the 250 40max on paradise, i built a stack on 2 hands. Both times they couldnt get away from poor hands they repped the flop with. You would think anyone with 250 bucks could get away from A3 on a K103 flop or 55 with 3 overs, not those times. Just one lead bet on the flop and they were pot committed emotionally, not chip wise.

Another way to lose the least, is checking behind on the river with most hands. If they cant call unless that rag straightened them up, dont give them the opportunity to checkraise you. This advice is intended for those obvious times when your opponent is drawing. You bet the flop, you bet the turn, call, call. Either they drawing or trapping with a set or something. Dont give them a checkraise opportunity on the river. You are going to win the showdown anyways unless they hit. Dont risk those addition chips when the only time you get called is when you get raised and are beat.

Another interesting way to lose the least and misrepresent your hand is to check a good draw on the flop from the button. Sure you could bet and take down a small pot, but what if you check and hit your draw. Suddenly you have the table confused. If he really had that flush why didnt he bet the flop? Then they will proceed to, he must be bluffing and walla, double up for you. Not really sold on this point just something to think about.

4. Dont beat yourself. How often do you get involved in pots you never should have been in? You had a big stack, 30 BB, you dont need the chips, the steal means nothing to you. Yet almost magically you find yourself stealing from the CO with squat. Then you get called by KK or something, catch a piece of the flop and promptly get dispatched from the tourney. Sure you had pot odds post flop, sure you played aggressive and put them to the decision. Blah, blah, blah, and blah, blah, blah. The thing is why in tarnation are you taking that risk at that point anyways. You are miles from the final table, you have a decent stack. You didnt build that stack playing that way and if you did, please promptly cash out your last 20 bucks and go out for dinner or something, poker isnt for you.

Another way to beat yourself is taking coinflips with crap just because you can afford them. Sure you may take out a player, but is that important at this point of the tourney? If it is not, it is a dumb play. Think about it, ideal hands and situations to play involve good to great cards, position, folding equity, and are far better than coin flip. That is how you build a stack and got to that point in the tourney. It doesnt suddenly turn into a blackjack tourney.

Wishing you all great poker. If your game is great, you have already won, the details have yet to be worked out.

"Go ahead, make my day." Win a bunch of cash.

Point 51 The importance of the early double up. An essay unworthy of consideration.

There has long been a debate whether the risk of an early double up is worth the reward of a big stack. How important is the big stack? How much risk is acceptable to obtain one? Is there even an answer considering your playing style?

A TAGGy player who is studies the table and looks for the best opportunity to get the chips in play rarely has the big stack. They are consistently ahead when the chips go but are at great risk of ruin. If they are ahead say 70/30 all in 3 times and are called they will be out of the tourney 70% of the time with 3 all in showdowns. Not exactly acceptable in my mind. I would say camping and pushing the best hand short stacked is a suboptimal strategy. You can have the satisfaction of knowing you got beat by a donk, but they are still in the tourney and you are out.

Now for instance, lets say you have the big stack and are unbustable. You have taken some chances early in the tourney, hits some rags and got paid on your big hands. Forget about their great risk of ruin with that type of play. We will get to that. What is the reward?

You are now the king of the table. Every hand goes through you and everyone knows you can bust them. A fair amount of players will change their play based on your stack. Ever heard, “I can’t pick on his blind, he has the big stack,” or “I can’t play back at him, he has the big stack.” Many times every hand for the small stacks becomes do or die, they stop playing poker with the big stack

You as the big stack can and probably have taken them off their game. You now are probably playing enough hands you are unreadable, you have shown enough aggression everyone is on notice they better be willing to bring more than a bb gun to showdown with you, the table is focused on you. The majority of the short stacks are tilted, jaded, and plain miserable. They think you are the lucky fish da jour. Just one more screw up that Lee Jones picked to win today.

You see the power of the big stack, is what you have done to their head. Poker is a very simple game to learn the rules, very difficult to learn to control your emotions when times are tough. In poker times are tough about 90% of the time. Its not fair you have a 3 outer on the river, that your aces got outdrawn by kings, that you haven’t had aces in 3 days, that your buddies have all made ten times more than you in the last 3 months, that Gator93 owns you like a cheap suit, that Wachovia always hits his small pairs, that PokerHO can play Q4o and I can’t. Waaaaaaaaaaah.

Those thoughts are exactly the type of crap that is going through the head of the majority of small stacks. Is this a good thing for the big stack? Of course, who else you would you rather play than a bunch of tilted little babies.

