Dummies Guide to ICM on the bubble

I dedicate this to all of you who are, like me, are very bad at math or want to simplify the way they think about ICM. This is geared towards 1 table SNGs but it is useful in any bubble play.

ICM has always been confusing to me and although I tend to make pretty good choices, I feel I fold clear shoves and call clear folds way too much. So as part of my own study I decided to use an ICM calculator to determine what my shoving/calling range approximately needs to be during high blind bubble play.

I preset a few controlled circumstances to see how the tightness/looseness of our opponents affects optimum play. I based each range on our stack size relative to the pot size and our opponents stack sizes. Everything is done generically and for the purpose of getting an idea of what we should be shoving/calling with during certain games against certain opponents on AVERAGE.

I broke the experiment into two halves. The first is our shoving range vs. two types of opponents and the second is our calling range vs. those same types.

Within each group I specify our stack size relative to the pot size and whether we are a short/big stack or just an average stack. Note that I grouped being a short stack and big stack together because I found their ranges are very similar. I guess if we are short we open up because need chips and if we are big we almost equally open up to put pressure on the smaller stacks. Just so you know, you actually open up a bit more with a big stack than with a short stack. For example if the chart says we shove 66+ and A10o+, you can probably shove 55+ and A9o+ with the big stack.. or somewhere along those lines.

The whole reason for this experiment was to give myself a baseline to start with. I wanted to improve my understanding of how loose/tight I need to be in regards to my stack size vs other stack sizes without having to do complex calculations while I play.

This is by no means a hands chart for a newbie to play by. I simply wanted to share my findings with players who already understand what ICM is and might want to delve further into their study of it based on these findings.

All shoving ranges are for when folded to.

+EV Shoving Ranges- With villains having a 10% calling range (55+, A10o+, A8s+, KQs)

PF Pot= 10% of stack (example- $400 pot, $4000 stack)
Short stack or big stack
SB- Any two
BTN- 66+, A10o+
CO- 99+, AQo+

Average stack
SB- 22+, 76s+
BTN- 99+ ,AQo+
CO- 1010+, AKo+

PF Pot= 20% of stack (example- $800 pot, $4000 stack)
Short stack or big stack
SB- Any two
BTN- Any two
CO- 55+, A8s+

Average stack
SB- Any two
BTN- 22+, 76s+
CO- 77+, A10s+

PF Pot= 30% of stack (example- $1200 pot, $4000 stack)
Short stack or big stack
SB- Any two
BTN- Any two
CO- Any two

Average stack
SB- Any two
BTN- Any two
CO- 22+, J10+

+EV Shoving Ranges- With villains having a 25% calling range (22+, A2o+, K10o+, K8s+, Q10s+)

PF Pot= 10% of stack
Short stack or big stack
SB- 44+, KQs+
BTN- 77+, A10o+
CO- 88+, A10s+

Average stack
SB- 66+, A9s+
BTN- 99+ ,AJs+
CO- 1010+, AQs+

PF Pot= 20% of stack
Short stack or big stack
SB- 22+, 45o+
BTN- 44+, A7s+
CO- 66+, A9s+

Average stack
SB- 22+, Q10s+
BTN- 77+ , A10o+
CO- 99+, AJs+

PF Pot= 30% of stack
Short stack or big stack
SB- Any two
BTN- 22+, A3s+, KJs+
CO- 44+, A7s+

Average stack
SB- Any two
BTN- 55+, A8o+
CO- 77+, A10o+




------------------------------------------------------------------

All calling ranges are for against one shover.

+EV Calling Ranges- With villains having a 10% shoving range (55+, A10o+, A8s+, KQs)

PF Pot= 10% of stack
Short stack or big stack
BB- JJ+
SB- JJ+
Btn- JJ+

Average stack
BB- QQ+
SB- QQ+
Btn- QQ+

PF Pot= 20% of stack
Short stack or big stack
BB- 1010+, AKo+
SB- JJ+, AKs
Btn- JJ+

Average stack
BB- JJ+
SB- QQ+
Btn- QQ+


PF Pot= 30% of stack
Short stack or big stack
BB- 99+, AQs+
SB- 1010+, AK0+
Btn- JJ+, AK

Average stack
BB- 1010+, Ako+
SB- JJ+
Btn- QQ+

+EV Calling Ranges- With villains having a 25% shoving range (22+, A2o+, K10o+, K8s+, Q10s+)

PF Pot= 10% of stack
Short stack or big stack
BB- 88+, AJs+
SB- 99+, AJs+
Btn- 99+, AQo+

Average stack
BB- 1010+, AKo+
SB- 1010+, AKo+
Btn- JJ+, AKs+

PF Pot= 20% of stack
Short stack or big stack
BB- 77+, A10s+
SB- 88+, AJo+
Btn- 88+, AJs+

Average stack
BB- 99+, AQo+
SB- 1010+, AQs+
Btn- 1010+, AK0+


PF Pot= 30% of stack
Short stack or big stack
BB- 55+, A9s+
SB- 66+, A10s+
Btn- 88+, AJo+

