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So it's literally been years since I've done this. Like, I don't think I've done it since Black Friday. I was very pleasantly surprised to see how much my game has aligned with it just working from memory, but it would still be hugely appreciated if anyone gave their thoughts.
BTN Open [2bb]: 59.8%: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T3s+,95s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,5 4s,A2o+,K3o+,Q5o+,J7o+,T7o+,97o+,87o (I just went with PokerStove here because whatever, this range isn't going to be static anyway.)
BB Defend: 24.5%: 77+/22-66 (50% of the time)/ATo+/KJo+/QJo+/54s+/75s+/T7s+/J7s+/Q7s+/K5s+/Axs [1]; He flats with several of these, but 3bs to 7bbs with 16.4% of Any Two Cards: 99+/66-22/AT+/KJo+/KQs/K7s-K2s/Q8s-Q7s/J8s-J7s/T7s/97s-T8s/54s-65s [2]
BTN Continue against 3b: 36.8% of opening range (22% of ATC): 77+/KJo+/KTs+/T8s+/76s+/Axs/A3o+; we flat whatever we don't 4b. We 4b to 18bbs with 20.1% of opening range (12.5% of ATC): 99+/AQ+/AJs/A3o-A9o [3]
BB Continue against 4b [assuming for now that he never calls, and shoves for 100bb]: 56.9% of 3b range (9.3% of ATC): 99+/AJ+/KQ/ATs+/22-66
BTN Call 5b shove: 43.3% of 4b'ing range (5.4% of ATC): 99+/AQ+/AJs
[1] Since SB is a nit and it's expected that BB defends more in general, this number will actually be quite a bit higher. If we assume that the nit in the SB folds to a steal 83% of the time, then BB actually needs to defend 31.2% to keep the blinds from being exploited.
[2] ATo and KJo are tweener hands. They are the only hands here listed that will be raised for value(ish), yet we intend to fold them to a 4b. It's been demonstrated by database after database that pretty much everyone (ranging from expert to novice) make fatter profits in a vacuum with these hands by 3b/f'ing them in ATS spots, and going through the math, it actually, interestingly enough, makes our range more balanced.
[3] If we do 2.5 → 8.5 → 22, let's say, then you would have to remove A4o from your 4b/f'ing range because villain is getting better odds and so can exploit you if you fold 57% of the time. This affects your continue against 3b range because now you have 12 more combos you need to add to your calling range to avoid being exploited by a mere resteal. Alternatively, you can add 88 to your 4b/call range to balance it out, though that puts you 0.1% over (I like to go slightly under to give myself a little leeway for when I think that there's some extenuating circumstance that makes me want to 4b/f some other crap hand). This is why I say making it smaller makes it harder to exploit us because it makes us so that we don't have to go for super slim value or flat more hands than we feel totally comfortable doing.
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