As an aside, the very best way to tilt someone is show a big bluff. I have seen very good players go off like a rocket if show them a couple rags played like aces. You can tilt them for months. Every time they play with you searing painful memories cripple their judgment. It would actually be less painful if you had punched them in the nose. They will never forget and take that bluff into account every time you play with them. People actually find me to talk about some play I have long since forgotten months ago. Guys let it go.

Now that we have established the big stack is desirable, how much risk is acceptable to obtain one? I have no clue, I am not a mathematician nor do I even believe the answer lies there. Poker is a people game. The answer for me is who are these people and how can I get their chips the best and fastest way possible without taking unnecessary chances. What will work at one table is a disastrous strategy at another.

Some general ideas however for chipping up in the first hour of a tourney. Raise every hand you play with position on limpers. No cheap flops for the blinds and no cheap flops for limpers.

Be willing to play for a set in a multiway pot. Small sets are the most powerful flop in no limit holdem. They are often unreadable and are paid off to the highest degree. Even the best players will pay off sets at times just because you cant fold just because someone might have a set. The play is just too weak.

Try to see the flop with the most active players. One good flop and it is double up plus. If someone is willingly to play for all their chips over and over accept the invitation if it is cheap enough to get a seat at the party.

Figure out who the smart tight players are and be willing to aggressively play post flop poker with them if the flop is raggy.

Stay alert and be willing to take down the pots no one wants. It should be a crime to not bet if someone has checked to you twice. You don’t have to wait for Christmas to get presents.

Watch the way the table plays the first couple rounds. Often peoples actions early can give you some pretty good clues how you can exploit them. The guy who just calls under the gun with QJ tells you he is a weak player looking to hit hands. The guy bets a flop instantly is very aggressive and will try to bully the table.

(posted unfinished)

Point 52 Miscellaneous

1. Dont camp with a big stack. Stay engaged and looking for opportunities. When you finally get a stack there is tremendous pressure to protect it. Continue to play smart position poker.

2. If you are going to play a pot against 1 or 2 limpers, raise with position.

3. Dont let the small blind in cheap when you are the big blind with any sort of hand.

4. There comes a point in a tourney you have to play hands, if you lose, you lose, but if you dont play you lose anyways.

5. A smaller bluff often looks more dangerous.

6. Watch out because adopt a short stack charities can get expensive over time.

7. Learn to float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. The best poker is often times invisible until you destack them. Most of the time everyone is focused on the table action player and could care less what you have.

8. Learn to respect the call when you have nothing. Their "nothing" is almost always more than your nothing and often they wont release. The old monkey with his hand in the cage.

9. Never underestimate the ability of a donk to call with very few outs deep in a tourney. Make sure you punish them harshly when you hold up.

10. The odds never change. You dont have to play a bad situation, you can just as easily wait and get the same bad odds to play all your chips later. Many times be patient and give yourself a better opportunity.

11. When someone bets into you on the flop after you have raised, they are often weak and are just trying to take the pot down right now. Betting into strength is often the sign of a weak hand such as top pair no kicker.

12. Blocking min bets should be attacked for the same reason.

13. Bet your draws if you want to win big pots. You can take the chips right there, and if you get called and hit, you have effectively misrepresented your hand.

14. Small pots never win tourneys, be very willing to let them go if you are in an unraised pot. Top pair on a board full of draws and possible made hands is junk on the flop.

15. Never bet the river if you cant be called by a hand worse than yours. Dont buy a pot you own.

16. If someone insta bets a scare card, they are very likely bluffing and were going to bet the flop no matter what. Be more willingly to checkraise or reraise them.

17. Check the stack size of the raiser before calling with small pairs. You may not have implied odds to draw.

18. The next time you are tempted to just see the flop from position remember how times you have busted someone from the blinds with crap. Raise or fold there.

19. The min reraise preflop is the most likely time you are up against aces.

20. Smooth calling big pairs in early position can be a very effective way of trapping in games that are very active and full of level 1 players (ie they only think about their cards.)

21. If you are lucky enough to get an active player to your left you are playing a pot with, let him bet the flop and turn before you lower the hammer, he will not be able to release after betting it twice and often will completely bury himself with an allin steal attempt.

22. If you bet preflop and the flop with one caller in position, if the caller pushes allin on a turn scare card they are bluffing.