Average stack
BB- 88+, AJo+
SB- 99+, AQs+
Btn- 1010+, AKo+



Conclusions/Tenets of ICM play:
1. It takes a MUCH better hand to call with then to push with.
2. Short handed, PPs go up in calling value and drawing hands (i.e. AK) go down in calling value. AKo=1010 basically for calling purposes.
3. Our shoving range increases exponentially each seat we get closer to the BB.
4. Your average player is WAY too tight in shoving and WAY too loose in calling during high blind play. If we master ICM we have a gigantic advantage over the average player because of this.
5. The tightness/looseness of your opponents does not affect our shoving/calling ranges as much as I thought it would. Stack size/blind size is much more important.
6. Our default should be to assume our opponents have a tight shoving range and a loose calling range until they prove to us otherwise AFTER high blind bubble play begins.
7. Once the preflop pot is 1/3 of our stack, we are almost always shoving any two when folded to on the button in normal games.
8. The big stack has a HUGE +ev advantage.
9. Don't call shoves from weak tights with AQ/AJ/KQ unless you have a very short or very big stack.
10. Against a loose villain we call looser and shove tighter.
11. Against a tight villain we call tighter and shove looser.


Misc Notes:
1. Short stack means we are the shortest stack but not crippled, big stack means we are the biggest stack but not a dominating stack.
2. For average stack calculations I just set all stacks the same size to make things easier.
3. Range %s=villains' average ranges.
4. I used SNGEGT to make these calculations.

Let me know if there are any glaring mistakes or if anything needs to be clarified/added. Thanks for reading!

O

Pure excellence.

I liked your conclusions. They touch the essentials of winning sngs.

this is the only thing that stuck out to me as questionable

10. Against a loose villain we call looser and shove tighter.

if a villain is loose, i am automatically tight in comparison to them already. are you suggesting I tighten up even more? I understand that the point when you're shoving is often to take the blinds without a fight, but honestly, shoving good (not necessarily great) hands against loose opponents is where I usually take over the endgame.[/quote]

Originally Posted by Kijjo

this is the only thing that stuck out to me as questionable

10. Against a loose villain we call looser and shove tighter.

if a villain is loose, i am automatically tight in comparison to them already. are you suggesting I tighten up even more?

[/quote]

Not at all. You should only tighten enough so that its +ev. I just meant you shove tighter against looser people than you would against average opponents. That list isn't that as some huge revelation.. I just put it there as kind of a self checklist of things I want to remember for myself.

"10. Against a loose villain we call looser and shove tighter."

I agree. If someone calls you lighter there is a much greater risk of elimination. Also, because we have less FOLD EQUITY there is less value from blind stealing against those loose callers.

If we have a good chip advantage this is less important, because even if we lose a pot we still have great chances of winning and if we win we get rid of that annoying loose player.

Nice one. That's really useful.

thanks a lot for this. I have an average understanding of ICM, and this is great review for me.

i understand ICM alot better now, but i still dont know what EV% stands for! somone clear that up?

Something people should pay attention too is just how much our ranges change between SB and BTN.

Originally Posted by frreshprince

i understand ICM alot better now, but i still dont know what EV% stands for! somone clear that up?

Expected value

sticky?

I think this is a pretty good overview and obv you put a lot of effort into this/time so thank you for that.

Also let it be known that your opponents calling/shoving ranges change your calling/shoving range. The only thing that stood out to me was that you can profitably shove WAY wider than this in the listed positions.

I know this is an old thread, but i'm hoping that someone is around to answer a couple of Nooobie questions:

Short stack means we are the shortest stack but not crippled, big stack means we are the biggest stack but not a dominating stack.

Do I assume that for the above point you refer to only the active stack sizes?

Range %s=villains' average ranges

Could you please clarify this point? I'm guessing that you mean if there're 2 baddies left to act after my shove, I should take the average of both their ranges. Yes? Or did i misThink?

Cheers!

Also - could someone please confirm that the ranges specified are as per SnGWiz?

e.g. 77+, ATs+ = top 7.5% in SnGWiz, but is more like top 5.6% in PokerStove

apologies for the denseness

Stove and WIZ use different ranking systems. WIZ uses Sklansky-Karlson rank-order, while Stove uses another one - I can't remember which one). The difference is likely caused by the fact that there are a lot more combos (12) of two unsuited cards, compared to suited cards (4 combos) and pocket pairs (only 6 combos). So graphically one will look like it's including more cards than the other if it includes more suited and PP hands

7.5% in WIZ = 77+,ATs+,AJo+,
7.5% in Stove = 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AQo+
7.5% in Equilab = 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+ (Depends which opening chart you use)

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

I know this is an old thread, but i'm hoping that someone is around to answer a couple of Nooobie questions:



Do I assume that for the above point you refer to only the active stack sizes?



Could you please clarify this point? I'm guessing that you mean if there're 2 baddies left to act after my shove, I should take the average of both their ranges. Yes? Or did i misThink?

Cheers!

This isn't clear from the post, but I assume he is referring to Hero's stack size and how it fits in with all the other stacks at the table whether they are active or have folded.

When he says average calling ranges is 10%, he means each player left in the hand will call with top 10%.

Thanks again, Nakamura!

[WRT the hand ranges, I think I'll stick w/ the SnGWiz numbers for now, as they appear to tie in with the ranges Outlaw describes in the OP.]