[spoonitnow strategy] Study Poker With Spreadsheets (Part 5): Checking to Induce

Following the same organizational ideas as we have used so far in this series, this week we’re going to look at one of my favorite topics in poker: checking to induce a bluff. We’re going to make a simple spreadsheet along the lines of what we have made in the previous four weeks of this series to analyze an example river situation.

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CO: $15.95 (319 bb)
BTN: $13.55 (271 bb)
SB: $13.96 (279.2 bb)
Hero (BB): $5.32 (106.4 bb)
MP: $8.58 (171.6 bb) {69/15, 1/3 fold to cb, 14 hands}

Preflop: Hero is BB with A A
MP calls $0.05, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.25, MP calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.57) K 6 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.32, MP calls $0.32

Turn: ($1.21) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.72, MP calls $0.72

River: ($2.65) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.80

So I figure villain's range on the river before any action is like:

{ KK-33, AKs, K2s+, 76s, AdQd, AdJd, QdJd, AdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, AKo, K2o+, 76o }

I left him some backdoor FD's from the flop just to account for the times that he goes for a pure float which is pretty conceivable with this type of player. I left him only the diamond combos after the turn tho.

Something like top pair plus he'll likely bet when I check, as well as some busted draws, say just the BDNFDs he had from the turn:

KK,77-33,AKs,K3s+,76s,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,AKo,K3o+,76o

When I check he's probably checking behind something like:

QQ-88,K2s,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd,Qd9d,Jd9d,Td9d,K2o

And when I bet he's probably calling:

QQ-88,AKs,K8s+,K4s-K2s,AKo,K8o+,K4o-K2o


To simplify things I'm just going to put all things in the context of an all in bet, say 2/3 pot. Say $1.80.






It's a hell of a lot faster to get the calcs done like this once you've broken down your opponent's range.

I'm glad you're getting some good use out of this. It's an extremely powerful tool for studying.