23. Dont contest small pots you can not bet, checkraise, or reraise in. Dont go broke in unraised pots.

Point 54 Spotting strength and weakness

Spotting weakness.

1. Guy bets the flop and checks the turn with position. Very weak.

2. A push in an obvious raise situation with deep stacks. Weak.

3. Min betting out of position into a raiser. Top pair or draw. Weak.

4. Action player bets or raises a scary board on the flop. Usually 2nd or 3rd pair.

5. Small blind pushes with stack under 3 m into BB. Random hand.

6. Big blind overplays hand into limped small blind. Very weak.

7. All in on the river when obvious draws miss. Weak.

8. When someone bets into you on the turn when a scare card comes up. This is situational specific when you have been the flop agressor with position and the player could reasonably expect you to bet. Weak.


Spotting strength

The primary way to spot strength is obvious. A preflop reraise. Very few players use this move as a bluff or semi bluff. Rizen is the only player I can think of that uses it with any frequency and I have seen him get burned bad with it. It is a very dangerous move but does come with more reward. Note the amount of the reraise is often not relevant to the read, the min reraise is aces or kings with a lot of players.

Second most common move is a limp out of position. When you get deep into a tourney and someone just limps for a big portion of their stack, this screams big hand, please give me action. Why else give up folding equity.

Another common strength move is to flat call a 3x raise out of the small blind. Many people will call more liberally from the big blind especially if they have last action, but the flat call from the small blind practically shouts I have a pair. Now of course this read is dependant on the level of the blinds but for example the blinds are 100/200 and the small blind flat calls a 600 chip raise, pay attention.

Often times, it becomes very easy to disrespect the guy who just calls a raise. WE THINK IT IS WEAK TO BE A CALLER, SO WE AUTOMATICALLY ASSUME ANYONE WHO CALLS IS A WEAK PLAYER THEREFORE IT FOLLOWS THEY HAVE A WEAK HAND. Total logic error. Often times the weak player calls with strong hands, calls with there weak hands, calls with everything. Further more they cant be run over. When they have the best hand, let them have their small pot. The only other thing you can do about it is let them have a big pot. That is your 2 choices many times.

Post flop strength is all about interrupting the code. Strong means weak except when it means really strong. Your often times better to find out on the flop with a reraise on the flop when you intend to continue to play the hand. It will save valuable chips verses calling down the turn and the river with just top pair. If they have a set or 2 pair, you want to know right now.

The most reliable tell is the checkraise or the limp the flop reraise the turn. Basically anytime someone tries to look weak then comes over the top it almost never it a bluff unless perhaps the initial bet is very weak, a min bet. When you are faced with this situation you have to give 2 pair credit if you are not pot committed. Bluffers almost always lead and overbet the pot.

The size of the bet often gives valuable information. When some one takes great pains to bet just enough to pot commit you without going all in, they want you in. When someone just goes all in, they want you out. Now they may easily want you out because they are afraid with the best hand, but none the less they want you out.

On the turn, if someone makes a larger continuation bet, they more than likely have what they are representing. 2 pot sized bets on the flop and turn indicates a big hand. Usually someone who missed the flop will give up on the turn against a cold caller. Not always but usually. Strength usually continues to make larger bets, weakness conversely will make smaller turn bet at times.

Someone who bets the flop and goes all in on the turn usually has a hand such as tptk or an overpair and is panicking. They are afraid of the draws and want the hand over with now.

Now if you are playing deep stack poker and you are betting top pair on the flop and again on the turn, both pot sized bets, and you get flat called twice, be afraid very afraid. You are more likely than usual to have just run into a set especially against a sharp player. IF A GOOD PLAYER SUDDENLY BECOMES A CALLING STATION, YOU ARE IN TROUBLE WITHOUT A BIG HAND. They know they can’t draw correctly based upon your large bets and yet they are willingly to let you bet and give you a free card or 2. Alarm bells should be going off.

On the river, strength is usually found in small value bets they hope you will pay off, especially if there is a 4 flush or 4 straight on board. Many times it is however correct to pay them off if there is some chance they are bluffing and you can beat a bluff. Just take some time and make sure there is some chance you can win the pot. Often with some reflection there simply is no way you can win the pot based upon how they played the hand and what you hold.

The other major strength move on the river is just a flat push. It is designed to look like a bluff and will catch some fish. Most of the time however, if you are going to bluff push the chips go in well before the river. Why give your opponent 7 cards before you try to take the pot?

{Restored at soupie's request}

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