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Originally Posted by Pelion
Others have touched on this, but I'll say it more clearly (in a constructive/supportive way). This is really horrible thinking. If his calling range for the 3bet is as you say it is then you are ahead!
Thanks, and I hope my questions here don't come across at all as though I am questioning the validity of your advice, because I'm not, but I think if I post back with my thoughts on what you've said, hopefully it'll help me understand why I'm not thinking about this the right way. I get it - I really do, I am playing scared and thinking the wrong way because I'm tilted, so I want to understand so I can fix this.
You say that if (and it's a big if, but we'll go with it) my 3bet calling range for him is correct that I'm ahead. Yeah, marginally on the flop with about 56% equity, but if he folds QQ on the flop, then I am behind 73% of his turn range (16 combos of straights vs 6 combos of sets), and have only 23% equity when I'm behind.
You say I've got to think about not just how much of his range I'm ahead/behind, but about the equity as a whole, but if his turn range really is AQ/JJ/TT then I have only 43% equity against that range as a whole. As you said, that's enough to call a pot sized shove, but there's more than that behind, and betting the turn then puts me in a bad situation:
On the turn, we have $21.50 behind with a $13.30ish pot, so if I make even a small bet (say $7) and he shoves I have about $14 left to call into a pot of about $34. If he turned his cards face up, I couldn't do that - I'd need 29% equity, and I have 23% against a made straight.
Of course it's not actually quite as thin as that - I've got to call because he is likely also shoving his undersets.
Also, as others have said, he has shown no massive sign of strength so far. Why is the only hand he can have the nuts?
OK, so he hasn't shown a lot of strength so far, but as I said if I bet the turn I must call a shove, even if I bet small. What do I do - try and check it down? I can't try and check down top set, so I think I have to bet, even though it means I am commited to stack off.
My name is Boris, and I have monsters under the bed.
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